Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Pocatello, ID

228 
WWUS85 KPIH 221316
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
716 AM MDT Wed Aug 22 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOW UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 413...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 476...

IDZ413-230300-
/O.EXT.KPIH.FW.W.0010.180822T1316Z-180823T0300Z/
Caribou Range/Caribou NF-
716 AM MDT Wed Aug 22 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 413...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zone 413.

* WIND...Thunderstorms wind gusts to 40 mph with storms and 
  potentially 60 mph with stronger storms.

* THUNDERSTORMS...Scattered wet and dry thunderstorms. Some
  storms may produce moderate rainfall. 

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly based on these criteria
for Southeastern Idaho:

 * Relative humidity at or below 15 percent and wind gusts of at
least 25 mph in the mountains, or 30 mph in the Snake Plain.

 * Thunderstorm coverage of 25 percent, without specific rainfall
criteria.

 * Other high impact events deemed critical by the National
Weather Service and area fire management agencies.

&&

$$

IDZ476-230300-
/O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0010.180822T1800Z-180823T0300Z/
Lemhi and Lost River Range/Challis NF-
716 AM MDT Wed Aug 22 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 476...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zone 476.

* WIND...Thunderstorms wind gusts to 40 mph with storms and 
  potentially 60 mph with stronger storms.

* THUNDERSTORMS...Scattered wet and dry thunderstorms. Some
  storms may produce moderate rainfall. 

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly based on these criteria
for Southeastern Idaho:

 * Relative humidity at or below 15 percent and wind gusts of at
least 25 mph in the mountains, or 30 mph in the Snake Plain.

 * Thunderstorm coverage of 25 percent, without specific rainfall
criteria.

 * Other high impact events deemed critical by the National
Weather Service and area fire management agencies.

&&

$$

340 
WWUS85 KPIH 221902
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
102 PM MDT Wed Aug 22 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER 
ZONES 413 AND 476...

IDZ413-230300-
/O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180823T0300Z/
Caribou Range/Caribou NF-
102 PM MDT Wed Aug 22 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 413...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zone 413.

* WIND...Thunderstorms wind gusts to 40 mph with storms and 
  potentially 60 mph with stronger storms.

* THUNDERSTORMS...Scattered wet and dry thunderstorms. Some storms
  may produce moderate to heavy rainfall along with hail. 

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly based on these criteria
for Southeastern Idaho:

 * Relative humidity at or below 15 percent and wind gusts of at
least 25 mph in the mountains, or 30 mph in the Snake Plain.

 * Thunderstorm coverage of 25 percent, without specific rainfall
criteria.

 * Other high impact events deemed critical by the National
Weather Service and area fire management agencies.

&&

$$

IDZ476-230300-
/O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180823T0300Z/
Lemhi and Lost River Range/Challis NF-
102 PM MDT Wed Aug 22 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 476...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zone 476.

* WIND...Thunderstorms wind gusts to 40 mph with storms and 
  potentially 60 mph with stronger storms.

* THUNDERSTORMS...Scattered wet and dry thunderstorms. Some storms
  may produce moderate to heavy rainfall along with hail. 

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly based on these criteria
for Southeastern Idaho:

 * Relative humidity at or below 15 percent and wind gusts of at
least 25 mph in the mountains, or 30 mph in the Snake Plain.

 * Thunderstorm coverage of 25 percent, without specific rainfall
criteria.

 * Other high impact events deemed critical by the National
Weather Service and area fire management agencies.

&&

$$

869 
WWUS85 KPIH 230308
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
908 PM MDT Wed Aug 22 2018

IDZ413-476-230415-
/O.EXP.KPIH.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180823T0300Z/
Caribou Range/Caribou NF-Lemhi and Lost River Range/Challis NF-
908 PM MDT Wed Aug 22 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 413 AND 476...

The threat for scattered thunderstorms has ended. There is some 
lingering isolated thunderstorms in the extreme southeast end of 
zone 413 near Bear lake.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
314 AM MDT Wed Aug 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...An area of Low Pressure is forecast to track
northeastward across Central Idaho today and into Montana tonight.
This will place SE Idaho within a favorable area for isolated to scattered
Thunderstorm activity today, with Thunderstorms already
developing across the area. The combination of favorable shear,
instability and moisture levels will allow for a few strong
storms, and possibly even a Severe Thunderstorm today, with the
Bear Lake area northward along the Wyoming border being favored
for the strongest activity. Any Thunderstorm will have the
potential to produce strong outflow winds along with locally Heavy
Rainfall and Hail. Have added Gusty Wind wording to the forecast
package as this is the most likely severe weather element. Have
increased Precipitation Potential as well as forecast
Precipitation through this evening based on observed weather and
high resolution model trends. Have made the largest increase
across the Central Mountains. As we head through the Evening,
Shower and Thunderstorm activity will gradually exit the area with
the majority of this activity exiting into Wyoming and Montana
around Midnight.

A transient Ridge of High Pressure will build into the region on Friday,
bringing a return to dry weather (for most of the day) along with
rebounding Temperatures. Another approaching Low Pressure trough
will promote breezy conditions across the region as we head into
Friday afternoon, along a low-end chance of an isolated Evening
Thunderstorm across the Central Mountains.

Breezy conditions will persist into Saturday with the approach of yet
another Low Pressure trough. This trough is forecast to begin to
approach Idaho Saturday night into Sunday, with Precipitation
forecast to begin by late Sunday across the Central Mountains
eastward along the Continental Divide. Widespread Precipitation is
then possible by Monday. A significant cooldown is becoming
increasingly likely behind the passage of a strong cold front
sometime on Monday, which may send Temperatures tumbling below
climatological averages Monday into Tuesday, a statement we
haven't been able to make since June. There are some differences
among model guidance regarding the strength and timing of the
trough. Favor the GFS and their ensembles at this time due to the
excellent agreement. AD/Huston

&&

.AVIATION...Upper trough currently over the region will shift east
of the divide this evening. Scattered thunderstorm activity is
anticipated ahead of the advancing trough and may impact numerous
terminals. Improving conditions are anticipated after 04z with the
exception of perhaps KDIJ. Huston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Low pressure system will shift east through the
region today producing enhanced thunderstorm activity over at least
zone 476 and 413. Thus a Red Flag Warning will be issued for those
zones for scattered thunderstorm activity today. A second low
pressure system will move into the NW coast late Thursday with
increasing winds across the region Thursday into Friday and
Saturday. Winds may be strong enough and RH low enough in select
zones to warrant Red Flag highlights but will hold off for now given
the current highlights. The extended models continue to show a deep
low digging into the region around Monday for cooler and wetter
conditions at least temporarily. Huston

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...Unhealthy air quality exists across much of SE
Idaho due to Smoke from area wildfires. Persons should limit
outdoor exposure as a result, particularly those persons that
suffer from respiratory issues. Some improvement is possible
following the passage of a cold front later today, with the DEQ
forecasting the Air Quality Index to drop back into the Moderate
category by Thursday. AD/Huston

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ413-476.

&&