Alert archive / New Jersey / Winter Weather Advisories in 2018

Winter Weather Advisory 11, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

March 1, 20184 counties in Pennsylvania; 8 counties in New Jersey

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this winter weather advisory at Mar 1, 2018, 3:41 PM EST for 4 counties in Pennsylvania; 8 counties in New Jersey. It took effect at Mar 2, 2018, 9:35 AM EST. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 1, 2018, 3:41 PM EST (20:41 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 2, 2018, 9:35 AM EST
Expired
Mar 2, 2018, 9:23 PM EST
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Counties Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bucks County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 172 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-03-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-03-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 63 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156175Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1285 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
63 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
114 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

990 
WWUS41 KPHI 012041
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-020845-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0004.180302T1100Z-180303T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0005.180302T0900Z-180303T0900Z/
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Newton, Jim Thorpe, and Stroudsburg
341 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to
  10 inches at higher elevations above 1000 feet and 2 to 4 
  inches in the valleys are expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Sussex county. In Pennsylvania, Carbon 
  and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...Rain will transition to snow initially along the high-
  elevation ridges in the southern Poconos and far northwestern
  New Jersey between 4 and 8 AM Friday morning and then closer to
  midday in the valleys. The snow will be heavy at times during
  the day on Friday with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
  possible. The snow is expected to decrease in intensity later in 
  the evening before eventually ending from west to east 
  overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions,
  including during both the morning and evening commutes on
  Friday. The combination of strong northwest winds gusting to 50
  mph and heavy snow could create near-blizzard conditions with 
  visibilities below one-half mile at times. The heavy, wet nature
  of the snow and strong winds will likely cause damage to trees 
  and power lines that will lead to power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ062-020845-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.180302T1600Z-180303T0900Z/
Warren-Morris-Northampton-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Bethlehem, 
and Easton
341 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 
  inches at higher elevations above 800 feet and 2 inches or less 
  in the valleys are expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Morris counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Northampton county.

* WHEN...Rain will transition to snow initially along the high-
  elevation ridges around midday Friday and then closer to mid
  afternoon in the valleys. The snow will be heavy at times Friday
  afternoon and evening with snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour
  possible. The snow is expected to end from west to east 
  overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute on Friday. The combination
  of strong northwest winds gusting to 50 mph and heavy snow 
  could create near-blizzard conditions with visibilities below 
  one-half mile at times. The heavy, wet nature of the snow and 
  strong winds will likely cause damage to trees and power lines 
  that will lead to scattered power outages, especially at higher 
  elevations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter
JRK
6 follow-up statements
163 
WWUS41 KPHI 020152
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
852 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...Areas of Heavy Snow Expected Friday...

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-021300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.180302T0900Z-180303T0900Z/
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Newton, Jim Thorpe, and Stroudsburg
852 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO
4 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to
  10 inches at elevations above 1000 feet and 2 to 4 inches in 
  the valleys are expected.

* WHERE...Far northwestern New Jersey, and the Southern Poconos.

* WHEN...Rain will transition to snow initially along the high-
  elevation ridges in the southern Poconos and far northwestern
  New Jersey between 4 and 8 AM Friday and then closer to midday
  in the valleys. The snow will be heavy at times during the day
  on Friday with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
  possible. The snow is expected to decrease in intensity later in
  the evening before eventually ending from west to east  
  overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions, 
  including during both the morning and evening commutes on 
  Friday. The combination of strong northwest winds gusting to 
  50 mph and heavy snow could create near-blizzard conditions 
  with visibilities below one-half mile at times. The heavy, wet 
  nature of the snow and strong winds will likely cause damage 
  to trees and power lines that will lead to power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ062-021300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.180302T1600Z-180303T0900Z/
Warren-Morris-Northampton-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Bethlehem, 
and Easton
852 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO
4 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches at elevations above 800 feet and 2 inches or less in the
  valleys are expected.

* WHERE...A portion of northwestern New Jersey, and part of the 
  Lehigh Valley.

* WHEN...Rain will transition to snow initially along the high- 
  elevation ridges around midday Friday and then closer to mid 
  afternoon in the valleys. The snow will be heavy at times 
  Friday afternoon and evening with snowfall rates of 1 inch per 
  hour possible. The snow is expected to end from west to east 
  overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute on Friday. The  
  combination of strong northwest winds gusting to 50 mph and 
  heavy snow could create near-blizzard conditions with 
  visibilities below one-half mile at times. The heavy, wet nature
  of the snow and strong winds will likely cause damage to trees 
  and power lines that will lead to scattered power outages, 
  especially at higher elevations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

JRK/Gorse
906 
WWUS41 KPHI 020908
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
408 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY INTO 
TONIGHT...

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-022200-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180303T0900Z/
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Newton, Jim Thorpe, and Stroudsburg
408 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  6 to 12 inches at elevations above 1000 feet and 2 to 4 inches 
  in the valleys.

* WHERE...The Poconos and far northern New Jersey.

* WHEN...Rain will transition to snow at the higher elevations in
  the Poconos and in far northern New Jersey early this morning. 
  The transition in the valleys should take place by midday. The 
  snow will be heavy at times today. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 
  inches per hour are possible, especially in the higher 
  elevations. The snow is expected to decrease in intensity this 
  evening before ending overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions. 
  The combination of a strong northwest wind gusting to 50 mph and
  heavy snow could create near-blizzard conditions with the 
  visibility falling below one half mile at times. The heavy wet 
  snow and the strong wind will likely cause damage to trees and 
  utility lines with power outages likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means that severe winter weather 
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you 
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your 
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for 
your state can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ062-022200-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.180302T1600Z-180303T0900Z/
Warren-Morris-Northampton-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Bethlehem, 
and Easton
408 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS 
MORNING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches at elevations above 800 feet and 2 inches or less in the
  valleys.

* WHERE...Northampton County in Pennsylvania, and the New Jersey 
  counties of Warren and Morris.

* WHEN...Rain will change to snow in the elevated terrain by late
  this morning. The transition may not take place in the valleys 
  until this afternoon. The snow may become moderate to heavy at 
  times this afternoon into this evening. The snow is expected to 
  end overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions. 
  The combination of a strong northwest wind gusting to 50 mph and
  heavy snow could create near-blizzard conditions with the 
  visibility falling below one half mile at times. The heavy wet 
  snow and the strong wind will likely cause damage to trees and 
  utility lines with power outages likely, especially in the 
  higher elevations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means that periods of wet 
snow may cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered 
roads and limited visibility, and use extra caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for your state can be obtained by 
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

Iovino
596 
WWUS41 KPHI 021435
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
935 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH INTO 
TONIGHT...

NJZ007-008-030245-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.180302T1600Z-180303T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180303T0900Z/
Warren-Morris-
Including the cities of Washington and Morristown
935 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches
  with locally higher amounts to 10 inches at elevations above 700
  feet and two inches or less in the valleys near Interstates 287
  and 78.

* WHERE...Warren and Morris counties.

* WHEN...Rain has transitioned to wet snow at higher elevations 
  this morning while a mix of rain and snow is occurring in the 
  valleys. The snow will be heavy at times late this morning and 
  this afternoon with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour 
  possible in the higher elevations. The snow is expected to 
  decrease in intensity this evening before ending from west to 
  east overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions
  through the evening commute. The combination of a strong
  northwest wind gusting to 50 mph and heavy snow could create
  near whiteout conditions at times. The heavy wet snow and the
  strong wind will likely cause damage to trees and utility lines
  with numerous power outages likely at higher elevations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for wet snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-030245-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180303T0900Z/
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Newton, Jim Thorpe, and Stroudsburg
935 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow is occurring. Total snow accumulations of
  8 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts to 15 inches at
  elevations above 1200 feet and 3 to 5 inches in the valleys.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Sussex county. In Pennsylvania, Carbon 
  and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...Rain has transitioned to heavy wet snow this morning. The
  snow will continue to be heavy at times late this morning and
  this afternoon with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
  likely. The snow is expected to decrease in intensity early 
  this evening before ending from west to east late this evening 
  into the overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions
  through the evening commute. The combination of a strong
  northwest wind gusting to 50 mph and heavy snow could create
  near whiteout conditions at times. The heavy wet snow and
  strong wind will cause damage to trees and utility lines with 
  the potential for numerous to widespread power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ009-030245-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.180302T1435Z-180303T0900Z/
Hunterdon-
Including the city of Flemington
935 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches at
  elevations above 700 feet and two inches or less in the valleys
  south of Interstate 78.

* WHERE...Hunterdon county.

* WHEN...Rain has transitioned to wet snow at higher elevations
  this morning while a mix of rain and snow is occurring in the
  valleys. The snow may be moderate to heavy at times through this
  afternoon with snowfall rates up to one inch per hour possible
  at higher elevations. The snow is expected to decrease in 
  intensity early this evening before ending from west to east 
  late this evening into the overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions
  through the evening commute. The combination of a strong
  northwest wind gusting to 50 mph and heavy snow could create
  near whiteout conditions at times in the higher elevations. The
  heavy wet snow and the strong wind could cause damage to trees
  and utility lines with scattered power outages possible, 
  especially in the higher elevations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

PAZ062-030245-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.180302T1435Z-180303T0900Z/
Northampton-
Including the cities of Bethlehem and Easton
935 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches at
  elevations above 700 feet and 2 inches or less in the valleys.

* WHERE...Northampton county.

* WHEN...Rain has transitioned to wet snow at higher elevations
  this morning while a mix of rain and snow is occurring in the
  valleys. The snow may be moderate to heavy at times through this
  afternoon with snowfall rates up to one inch per hour possible
  at higher elevations. The snow is expected to decrease in 
  intensity early this evening before ending from west to east 
  late this evening into the overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions
  through the evening commute. The combination of a strong
  northwest wind gusting to 50 mph and heavy snow could create
  near whiteout conditions at times in the higher elevations. The
  heavy wet snow and the strong wind could cause damage to trees
  and utility lines with scattered power outages possible, 
  especially in the higher elevations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter
JRK
722 
WWUS41 KPHI 021909
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
209 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH INTO TONIGHT...

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-030715-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180303T0900Z/
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Newton, Jim Thorpe, and Stroudsburg
209 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14
  inches with locally higher amounts to 18 inches at elevations
  above 1200 feet and 4 to 8 inches in the valleys.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Sussex county. In Pennsylvania, Carbon 
  and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...The snow will continue to be heavy through sunset with
  snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. The snow is expected
  to decrease in intensity during the early to mid evening before
  ending from west to east late this evening into the overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be extremely difficult to
  impossible. The combination of a strong northwest wind gusting
  to 50 mph and heavy snow will create near whiteout conditions at
  times. The heavy wet snow and strong wind will cause damage to
  trees and utility lines with widespread power outages expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ007-008-030715-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180303T0900Z/
Warren-Morris-
Including the cities of Washington and Morristown
209 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches
  with locally higher amounts to 10 inches at elevations above 700
  feet and 2 to 4 inches in the valleys near Interstates 287 and 
  78.

* WHERE...Warren and Morris counties.

* WHEN...The snow will continue to be heavy through sunset with
  snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. The snow is expected
  to decrease in intensity during the mid to late evening before 
  ending from west to east overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be extremely difficult to
  impossible. The combination of a strong northwest wind gusting
  to 50 mph and heavy snow will create near whiteout conditions at
  times. The heavy wet snow and strong wind will cause damage to
  trees and utility lines with numerous power outages expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for wet snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ010-015-PAZ061-103>106-030300-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180303T0300Z/
Somerset-Mercer-Lehigh-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Somerville, Trenton, Allentown, 
Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, 
Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
209 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with
  locally higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches at elevations above 700
  feet.

* WHERE...Somerset and Mercer Counties in central New Jersey and
  Lehigh, Montgomery and Bucks Counties in eastern Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Wet snow will continue to be moderate to heavy at times
  through sunset. The snow will gradually taper off from west to
  east this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Although the snow had initially struggled
  to accumulate on paved surfaces due to a warm ground,
  temperatures have lowered to near freezing, allowing snow to
  accumulate on untreated secondary roads, bridges and overpasses
  especially after sunset and during bursts of heavier snow. Plan
  on slippery travel conditions, including for the evening
  commute. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ012>014-020-026-030715-
/O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180303T0900Z/
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, 
Jackson, and Long Beach Island
209 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Middlesex, Monmouth and Ocean Counties in central New
  Jersey.

* WHEN...Wet snow will continue to be moderate to heavy at times
  this afternoon and evening. The snow will gradually taper off
  from west to east late this evening and overnight though it may
  linger until early Saturday morning along the New Jersey coast.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Although the snow has initially struggled
  to accumulate on paved surfaces due to a warm ground,
  temperatures have lowered to near freezing, allowing snow to
  accumulate on untreated secondary roads, bridges and overpasses
  especially after sunset and during bursts of heavier snow. Plan
  on slippery travel conditions, including for the evening
  commute. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ009-PAZ062-030715-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180303T0900Z/
Hunterdon-Northampton-
Including the cities of Flemington, Bethlehem, and Easton
209 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches at
  elevations above 700 feet and 2 to 4 inches in the valleys 
  south of Interstate 78.

* WHERE...Hunterdon county in New Jersey and Northampton County in
  Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Rain has transitioned to wet snow at higher elevations 
  this morning while a mix of rain and snow is occurring in the 
  valleys. The snow may be moderate to heavy at times through 
  this afternoon with snowfall rates up to one inch per hour 
  possible at higher elevations. The snow is expected to 
  decrease in intensity early this evening before ending from 
  west to east late this evening into the overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions 
  through the evening commute. The combination of a strong 
  northwest wind gusting to 50 mph and heavy snow could create 
  near whiteout conditions at times in the higher elevations. 
  The heavy wet snow and the strong wind could cause damage to 
  trees and utility lines with scattered power outages possible, 
  especially in the higher elevations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter
814 
WWUS41 KPHI 022138
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
438 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-030900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180303T0900Z/
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Newton, Jim Thorpe, and Stroudsburg
438 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 15 
  inches with locally higher amounts to 20 inches at elevations 
  above 1200 feet and 4 to 8 inches in the valleys.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Sussex county. In Pennsylvania, Carbon 
  and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...The heavy snow will continue through sunset with snowfall
  rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. The snow will decrease in 
  intensity during the early to mid evening before ending from 
  west to east late this evening into the overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be extremely difficult to
  impossible. The combination of a strong northwest wind gusting
  to 45 to 60 mph and heavy snow will create whiteout conditions
  at times during the evening commute. The heavy wet snow and
  strong wind have caused extensive damage to trees and utility
  lines, resulting in widespread power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ007-008-030900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180303T0900Z/
Warren-Morris-
Including the cities of Washington and Morristown
438 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches
  with locally higher amounts up to 12 inches at elevations above
  700 feet and 2 to 5 inches in the valleys near Interstates 287 
  and 78.

* WHERE...Warren and Morris counties.

* WHEN...The snow will continue to be heavy through sunset with
  snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour. The snow is expected to 
  decrease in intensity during the mid to late evening before 
  ending from west to east overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel during the evening commute will be
  extremely difficult to impossible, especially if driving through
  higher elevations. The combination of a strong northwest wind
  gusting to 55 mph and heavy snow will create near whiteout
  conditions at times. The heavy wet snow and strong wind will
  cause damage to trees and utility lines with numerous power
  outages being reported.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for wet snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ009-PAZ062-030900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180303T0900Z/
Hunterdon-Northampton-
Including the cities of Flemington, Bethlehem, and Easton
438 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches at 
  elevations above 700 feet and 2 to 4 inches in the valleys 
  south of Interstate 78.

* WHERE...Hunterdon county in New Jersey and Northampton County 
  in Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...The snow will continue to be heavy through sunset with
  snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour. The snow is expected to
  decrease in intensity during the early to mid evening before
  ending from west to east late this evening and overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions 
  through the evening commute. The combination of a strong 
  northwest wind gusting to 50 mph and heavy snow could create 
  near whiteout conditions at times in the higher elevations. 
  The heavy wet snow and the strong wind could cause damage to 
  trees and utility lines with scattered power outages possible, 
  especially in the higher elevations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ010-015-PAZ061-103>106-030300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180303T0300Z/
Somerset-Mercer-Lehigh-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Somerville, Trenton, Allentown, 
Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, 
Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
438 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches 
  with locally higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches at elevations 
  above 700 feet.

* WHERE...Somerset and Mercer Counties in central New Jersey and 
  Lehigh, Montgomery and Bucks Counties in eastern Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Wet snow will continue to be moderate at times through 
  sunset. The snow will gradually taper off from west to east this
  evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Although the snow had initially struggled
  to accumulate on paved surfaces due to a warm ground,
  temperatures have lowered to near freezing, allowing snow to
  accumulate on some untreated secondary roads, bridges and
  overpasses. Plan on slippery travel conditions for the evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ012>014-020-026-030900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180303T0900Z/
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, 
Jackson, and Long Beach Island
438 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Middlesex, Monmouth and Ocean Counties in central New 
  Jersey.

* WHEN...Wet snow will continue to be moderate at times through
  this evening. The snow will gradually taper off from west to
  east overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Although the snow had initially struggled
  to accumulate on paved surfaces due to a warm ground,
  temperatures have lowered to near freezing, allowing snow to
  accumulate on some untreated secondary roads, bridges and
  overpasses. Plan on slippery travel conditions for the evening
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter
574 
WWUS41 KPHI 030223
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
923 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018


NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-030330-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180303T0900Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, 
Jim Thorpe, and Stroudsburg
923 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The snow has essentially diminished to flurries for the Poconos
and far northwest New Jersey. There will continue to be slippery 
stretches of untreated and unplowed pavement. Strong northwest 
winds will ever so slowly diminish overnight and temperatures will
remain nearly steady. 

$$

NJZ009-012>014-020-026-PAZ062-030330-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180303T0900Z/
Hunterdon-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-
Coastal Ocean-Northampton-
Including the cities of Flemington, New Brunswick, Freehold, 
Sandy Hook, Jackson, Long Beach Island, Bethlehem, and Easton
923 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The snow has essentially diminished to flurries for portions of
northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. There will 
continue to be slippery stretches of untreated pavement. Strong 
northwest winds will ever so slowly diminish overnight and 
temperatures should remain steady at, or just above freezing. 


$$

NJZ010-015-PAZ061-103>106-030330-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180303T0300Z/
Somerset-Mercer-Lehigh-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Somerville, Trenton, Allentown, 
Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, 
Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
923 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The snow has essentially diminished to flurries for portions of
southeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. There will 
continue to be slippery stretches of untreated pavement. Strong 
northwest winds will ever so slowly diminish overnight and 
temperatures should remain steady at, or just above freezing. 

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Mar 1, 12:07 PM EST, 3 hours 34 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 1, 12:07 PM EST, 3 hours 34 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1207 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
As a surface low in the Ohio Valley this afternoon moves into
Pennsylvania tonight, a second low in the Southeast will progress
northeast off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The Pennsylvania low will
weaken as the coastal storm stalls and intensifies rapidly Friday
and Friday night. The low will move out to sea this weekend as
high pressure noses southward into the eastern U.S.Another
strong storm system may affect the region by the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF... Updates to the hourly cloud cover, temps, winds
and PoPs were just sent. Edits to all but the PoPs were relatively
minor. Based on the latest trends in radar (upstream of the
area) and hi-res models, the arrival of the rain looks to be a
bit slower than what was previously in the forecast grids. Any
mention of rain was removed from the forecast thru the rest of
the morning except our Delmarva zones. Rain should quickly
overspread the area from west to east during the mid to late
afternoon. Widespread, steady rain is expected to develop for
start of the evening rush primarily along/west of I-95 and south
of I-80.

Previous discussion from early this morning...
Low pressure was located in Illinois early this morning. The
low is forecast to strengthen as it moves eastward today,
reaching eastern Ohio late this afternoon. Meanwhile, weak low
pressure is expected to pass off Cape Hatteras.

The cloud cover is forecast to thicken and lower today and light
rain should overspread our region from the west and southwest this
afternoon.

We are anticipating a light and variable wind for this morning and a
developing east wind around 5 to 10 MPH for this afternoon. Maximum
temperatures are expected to favor the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Noon Update..Per coordination with surrounding WFOs and after
taking a look at the latest 12Z guidance, felt it was prudent to
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning where confidence is
highest that warning criteria (58 mph gusts) will be met:
roughly from Reading to Philadelphia to Millville/Atlantic City,
south. Confidence that deeper mixing needed to transport 50 kt
winds down to the surface is greatest across these southern
areas owing to a combination of stronger CAA layer/steeper lapse
rates in the boundary and less of a risk for precip to stabilize
the mixing potential below the LCL. Farther north where the High
Wind Watch continues, there is less agreement among the models
that mixing will become deep enough to tap into the stronger
winds aloft.

Heads up for later this afternoon: Headline decisions for the
Winter Storm Watch, the remainder of the High Wind Watch and
Coastal Flood Watch are expected to be made and sent out by 4
PM. The biggest remaining question with this high-impact and
multi- faceted coastal storm is the wintry precip aspect of it
(e.g., how quickly and how far south will the changeover from
rain to snow occur, how much snow is able to accumulate, how
extreme will the variability of snowfall amounts be from the
valleys to the higher elevation ridges).

Previous Discussion...
The energy associated with the Ohio Valley low is expected to
transfer to the waters off Delaware, New Jersey and Long Island
tonight. The developing low off the coast is forecast to
intensify rapidly.

Rain should continue in our region overnight and it will likely
become moderate to locally heavy at times. Rainfall totals tonight
may range from 0.75 to 1.25 inches from the Poconos, the Lehigh
Valley and Bucks County into northern and central New Jersey. Lesser
amounts are anticipated in areas to the west and south.

As the low off the coast strengthens, it should begin to pull cold
air into our region from the north. The rain is expected to change
to snow in the elevated terrain of the Poconos late tonight. Some
spots up there could pick up a couple inches of snow by daybreak.

The easterly wind is expected to become north, then northwest
overnight. Low temperatures are anticipated to fall into the 30s in
the Poconos and in far northern New Jersey, and into the lower 40s
elsewhere in our forecast area.

Will attempt to keep the model/scientific discussion short, as
the potential impacts need to be addressed at length. Models are
generally closing in on a solution in which the southern-stream
low progressing off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight curves
northward and stalls near/south of the southern New England
coast Friday and Friday night before progressing east-southeast
well offshore this weekend. The 00Z NAM is on the western fringe
of guidance with the track and was deemed a lower-probability
solution in general, particularly given its continued very cold
low-level thermal profiles (with the GFS much warmer and the
ECMWF in between). The ECMWF was on the south/east side of the
model clustering but has been persistent with this. However, the
GFS and ECMWF were exhibiting increasing consensus, and the CMC
had a reasonably similar solution.

As a result, the forecast used a blend of the
GFS/ECMWF/CMC/WPC/GEFS for precipitation (including type and
QPF). However, higher-resolution guidance (including the NAM
Nest, the WRF-ARW/NMM, and NamDNG) were weighted highly
regarding the winds on Friday and Friday night, as the coarser
models simply looked too weak with winds/gusts given the
proximity/intensity of the low, the very strong pressure
gradient that will develop, and the favorable steepness of low-
level lapse rates on the west/south side of the low.

However, confidence on the thermal profiles and the resultant
extent of snow and total accumulations is very low outside of
the winter storm watch. Large changes to the forecast Friday and
Friday night are possible in the next 24 hours as a result.

Forecast weather/impacts:

Winds will be one of the biggest impacts of this storm. Have
expanded the high wind watch to include all areas not in winter-
weather headlines (that is, everyone except Carbon/Monroe/Sussex
Counties) Friday and Friday night. This will very likely require
upgrade to a warning by this afternoon. Widespread gusts 50-60
mph should be expected during the height of the winds (late
Friday morning to Friday evening), with gusts above 60 mph
likely near the coast and in portions of Delmarva. Considerable
coverage of power outages is possible as well as a large number
of downed trees.

As for the rain, the heaviest should occur in northern portions
of the area Friday morning, but a surge southward as the
wraparound cranks up during the afternoon is likely. Models show
tremendous frontogenetical lift in the 850-700 mb layer over the
area during the afternoon/evening, which is one reason the
colder NAM solution cannot be discounted (combination of strong
lift and precipitation-cooling effects will be at work here).

Regarding snow, warning criteria will likely be met in the
southern Poconos, at least in the higher elevations, where 4-7
inches are possible (locally up to a foot in the highest
elevations). There is more uncertainty in Sussex County, NJ,
but given the overall eastward trend of the colder air and
deformation band(s) likely to develop on the northwest side of
the low, the watch was expanded to include it. Very strong winds
are probable Friday afternoon and evening, and local whiteout
conditions are possible. There is some concern blizzard criteria
will be met here.

Farther southeast, changeover to snow is expected gradually
during the day Friday in the Lehigh Valley and adjacent portions
of northern New Jersey. However, temperatures are quite
marginal, and considerable melting of any snow that falls is
expected. Furthermore, it is not clear how soon this changeover
will be. Nevertheless, winds will be strong, so occasional
whiteout conditions are possible anywhere changeover occurs.
Confidence in blizzard conditions (3+ hours of quarter-mile or
less visibilities) is too low for a watch here, so kept these
areas in a high wind watch instead. However, the combined threat
of wind and snow is very worrisome, and a switchover to winter
headlines is quite possible in later forecasts, especially if
the colder solutions are closer to reality.

Storm total liquid-equivalent precipitation will likely be from
1 to 2+ inches north of the Mason-Dixon Line, and around a third
of an inch to a little more than an inch to the south.

Freshwater flood potential is covered in the Hydrology section.
Coastal flood potential is covered in the Tides/Coastal Flooding
section.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The system will remain in close proximity offshore Saturday, so
breezy north winds are expected on Saturday as well, but they
should not be nearly as strong as Friday and Friday night.
Meanwhile, precipitation should be done by this point for the
area (perhaps a lingering snow shower in the Poconos).

Rest of the long term featured few changes. Continued to go
below MEX MOS for temperatures Saturday through Monday, and the
trend of consensus guidance has been going somewhat downward for
this period. This period should be dry as surface high pressure
moves into the area.

Unfortunately, there is increasing potential for another major
(coastal) storm by the middle of next week, with both the GFS
and ECMWF indicating this evolution Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Once again, low-level temperatures appear marginal. Although
precip type issues will almost assuredly be present, winds,
heavy rain, and coastal hazards may be the bigger stories.
Plenty of time to figure that out, though.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon...VFR lowering to MVFR mid to late afternoon as
rain moves into our region with an east wind around 4 to 8
knots.

Tonight...Mainly IFR in rain. East wind around 4 to 8 knots becoming
north, then northwest.

OUTLOOK...
Friday and Friday night: Predominantly MVFR/IFR conditions with
rain, with potential changeover to snow (mainly northwest of
Philly) by afternoon/evening. Very strong northwest winds (20-35
kts with gusts 40-55 kts) expected. Conditions may improve to
VFR by late Friday night as precipitation winds down. Moderate
confidence.

Saturday: Predominately VFR with north winds 15 to 25 kts with
gusts 25 to 35 kts. Moderate confidence.

Saturday night and Sunday: VFR with north winds 10 to 20 kts
with potential for higher gusts, especially near the coast. High
confidence.

Sunday night and Monday: VFR with north to northeast winds 5 to
15 kts, potentially a little higher near the coast. Moderate
confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
This afternoon...Southwest wind around 10 knots becoming east
and northeast. Waves on our ocean waters are forecast to be 2 to
3 feet. Waves on Delaware Bay should be 2 feet or less.

Tonight...Northeast wind around 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 20
knots. Gusts near 30 knots toward morning on our waters south of
Atlantic City and on Delaware Bay. Waves on our ocean waters are
forecast to build to 3 to 5 feet. Waves on Delaware Bay should
increase to 2 to 3 feet.

OUTLOOK...
Friday and Friday night: Storm-force northwest winds and rapidly
building seas are expected, potentially 10+ feet by Friday
night. Widespread rain and visibility restrictions will occur.
A storm warning is in effect for all areas for this period.

Saturday and Saturday night: Gales are expected to linger
through the morning for Upper Delaware Bay and through Saturday
night everywhere else. Very high seas will continue as flow
becomes more northerly or north-northeasterly.

Sunday and Sunday night: At least advisory level conditions are
expected on the ocean, but sub-advisory conditions are possible
on Delaware Bay. Seas will continue to hover around 7-12 feet on
the ocean.

Monday: Seas remain well above criteria on the ocean, but winds
may become sub-advisory by this point. Sub-advisory conditions
are expected on Delaware Bay.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
If expected rainfall amounts come to fruition, the region will
likely experience some flooding from Thursday night into
Saturday.

Rain will spread across the region later on Thursday and persist
through at least Friday evening.

As it rains, flooding will commence across low-lying and poor
drainage areas, as well as small fast-responding creeks.
February has been a very wet month. Many locales have picked up
between 5.00 and 7.00 inches of rain. This is +75% of normal. As
this rainfall runs off into larger streams and rivers, rises
will occur. These rises will occur mainly Friday night into
Saturday. As of this AFD entry, we have 8 MARFC supported
forecast points at or above action stage across the HSA and 1
gage above flood stage. Please refer to our AHPS page for the
latest. Check back frequently for updates.

As for the QPF, the highest amounts expected to reside across
the northern half of the HSA. Across southern NJ and the
Delmarva, 1.00 inch of rain or less is expected. Across our
central zones, 1.00- 2.00 inches are expected. Across our
northern zones, 1.50-2.50 inches are expected. The Raritan and
Passaic basins and portions of the Delaware basin will
experience the most rain.

A Flood Watch remains in effect from generally Philadelphia
northward, excluding the southern Poconos and Sussex County, NJ,
where transition to snow will likely mitigate the flooding
potential.

Once again, please visit AHPS to see where our concerns specifically
lie.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The Coastal Food Watch remains in effect for Friday into Saturday
night as a major coastal storm develops.

We continue to expect a few rounds of tidal flooding along the
coasts of Delaware and New Jersey and along Delaware Bay. Generally
minor flooding is anticipated on Friday, with locally moderate
flooding in New Jersey. The high tide cycle of greatest concern is
the one on Saturday morning. Moderate to locally major flooding may
occur at that time as the storm surge builds to 2.5 to 3 feet.
Moderate flooding may occur again with the Saturday evening
high tide.

If you live along the coast or along Delaware Bay, please pay close
attention to the forecast over the coming days.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     PAZ061-062-071-103>106.
     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night
     for PAZ061-062-105-106.
     High Wind Warning from 11 AM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     PAZ060-070-071-101>104.
     Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Friday
     night for PAZ054-055.
NJ...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     NJZ007>010-012>015-018>020-026-027.
     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night
     for NJZ007>010-012>015-019-020-026-027.
     High Wind Warning from 11 AM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     NJZ016>018-021>025.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through late Saturday
     night for NJZ012>014-020>027.
     Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Friday
     night for NJZ001.
DE...High Wind Warning from 11 AM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through late Saturday
     night for DEZ002>004.
     High Wind Warning from 3 AM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     DEZ002>004.
MD...High Wind Warning from 11 AM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     MDZ008.
     High Wind Warning from 3 AM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...Storm Warning from noon Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ450>452.
     Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ431-
     453>455.
     Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ430.

&&

Synopsis...CMS/Klein
Near Term...Iovino/Klein
Short Term...CMS/Iovino/Klein
Long Term...CMS
Aviation...CMS/Iovino/Klein
Marine...CMS/Iovino
Hydrology...
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 1, 3:38 PM EST, 3 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
338 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016-017-PAZ060-070-101-102-022045-
New Castle-Cecil-Salem-Gloucester-Berks-Delaware-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-
338 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware, northeast
Maryland, southern New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Winds will begin to increase towards dawn.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ007-008-PAZ062-022045-
Warren-Morris-Northampton-
338 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey and east
central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ015-018-019-PAZ061-071-103>106-022045-
Mercer-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Lehigh-Philadelphia-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
338 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, southern
New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ012-015-019-020-022045-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
338 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-022045-
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
338 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ009-010-022045-
Hunterdon-Somerset-
338 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey and
northwest New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ012>014-020-026-027-022045-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-
338 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Coastal Flood Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Coastal Flood Warning.
   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ021>025-022045-
Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-
338 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Warning.
   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ002>004-022045-
Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-
338 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware and southern
Delaware.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Coastal Flood Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Coastal Flood Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ431-453>455-022045-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
338 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ450>452-022045-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
338 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-022045-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
338 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 1, 11:44 AM ESTHigh Wind WarningPHIBerks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh, Montgomery and 1 more40 hr
Mar 1, 3:30 PM ESTWind AdvisoryPHIBerks, Bucks, Carbon, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh and 4 more45 hr
Mar 1, 3:41 PM ESTWinter Storm WarningPHICarbon, Monroe30 hr
Mar 1, 3:54 AM ESTStorm WarningPHI48 hr
Mar 1, 4:07 PM ESTCoastal Flood WarningPHIAtlantic, Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, Middlesex, Monmouth and 1 more58 hr

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in New Jersey, 2018Winter Weather Advisories in Pennsylvania, 2018Every winter weather advisory in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.