Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
942 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure to our north will move offshore tonight as a trailing
cold front sinks south across our region tonight. High pressure on
Wednesday will be followed by a somewhat stronger cold front which
is expected to cross the area Thursday afternoon and evening. High
pressure will again build into the Northeast and mid-Atlantic for
Friday. High pressure will continue to dominate our weather through
the weekend and into early next week as an upper level ridge builds
along the East Coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

940 PM Update...Storms have weakened and the main concern at
this point looks to be hydro as storms continue to move through
over the next few hours. For this reason, the Tornado Watch has
been cancelled and we removed severe wording from the gridded
forecast.

Overnight, once the storms and cold front are through the
region, we should see conditions clear out. There is some risk
for another round of fog late tonight, however, some dry air
advection behind the front may limit fog development.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in tomorrow leading to a tranquil day
across the region. The previously mentioned cold front will be
rather weak by the time it reaches our region, so limited cold
air advection is expected behind it. Thus, temperatures tomorrow
should remain above normal, with highs from the upper 60s to
lower 80s across the region.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Wednesday night through Thursday night...The main concern during
this time frame will be the cold frontal passage during Thursday
afternoon and evening. An upper-level ridge will have begun to build
over the southeast US as an upper trof brushes by to the north.
There does not appear to be much large-scale forcing for UVV over
the mid-Atlantic area. However, with temperatures forecast to rise
into the 80s and dewpts in the mid to upper 60s, there should be
instability to kick off a few thunderstorms along and ahead of the
cold front. Timing of the frontal passage appears to be roughly mid-
to late afternoon for the Poconos, early evening for the PHL
vicinity, and mid- to late-evening for northern Delmarva. Precip
should be mostly over after midnight except possibly for
Delmarva.

Friday through Monday...

In the big picture, an upper level ridge will be building along the
east coast through the weekend with a trough in the western CONUS.
This should bring the area mostly dry and fair weather.

In terms of the specifics, to start the period Friday a cold front
will be situated near or just south of the area with high pressure
building in to the north. This will result in NE flow with cooler
temperatures under a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will be mostly in
the 70s except 60s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ.

Heading into the weekend the surface ridging looks to set up right
along the coast Saturday as low pressure tracks north well to our
west into the Great Lakes. This should keep temperatures near
seasonal at least through Saturday as the warmer air will be
directed well to our west. Skies will be variable and it's possible
there could be a few isolated showers over northern and western
parts of the CWA but otherwise it will be dry. By Sunday into
Monday, temperatures should start to warm up as the surface high
moves off the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Scattered SHRA/TSRA mainly for KABE, KRDG, and KTTN, but
possible father south along the I-95 corridor, through midnight.
MVFR or IFR conditions possible in fog and stratus after 06z. Except
for thunderstorm wind gusts, light south winds shifting NW expected
through the overnight hours.

Wednesday...VFR conditions expected. NW winds from 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Mainly VFR. Variable wind 5 knots or less.

Thursday...Mostly VFR, with a chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, mainly around KRDG and KABE. Southwest wind 5 to 10
knots.

Thursday night...Mostly VFR. A chance of evening showers and
thunderstorms, mainly around KRDG and KABE. West wind 5 to 10 knots
becoming northwest.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Light and variable wind.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop on the ocean waters
this afternoon, and will continue through tonight. Conditions remain
below advisory levels on DE Bay. Showers and thunderstorms possible
on the waters late this afternoon and this evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday night...No marine headlines
are anticipated.

Friday and Saturday...A northeast wind around 10 to 15 knots may
cause waves to build to 4-6 feet on our ocean waters.

Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

Synopsis...AMC
Near Term...Fitzsimmons/Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...AMC/Fitzsimmons
Aviation...AMC/Staarmann
Marine...AMC/Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
924 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-040130-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-
Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
924 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania,
northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013-014-016>027-PAZ070-071-
040130-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-
Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
924 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-040130-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
924 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
552 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

PAZ054-055-022245-
Monroe-Carbon-
552 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CARBON AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

At 552 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Slocum, or 10
miles north of Hazleton, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds up to 45 mph and half inch hail are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Pocono, Jim Thorpe, Weatherly, Pocono Pines, Gilbert, Pocono
Raceway, Lake Harmony, Blakeslee, Penn Forest Reservoir, Long Pond,
Albrightsville, Kresgeville, Christmans, Sun Valley, Jonas,
Meckesville, Stoddartsville, Effort and Merwinsburg.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4113 7535 4088 7545 4091 7576 4096 7586
      4098 7584 4101 7573 4103 7574 4105 7577
      4109 7577 4113 7569 4112 7565 4115 7561
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 279DEG 22KT 4110 7596

PO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
707 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E KIDDER TWP          41.06N  75.67W
10/02/2018                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            A COUPLE OF TREES REPORTED DOWN IN KIDDER TOWNSHIP.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1801637

STAARMANN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
744 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

PAZ055-030045-
Monroe-
744 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MONROE COUNTY...

At 743 PM EDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms was near Arrowhead
Lake, or 11 miles northwest of Mount Pocono, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4115 7515 4114 7509 4108 7503 4109 7497
      4102 7507 4100 7511 4090 7524 4082 7545
      4082 7547 4096 7556 4099 7550 4112 7565
      4123 7554 4125 7513
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 287DEG 43KT 4120 7556

JJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
820 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

NJZ001-030130-
Sussex-
Including the city of Newton
820 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...Thunderstorms with gusty winds...

Several areas of showers and thunderstorms will affect Sussex
county New Jersey through 930 PM. You can expect frequent
lightning, downpours which may cause ponding of water on roads.
Gusty winds, up to 45 mph are also possible. Go indoors if
threatening weather approaches.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
951 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ070-071-101>106-030345-
Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Lower Bucks-Upper Bucks-Eastern
Montgomery-Western Montgomery-Delaware-Western Chester-Eastern
Chester-Philadelphia-
951 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HUNTERDON...MERCER...SOMERSET...
MIDDLESEX...MONTGOMERY...BUCKS...CHESTER...PHILADELPHIA AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES...

At 948 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms extended from near
Reading eastward to near Newark, NJ. This line was moving southeast
at around 25 MPH.

Winds up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms as they move through between now and midnight.

Very heavy rain is also occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4040 7425 4014 7459 4019 7470 3996 7513
      3988 7515 3980 7541 3984 7562 3972 7577
      3972 7613 3987 7599 4011 7594 4025 7569
      4045 7553 4078 7490 4072 7474 4076 7456
      4065 7452 4066 7440 4060 7446 4059 7420
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 276DEG 49KT 4039 7519

jjm

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1124 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

NJZ013-014-019-020-022-025>027-030415-
Coastal Atlantic-Northwestern Burlington-Eastern Monmouth-Coastal
Ocean-Ocean-Western Monmouth-Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-
1124 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN ATLANTIC...
OCEAN...EASTERN BURLINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN MONMOUTH COUNTIES...

At 1124 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Long Branch to near Whiting to
Tabernacle. Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

Winds up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Toms River, Atlantic City, Long Branch, Asbury Park, Lakewood,
Jackson, Howell, Barnegat, Pleasantville, Tinton Falls, Red Bank,
Beachwood, Ventnor City, Brigantine, Absecon, Tabernacle, Shamong,
Manasquan, Point Pleasant Beach and Egg Harbor City.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3979 7410 4001 7409 3999 7414 3977 7410
      3975 7420 3974 7417 3976 7410 3975 7410
      3951 7428 3955 7426 3954 7440 3942 7434
      3933 7448 3992 7480 4037 7410 4027 7398
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 330DEG 40KT 4030 7399 4000 7439 3985 7473

Fitzsimmons