Alert archive / New Jersey / Areal Flood Warnings in 2018

Areal Flood Warning 90, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

November 3, 2018Bucks County, Northampton County, Pennsylvania; 5 counties in New Jersey

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this areal flood warning at Nov 3, 2018, 2:34 AM EDT for Bucks County, Northampton County, Pennsylvania; 5 counties in New Jersey. It was in force for 15 hr. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Nov 3, 2018, 2:34 AM EDT (06:34 UTC)
Expired
Nov 3, 2018, 5:30 PM EDT
In force
15 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Hunterdon County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bucks County, PA, Northampton County, PA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Nov 3, 9:00 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 3.65Jefferson Twp, NJ
Nov 3, 9:46 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 3.014 Sw Wantage, NJ2.71 INCHES FROM 7:00PM - 9:45AM.
Nov 3, 3:51 PM EDTFLOOD2 S Hackettstown, NJFLOODING OF THE MUSCONETCONG RIVER WITH WATERS BEGINNING TO FLOW OVER EAST AVENUE.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2018-11-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 141 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2018-11-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 210 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
141 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-110 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
497 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
73 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
210 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
276 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

589 
WGUS41 KPHI 030634
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
234 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

NJC019-027-035-037-041-PAC017-095-030930-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.W.0090.181103T0634Z-181103T0930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morris NJ-Hunterdon NJ-Sussex NJ-Warren NJ-Somerset NJ-Bucks PA-
Northampton PA-
234 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
  Morris County in northern New Jersey...
  Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Sussex County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Warren County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
  North central Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 530 AM EDT.

* At 233 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated up to two to three inches 
  of rain has fallen from earlier heavy rainfall with additional 
  light to moderate rainfall occurring. Several creeks and streams 
  are rising and will likely exceed their flood stage, including the 
  Neshanic near Reaville and East Branch Perkiomen near Dublin among 
  others.

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Morristown, Somerville, Port Jervis, Newton, Montague, Bridgewater,
  Dover, Madison, Hopatcong, Florham Park, East Hanover, Lincoln
  Park, Bound Brook, Manville, Kinnelon, Hackettstown, Chatham,
  Byram, Boonton and Butler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 4120 7437 4110 7449 4104 7450 4105 7445
      4102 7443 4100 7430 4090 7427 4091 7433
      4074 7437 4066 7445 4066 7440 4034 7494
      4040 7525 4076 7489 4095 7516 4109 7497
      4109 7498 4116 7490 4132 7480 4136 7469

$$

Robertson
4 follow-up statements
321 
WGUS41 KPHI 030918
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
518 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

NJC019-027-035-037-041-PAC017-095-031330-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181103T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morris NJ-Hunterdon NJ-Sussex NJ-Warren NJ-Somerset NJ-Bucks PA-
Northampton PA-
518 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Morris County in northern New Jersey...
  Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Sussex County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Warren County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
  North central Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 930 AM EDT.

* At 513 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated rainfall has mostly ended 
  across the area, although additional showers are possible later 
  this morning. Up to three to five inches of rain fell earlier 
  across the area. Several rivers, creeks, and streams remain 
  flooding, including the Neshanic near Reaville and Pequest River 
  near Pequest, although many have crested and are falling. 

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Morristown, Somerville, Port Jervis, Newton, Montague, Bridgewater,
  Dover, Madison, Hopatcong, Florham Park, East Hanover, Lincoln
  Park, Bound Brook, Manville, Kinnelon, Hackettstown, Chatham,
  Byram, Boonton and Butler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 4120 7437 4110 7449 4104 7450 4105 7445
      4102 7443 4100 7430 4090 7427 4091 7433
      4074 7437 4066 7445 4066 7440 4034 7494
      4040 7525 4076 7489 4095 7516 4109 7497
      4109 7498 4116 7490 4132 7480 4136 7469

$$

Robertson
613 
WGUS41 KPHI 031322
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
922 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

NJC019-027-035-037-041-PAC017-095-031730-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181103T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morris NJ-Hunterdon NJ-Sussex NJ-Warren NJ-Somerset NJ-Bucks PA-
Northampton PA-
922 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Morris County in northern New Jersey...
  Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Sussex County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Warren County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
  North central Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 130 PM EDT.

* At 919 AM EDT, local law enforcement reported flooding in much of 
  the warned area. Several roads remain closed in Warren, Morris, 
  and Hunterdon Counties. Several creeks and streams remain near or 
  above flood stage at this time with rises occurring on the North 
  Branch Raritan River in South Branch in Somerset County, the 
  Pequest River in Huntsville in Sussex County, and the South Branch 
  Raritan River in High Bridge in Hunterdon County. Although the 
  heavy rainfall has ended, flooding is expected to continue for the 
  next several hours.

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Morristown, Somerville, Port Jervis, Newton, Montague, Bridgewater,
  Dover, Madison, Hopatcong, Florham Park, East Hanover, Lincoln
  Park, Bound Brook, Manville, Kinnelon, Hackettstown, Chatham,
  Byram, Boonton and Butler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 4120 7437 4110 7449 4104 7450 4105 7445
      4102 7443 4100 7430 4090 7427 4091 7433
      4074 7437 4066 7445 4066 7440 4034 7494
      4040 7525 4076 7489 4095 7516 4109 7497
      4109 7498 4116 7490 4132 7480 4136 7469

$$

CMS
316 
WGUS41 KPHI 031714
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
114 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

NJC019-027-035-037-041-PAC017-095-032130-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181103T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morris NJ-Hunterdon NJ-Sussex NJ-Warren NJ-Somerset NJ-Bucks PA-
Northampton PA-
114 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Morris County in northern New Jersey...
  Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Sussex County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Warren County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
  North central Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 530 PM EDT.

* At 110 PM EDT, reporting gauges indicate flooding is still 
  occurring in portions of the warned area. The Pequest River is 
  above flood stage at Pequest and nearing flood stage at 
  Huntsville. The North and South Branches of the Raritan River 
  remain near flood stage. The Blairstown gauge on Paulins Kill is 
  also rising. Flooding is expected to continue through the 
  afternoon. 

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Morristown, Somerville, Port Jervis, Newton, Montague, Bridgewater,
  Dover, Madison, Hopatcong, Florham Park, East Hanover, Lincoln
  Park, Bound Brook, Manville, Kinnelon, Hackettstown, Chatham,
  Byram, Boonton and Butler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 4120 7437 4110 7449 4104 7450 4105 7445
      4102 7443 4100 7430 4090 7427 4091 7433
      4074 7437 4066 7445 4066 7440 4034 7494
      4040 7525 4076 7489 4095 7516 4109 7497
      4109 7498 4116 7490 4132 7480 4136 7469

$$

CMS
636 
WGUS81 KPHI 032122
FLSPHI

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
522 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

NJC019-035-PAC017-032131-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181103T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hunterdon NJ-Somerset NJ-Bucks PA-
522 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR HUNTERDON...SOMERSET AND
NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTIES...

The flood water is receding. Therefore, the flooding threat has 
ended. Please continue to heed any road closures.

LAT...LON 4120 7437 4109 7450 4104 7450 4105 7445
      4102 7443 4087 7465 4073 7477 4074 7483
      4078 7488 4078 7490 4077 7491 4095 7516
      4109 7497 4118 7488 4132 7480 4136 7469

$$

NJC027-037-041-PAC095-032130-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181103T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morris NJ-Sussex NJ-Warren NJ-Northampton PA-
522 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR WESTERN
MORRIS...SUSSEX...WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...

At 521 PM EDT, flooding was continuing from the heavy rain that fell 
Friday night. In some locations, especially along the   Pequest 
River, water may continue to rise through late Saturday   night 
before cresting.

Some locations that could experience flooding include...
Port Jervis, Newton, Montague, Hopatcong, Hackettstown, Blairstown,
Mount Arlington, Franklin, Stanhope, Hamburg, Netcong, Oxford,
Ogdensburg, Sussex, Hope, Milford, Branchville, Delaware Water Gap,
Andover and High Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 4120 7437 4109 7450 4104 7450 4105 7445
      4102 7443 4087 7465 4073 7477 4074 7483
      4078 7488 4078 7490 4077 7491 4095 7516
      4109 7497 4118 7488 4132 7480 4136 7469

$$

SFJ

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood warning went out at Nov 2, 8:40 PM EDT, 5 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 2, 8:40 PM EDT, 5 hours 54 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
840 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will ride along a cold front that will move
through the area through the overnight. High pressure will then
build into the area Saturday afternoon and evening. The high
will continue to move off to the northeast, reaching the
Canadian Maritimes by Monday. A warm front will lift north
across the area Monday ahead of another area of low pressure and
cold front that should move through the region Tuesday and
Wednesday. High pressure will bring a return to drier weather
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure deepening across Virginia this evening will
continue to strengthen while moving along the front across our
area overnight. An upper trough and strong jet max will aid in
the continuation of moderate to heavy rains at times. One to two
inches is expected in most areas overnight. A rumble of thunder
or two is possible, but overall a low probability. Rains will
diminish beginning across the S/W areas late tonight and then
back edge will progress NE after the low/front pass through.

Low temperatures will be in the 40s across the north and low/mid
50s over the S/E areas. Winds which are mostly Srly this evening
will turn W or NW after the front passes the area late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The axis of the mid level trough is forecast to lift over our
region around midday on Saturday. Strong downward motion in the
wake of the trough should mix gusty winds to the surface.
Meanwhile, the area of low pressure is anticipated to strengthen
on Saturday as it lifts across New England.

We have issued a Wind Advisory for our counties in northern and
central New Jersey. West northwest wind gusts around the 45 MPH
advisory threshold are possible. The advisory is in effect from
11:00 AM until 6:00 PM Saturday. Wind gusts should remain just
below advisory criteria in areas to the west and south, probably
ranging in the 35 to 40 MPH range.

While there may be lingering showers in our northern counties
in the morning, the overall trend is expected to be one of
decreasing cloud cover.

Temperatures will be considerably cooler than those of today
and the past couple days. Highs are anticipated to range from
the middle and upper 40s in the Poconos to the upper 50s on the
coastal plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure will continue to move
off to the northeast as the next trough begins to move toward
the Great Lakes. The trough will flatten as it moves around the
ridge to the south. We look to stay mostly cloudy with onshore
flow Monday as a wave of low pressure moves just to our south
and east along the coast. No significant cool down is expected
behind this system as it looses intensity. Highs should range
from the upper 40s north to the upper 50s south Monday and low
50s north to mid 60s south Tuesday.

A much deeper trough begins to take shape over the Midwest
Tuesday and warm southerly flow continues to dominate our
weather. Rain should hold off until the afternoon Tuesday, with
the cold front moving through Tuesday night.

Tuesday night through Friday...An upper trough with an embedded
and quickly moving shortwave will be exiting our area by early
Wednesday. Medium range guidance indicates that a quick moving
cold front associated with the attendant low pressure - located
between the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay - will cross our area
overnight Tuesday night and will be well offshore by daybreak
Wednesday. The front will bring a round of widespread showers
and possibly a few rumbles of thunder. Temps will cool off
behind this front for Thursday. Adjusted grids to reflect this
trend. Weak high pressure briefly settles over the Mid- Atlantic
on Thursday as another strong shortwave dives southeastward
eventually closing off an upper low across the upper Midwest.
Guidance varies significantly on the timing and strength of this
late week system, which will have considerable impact to our
sensible weather. That said, a strong cold front will likely
cross the region Friday or Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...A continuation of moderate to heavy rain across the
region overnight. Ceiling and visibility values should be
mostly in the MVFR and IFR range. A slight improvement is
possible after 06Z as the heaviest rain moves to our northeast.
We are expecting a south to southwest wind around 10 knots this
evening becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots overnight.

Saturday...MVFR ceilings may linger until 12Z, otherwise mainly
VFR with decreasing cloud cover. West northwest wind 15 to 25
knots with gusts of 30 to 40 knots.

Outlook...
Sunday...Mostly VFR expected, with northeast winds turning east
to southeast around 5 knots.

Monday...Mostly VFR expected, with generally east to southeast
winds 5 knots. Lower visibilities at times with showers.

Tuesday...Mostly VFR expected, with southeast winds turning
more southerly 5-10 knots. Lower visibilities and ceilings as
showers move toward the region in the evening.

Tuesday night though Wednesday...sub-VFR conditions and showers
possible. Southerly winds around 10 knots becoming westerly
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine products and flags are working out well, so no changes
planned. Rain overnight and then improving weather Sat morning
from SW to NE.

We will continue the Small Craft Advisory for tonight on our
ocean waters. We will carry a Gale Warning for Saturday on our
ocean waters and on Delaware Bay. Low pressure is forecast to
move northeastward into our region tonight. The low is expected
to strengthen rapidly on Saturday as it moves across New
England.

Outlook...
Sunday through Tuesday...Generally sub-SCA conditions expected
Sunday and Monday, with possible SCA conditions Tuesday, and
especially into Tuesday night ahead of the next area of low
pressure.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible with the
cold front passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
We continue to expect widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall totals in
northeastern Maryland, Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania and New
Jersey with locally higher amounts possible.

The forecast amounts may result in localized flooding of roadways
and areas of poor drainage. Leaf clogged storm drains may contribute
to any flooding problems. However, any flooding should not be
widespread enough to warrant a Flood Watch.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ001-
     007>010-012>015-020-026.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

Synopsis...Davis
Near Term...Iovino/PO
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Davis/Staarmann
Aviation...Davis/Iovino/Staarmann/PO
Marine...Davis/Iovino/Staarmann/PO
Hydrology...
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 2, 4:05 PM EDT, 10 hours 29 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
405 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>019-021>025-027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-032015-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-
Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
405 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rain later tonight could be heavy enough to result in localized
flooding. A total of 1-2 inches of rain is expected, with locally up
to 3 inches possible. Flood prone creeks and streams could also see
significant rises across the Schuylkill, Delaware, Rancocas, Raritan,
and Passaic basins.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-020-026-032015-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
405 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rain later tonight could be heavy enough to result in localized
flooding. A total of 1-2 inches of rain is expected, with locally up
to 3 inches possible. Flood prone creeks and streams could also see
significant rises across the Schuylkill, Delaware, Rancocas, Raritan,
and Passaic basins.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-032015-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
405 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Nov 2, 11:53 PM EDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1153 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018

DEZ001-NJZ009-010-015>018-PAZ070-071-104-106-030430-
New Castle-Hunterdon-Salem-Camden-Somerset-Mercer-Gloucester-Lower
Bucks-Eastern Montgomery-Delaware-Philadelphia-
1153 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN NEW CASTLE...
NORTHWESTERN SALEM...SOUTHEASTERN HUNTERDON...NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN...
NORTHWESTERN MERCER...NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER...SOUTHWESTERN
SOMERSET...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS...
PHILADELPHIA AND EASTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES...

At 1153 PM EDT, radar indicated showers were located along a line
extending from near Doylestown to Delaware Memorial Bridge. Movement
was northeast at 25 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Philadelphia, Camden, Wilmington, Gloucester City, Ewing, Chester,
Deptford, West Deptford, Pennsville, Bellmawr, Yeadon, Woodbury,
Carneys Point, Palmyra, Hatboro, Folcroft, Ambler, Swarthmore,
Paulsboro and New Castle.

LAT...LON 4052 7467 4002 7502 4000 7505 3999 7504
      3968 7525 3962 7546 3966 7548 3962 7547
      3961 7556 3957 7564 3961 7562 3960 7559
      3966 7552 3971 7549 3972 7552 3966 7558
      4028 7515
TIME...MOT...LOC 0353Z 242DEG 21KT 4025 7513 3967 7553

SFJ
Special weather statement, Nov 3, 12:13 AM EDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1213 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

NJZ016>019-021-022-030515-
Northwestern Burlington-Salem-Cumberland-Camden-Atlantic-Gloucester-
1213 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...
CUMBERLAND...SALEM...CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER AND WEST CENTRAL BURLINGTON
COUNTIES...

At 1213 AM EDT, radar indicated showers were located along a line
extending from near Penns Grove to near Woodland Beach. Movement was
east at 25 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Camden, Wilmington, Vineland, Millville, Bridgeton, Gloucester City,
Cherry Hill, Evesham, Mount Laurel, Deptford, Voorhees, West
Deptford, Glassboro, Lindenwold, Hammonton, Pennsville, Lumberton,
Bellmawr, Woodbury and Pitman.

LAT...LON 3940 7482 3930 7531 3934 7533 3935 7539
      3945 7549 3954 7550 3962 7545 3962 7547
      3959 7548 3962 7548 3965 7546 3966 7548
      3973 7548 3977 7546 4003 7480
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 248DEG 21KT 3972 7541 3937 7541

SFJ
Special weather statement, Nov 3, 12:18 AM EDT, 2 hours 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1218 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ062-105-106-030445-
Morris-Hunterdon-Sussex-Somerset-Warren-Lower Bucks-Upper
Bucks-Northampton-
1218 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

...A SHOWER WILL AFFECT MORRIS...HUNTERDON...SOUTHEASTERN SUSSEX...
WARREN...SOMERSET...NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON
COUNTIES...

At 1218 AM EDT, a shower was located over Mendham, or near
Morristown, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with this shower.

Locations impacted include...
Morristown, Somerville, Bridgewater, Dover, Madison, Hopatcong,
Middlesex, Florham Park, East Hanover, Lincoln Park, Bound Brook,
Manville, Kinnelon, Hackettstown, Chatham, Byram, Boonton, Butler,
Wharton and Washington.

LAT...LON 4110 7449 4104 7450 4105 7445 4102 7443
      4100 7430 4090 7427 4091 7433 4083 7433
      4076 7438 4075 7436 4067 7446 4066 7445
      4066 7440 4063 7442 4056 7453 4030 7510
      4079 7519 4121 7438
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 248DEG 32KT 4078 7455

SFJ
Local storm report, Nov 3, 12:39 AM EDT, 1 hour 55 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1239 AM EDT SAT NOV 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST WHITELAND TWP      40.04N  75.56W
11/02/2018                   CHESTER            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL RESIDENCES, INCLUDING A GROUP HOME, SUSTAINED
            DAMAGE FROM DOWNED TREES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1801795

MEOLA
Special weather statement, Nov 3, 12:50 AM EDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1250 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

DEZ003-004-030515-
Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-
1250 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SUSSEX
COUNTY...

At 1250 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Georgetown to near Delmar. Movement
was northeast at 50 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Millsboro, Lewes, Milton, Henlopen Acres, Sycamore, Cape
Henlopen State Park and Long Neck.

LAT...LON 3866 7554 3890 7529 3879 7516 3878 7512
      3880 7510 3880 7509 3869 7509 3869 7514
      3866 7513 3863 7516 3845 7543 3845 7556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0450Z 217DEG 44KT 3865 7544 3848 7550

SFJ
Special weather statement, Nov 3, 1:00 AM EDT, 1 hour 34 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
100 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

NJZ008>010-012-013-015-018>020-PAZ071-106-030600-
Morris-Hunterdon-Northwestern Burlington-Camden-Ocean-Western
Monmouth-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Lower Bucks-Philadelphia-
100 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2018

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN OCEAN...EASTERN
MORRIS...EASTERN HUNTERDON...CENTRAL CAMDEN...MERCER...NORTHERN
BURLINGTON...SOMERSET...MIDDLESEX...WESTERN MONMOUTH...SOUTHEASTERN
BUCKS AND NORTHEASTERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES...

At 100 AM EDT, radar indicated showers were located along a line
extending from near Flemington to Magnolia. Movement was northeast at
40 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Philadelphia, Trenton, New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Morristown,
Somerville, Somerset, Edison, Cherry Hill, Old Bridge, Bensalem, East
Brunswick, Evesham, Bridgewater, South Brunswick, Sayreville, Mount
Laurel, North Brunswick, Manalapan and Ewing.

LAT...LON 4050 7426 4050 7428 4046 7424 4018 7428
      3975 7503 4061 7494 4102 7439 4100 7430
      4090 7427 4091 7433 4083 7433 4076 7438
      4075 7436 4067 7446 4066 7445 4065 7440
      4060 7446 4060 7423
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 229DEG 35KT 4056 7494 3983 7502

SFJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 2, 8:22 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBerks, Lehigh, Northampton4 hr
Nov 2, 9:28 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBerks, Bucks, Chester, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton4 hr
Nov 2, 9:48 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHIBerks, Chester27 min
Nov 2, 10:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIChester, Delaware, Montgomery51 min
Nov 2, 10:32 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIBerks, Chester, Montgomery28 min
Nov 2, 10:36 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHINorthampton24 min
Nov 2, 10:45 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningPHIBerks, Bucks, Chester, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton13 hr
Nov 2, 10:47 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIBerks, Bucks, Chester, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton43 min
Nov 2, 10:53 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIBerks, Bucks, Chester, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton4 hr
Nov 2, 10:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh, Montgomery and 1 more67 min
Nov 2, 11:23 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIBucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Philadelphia24 min
Nov 2, 11:25 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Philadelphia4 hr
Nov 2, 11:49 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIBucks26 min
Nov 2, 11:53 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBucks4 hr
Nov 2, 11:53 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHIDelaware, Philadelphia37 min
Nov 3, 12:20 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBerks, Carbon, Lehigh, Monroe, Northampton4 hr
Nov 3, 1:03 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningPHILehigh5 hr
Nov 3, 1:29 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIMonroe, Northampton4 hr
Nov 3, 1:41 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBucks4 hr
Nov 3, 2:03 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningPHIChester6 hr
Nov 3, 2:40 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningPHIMontgomery10 hr
Nov 3, 2:40 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningPHIChester, Montgomery, Philadelphia15 hr
Nov 3, 3:21 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningPHIBucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Philadelphia4 hr
Nov 3, 5:00 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningPHIChester, Delaware6 hr
Nov 3, 7:01 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningPHIBucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Philadelphia5 hr
Nov 3, 11:44 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningPHIBerks, Bucks, Chester, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton8 hr
Nov 3, 5:19 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningPHINorthampton22 hr
Nov 2, 9:26 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIMorris, Sussex, Warren4 hr
Nov 2, 11:13 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningPHI62 min
Nov 2, 11:43 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHICumberland32 min
Nov 3, 12:09 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningPHI66 min
Nov 3, 12:13 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHICamden, Gloucester, Salem62 min
Nov 3, 12:18 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHIHunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Warren27 min
Nov 3, 1:00 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHICamden, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset60 min
Nov 3, 1:06 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningPHI54 min
Nov 3, 1:29 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningPHI91 min
Nov 3, 2:00 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningPHIMorris, Passaic37 hr
Nov 3, 3:15 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningPHIHunterdon, Somerset4 hr
Nov 3, 5:54 PM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryPHI12 hr

Nearby

Areal Flood Warnings in New Jersey, 2018Areal Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2018Every areal flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.