Areal Flood Advisory 191, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
948 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain south and east of the region
overnight and through the weekend. A low pressure trough will
affect the area tonight and early Saturday. Another trough and
weak front will slide towards the area later Monday and remain
across the area until the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The main area of rain was coming together ahead of the mid
level short wave trough this evening. The heavy rain extended
from northern Virginia, across central Maryland to eastern
Pennsylvania around 9:30 PM.

The heavy rain will lift slowly northeastward across our region
during the night. The heaviest rain should be mainly to the
northwest of the Interstate 95 Corridor. A Flash Flood Watch
remains in effect for Berks County, the Lehigh Valley and the
Pocono Region in Pennsylvania, and for northern New Jersey. A
brief period of heavy rain is possible along and to the
southeast of the Interstate 95 Corridor as the tail end of the
precipitation area lifts through that region.

A light south to southwest wind is anticipated overnight. Lows
should range from the upper 60s to the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A cold front works its way through the region during the day
Saturday. Heavy precip begins to taper off late Saturday
morning, but additional showers and possible thunderstorms will
impact eastern zones through the late morning and into the
afternoon. Conditions should begin to clear out over western
zones by midday, and then for eastern zones by late afternoon.

Expect highs generally in the mid to upper 80s except a bit
cooler right along the coast and over the southern Poconos.
Humidity will also remain high with dew points remaining above
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Typical summertime weather will remain across the area during
the long term. A high pressure system will continue to pump
humid and very warm air across the area, while occasionally an
upper disturbance or weak surface front will set off showers and
thunderstorms.

The favored time periods for showers and thunderstorms will be
from next Monday night and into the Wed/Thu period as another
upper trough and sfc front meanders across the area. Preceding
this, ample warn and humid air will be in place, so the
possibility for some heavy downpours will be upon us once again.
We have mostly chc pops for the fcst for Tue thru Thu.

Temperatures will be well above normal Sunday and Monday, the
two dry days as an upper ridge will be across the region. Heat
index values during these days will be in the low/mid 90s,so
some limited heat related issues are possible across the urban
areas. After Monday, the added clouds will probably cause
temperatures to fall back closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...MVFR and IFR at KRDG and KABE with rain, heavy at
times. VFR lowering to MVFR and IFR in moderate to heavy rain at
KILG, KPHL, KPNE and KTTN. VFR lowering to MVFR in light to
moderate rain at KMIV and KACY. Isolated thunder is expected but
it should not be widespread enough to include in the TAFs.
South to southwest wind 8 knots or less.

Saturday...MVFR in the morning with rain ending. Conditions
improving to VFR for the afternoon hours with clearing taking
place at that time. Southwest wind 6 to 12 knots becoming west.

OUTLOOK...
Saturday night thru Monday...Mostly VFR. Patchy fog psbl
   overnight.

Monday night thru Wednesday...Mostly VFR. Sct tstms with lower
   conditions psbl.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will be below SCA criteria overnight and into
Saturday morning. SW winds may gust to 25 kt Saturday afternoon,
but confidence is low in that happening at this time.

OUTLOOK...
Sub-SCA expected. Fair weather Sat night thru Monday night. Sct
showers and tstms Tue thru Wed.

RIP CURRENTS...
There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents on Saturday at the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. The
wind should be from the south and southwest around 10 MPH.
Waves in the surf zone are forecast to be around 3 feet with a
moderate period primary swell. However, there should be an
underlying long period swell (around 14 seconds) from the
southeast and that is the main reason for the moderate risk.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ054-055-
     060>062.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ001-007-008.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...O'Hara
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...O'Hara
Aviation...Iovino/O'Hara
Marine...MPS/O'Hara

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
958 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-050200-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
958 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey, east
central Pennsylvania and northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ070-071-101>106-050200-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-
Cape May-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
958 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may produce very heavy
downpours leading to urban, small stream and poor drainage flooding
in spots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely continue into
Saturday morning before moving out of the area by afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-050200-
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
958 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may produce very heavy
downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding in spots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents on Saturday.

Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely continue into
Saturday morning before moving out of the area by afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-050200-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
958 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

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