Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
830 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms are likely this evening as a cold front
crosses. The weekend will feature sunshine and temperature in
the low 80s. Humidity and rain will return next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Changes for the mid eve update mainly involved adjustments to
POPs as convection has been slow to invade PBZ airspace.
Nevertheless, showers and storm remain likely for areas north of
PIT. The severe threat for downburst wind gusts continues, but
is waning as boundary layer instability is fading with the sun.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will advance ewd on Fri and may focus early-
afternoon convection along the ridges, while low-level
instability in the I-80 corridor supports brief coverage of
showers in the afternoon. Storms along the ridges will shift
ewd quickly into central PA, while the nrn showers will
dissipate amid low-level dry air advection and building high
pressure in the wake of the front.

Surface high pressure is expected to build on the back side of
the broad upper low Fri night through Sat night, with dry and
cooler weather expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern on Sun, with
seasonable warmth and little expected in the way of rain.

An amplifying wrn-CONUS ridge and an entrenched Bermuda High
will promote troughing in the central CONUS for much of next
week. Ensembles show high consistency in deep swly flow
developing from the Gulf Coast to wrn PA, suggesting deep
moisture return early next week.

As a result, increasing humidity, warmth and potential for heavy
rain will remain in the realms of possibility Mon-Wed as
shortwave troughs advance thru the swly flow pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and storms along the cold front will pass tonight.
Loss of diurnal heating will result in a weakening of storms as
they move southeastward, thus a VCTS mention was only carried
as far south as PIT. Mixing in the boundary layer will be
sufficient overnight to limit fog development, although some
scattered MVFR/IFR cigs may be possible. Additional development
is progged for tomorrow although coverage is too low for any
SHRA inclusion at this time.

A WSW wind shift is anticipated overnight with the boundary
passage. Wind will remain 10kts or less tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...
No widespread IFR weather is forecast.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1251 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

MDZ001-OHZ057>059-068-069-PAZ016-021>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ002>004-
012-021-509>514-271700-
Garrett-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Jefferson-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-
Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1251 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania, west central Pennsylvania,
northern West Virginia and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ039>041-048>050-PAZ007>009-013>015-020-WVZ001-271700-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson-Mercer-
Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Beaver-Hancock-
1251 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northwest
Pennsylvania, west central Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania and
northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts will be
possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Kramar

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
802 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2018

PAZ008-270030-
Venango-
802 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND WILL AFFECT
NORTHERN VENANGO COUNTY...

At 802 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sugarcreek, or
7 miles northwest of Franklin, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oil City...                       Sugarcreek...
Hasson Heights...                 Rouseville...
Cooperstown...                    Pleasantville...
Utica...                          Oil Creek State Park...

Campers should consider seeking sturdy shelter until this storm
passes.

LAT...LON 4149 7951 4144 7952 4144 7948 4143 7948
      4143 8000 4150 8000 4150 7998 4151 7998
      4151 7996 4154 7994 4154 7993 4157 7989
      4159 7985 4160 7985 4160 7983 4162 7983
      4162 7951
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 278DEG 34KT 4150 7990