Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
830 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms are likely this evening as a cold front
crosses. The weekend will feature sunshine and temperature in
the low 80s. Humidity and rain will return next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Changes for the mid eve update mainly involved adjustments to
POPs as convection has been slow to invade PBZ airspace.
Nevertheless, showers and storm remain likely for areas north of
PIT. The severe threat for downburst wind gusts continues, but
is waning as boundary layer instability is fading with the sun.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will advance ewd on Fri and may focus early-
afternoon convection along the ridges, while low-level
instability in the I-80 corridor supports brief coverage of
showers in the afternoon. Storms along the ridges will shift
ewd quickly into central PA, while the nrn showers will
dissipate amid low-level dry air advection and building high
pressure in the wake of the front.

Surface high pressure is expected to build on the back side of
the broad upper low Fri night through Sat night, with dry and
cooler weather expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern on Sun, with
seasonable warmth and little expected in the way of rain.

An amplifying wrn-CONUS ridge and an entrenched Bermuda High
will promote troughing in the central CONUS for much of next
week. Ensembles show high consistency in deep swly flow
developing from the Gulf Coast to wrn PA, suggesting deep
moisture return early next week.

As a result, increasing humidity, warmth and potential for heavy
rain will remain in the realms of possibility Mon-Wed as
shortwave troughs advance thru the swly flow pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and storms along the cold front will pass tonight.
Loss of diurnal heating will result in a weakening of storms as
they move southeastward, thus a VCTS mention was only carried
as far south as PIT. Mixing in the boundary layer will be
sufficient overnight to limit fog development, although some
scattered MVFR/IFR cigs may be possible. Additional development
is progged for tomorrow although coverage is too low for any
SHRA inclusion at this time.

A WSW wind shift is anticipated overnight with the boundary
passage. Wind will remain 10kts or less tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...
No widespread IFR weather is forecast.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

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