River Flood Warning 25, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
520 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will taper off today, as a cold front exits the region.
Colder air will move in behind the exiting front which could
allow for a brief period of snow showers before the
precipitation ends. Next system arrives Saturday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Front will exit the far southern reaches of the area this
morning. This will push the heavier rain south of the entire
region by mid morning. Cold air advection, and a weak shortwave
trough behind the surface boundary, will keep in the risk for
showers into the afternoon. With the colder air diving southward
today, precipitation may end as snow showers. The far
southeastern portion of my region will continue to see the risk
for precipitation into the evening hours.

Temperatures will slowly fall throughout the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather will return tonight and Saturday morning as high
pressure slides east across the region. Similar to last night,
models continue to struggle with low pressure and a cold front
moving up the coast Saturday afternoon and night. Seeing big
difference between the operational models concerning the
location of the inland surface low and the timing and strength
of the trailing shortwave trough. Still high levels of
uncertainty concerning the amount of qpf that will spread over
the area and in turn the amount of snow. The overall trend has
been further south with the surface low, which is allowing the
colder air to remain, thus even precipitation type, rain or snow
remains in question. For snow amounts, will lean heavily toward
ensemble forecasts with such big differences in the operational
models.

Coastal low will rapidly takes over Saturday night which will
bring a quick end to the snow. Most locations will see the snow
end before midnight, with the possible exception of my eastern
edge of counties, which could see the snow continue into early
Sunday morning.

High pressure will return dry weather on Sunday. Temperatures
should be near to a few degrees above seasonal levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Southwest flow between a Wrn CONUS trough, and a SE CONUS high
should result in warm weather through the period. Shortwaves
embedded in the flow, and proximity to a slow moving frontal
boundary, should keep periodic rain chances through mid to late
week. The warmest day of the week looks to be Tuesday, before
the front arrives.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain will end from NW to SE today, but MVFR/IFR ceilings will
persist at least through the morning.

Northwest winds are expected to increase later this morning.
Gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible later this morning and into
the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible again on Saturday and
Saturday night and Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread moderate to heavy rain will continue overnight. The
flood watch will continue as is. Flooding is also expected for
specific points along the Ohio and Mon rivers. The point at
Pittsburgh is expected to rise above flood stage, 25 ft, Sat
morning.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MDZ001.
OH...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OHZ039>041-048>050-
     057>059-068-069.
PA...Flood Watch through this afternoon for PAZ013-014-020>023-029-
     031-073>076.
WV...Flood Watch through this afternoon for WVZ001>004-012-021-
     509>514.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
357 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ013-014-020>023-029-031-
073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-170900-
Garrett-Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Lawrence-Butler-Beaver-
Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-
Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
357 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania, west central Pennsylvania,
western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and northern panhandle
of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ007>009-015-016-170900-
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Clarion-Jefferson-
357 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania and
west central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
720 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 AM     FLOOD            HEIDELBERG              40.39N  80.09W
02/16/2018                   ALLEGHENY          PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CHARTIERS CREEK IS OUT OF ITS BANKS FLOODING NEARBY
            ROADS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1801949

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