Tornado Warning 18, NWS Paducah, KY

955 
WWUS53 KPAH 032301 RRA
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
601 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

MOC143-201-207-032315-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-180403T2315Z/
Scott MO-New Madrid MO-Stoddard MO-
601 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL SCOTT...NORTHEASTERN NEW MADRID AND SOUTHEASTERN STODDARD
COUNTIES...
    
At 600 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Canalou, or 9 miles east of Dexter, moving east at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. A brief tornado was reported with 
         this storm northeast of Bernie at 555 pm CDT.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

Locations impacted include...
Sikeston, Miner, Morehouse, Matthews, Essex, Canalou, Farrenburg,
Baker and Penermon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3684 8987 3692 8956 3688 8951 3687 8952
      3685 8952 3683 8950 3683 8948 3682 8948
      3679 8945 3677 8945 3673 8940 3670 8939
      3670 8937 3667 8936 3664 8933 3663 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 261DEG 28KT 3675 8979 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

PS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
342 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 313PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Main concern comes late this afternoon/early tonight as broad mid
level trof and associated strong cold front move rapidly east
toward the region. MUCAPES greater than 2000 J/KG now streaming
northeast ahead of the surface front, with dew points into the mid
60s. Storms have initiated and quickly strengthened just west of
our forecast area. This general trend is expected to continue. As
storm coverage increases, a strongly sheared environment (around 50
kt of 0-6 km bulk shear) favors storm organization and the
general expectation is for numerous severe storms to develop along
and just ahead of the front during the next several hours. Given
the steep lapse rates across the region, large hail greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible in within these strong and
rotating updrafts.

Major concerns for widespread damaging wind threat as well as bow
segments evolve within the line. Low level winds from the ssw
will likely inhibit some of the inflow into the broken line of
storms, but still cannot rule out a few significant tornadoes
across the region given the other environmental parameters.
Actual storm movements could approach 45-50 mph in some cells.

Storms should sweep east to near the OH/MS river confluence zone
up toward the Wabash River valley by 00z (6-7 PM CDT) this
evening, then exit our e/se counties by 02-03Z as the cold front
passes through that region. Much colder air will quickly replace
the unusually warm/humid conditions now over the region. Blustery
nw winds of 15 to 25 MPH with higher gusts will usher the colder
air in and push temps down into the 30s by Wed morning. Though
strong winds should preclude any frost formation, some locations
in se MO/srn IL could receive a light freeze before the sun come
up.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Medium confidence in the extended especially early on in the
forecast. The timing of the models is in better agreement at least
through Saturday. By Sunday the models start to diverge with their
solutions.

The models do agree on a dry period starting Wednesday and
persisting through most of Friday. However winds will still be a
little gusty Wednesday in the cold fronts wake while the surface
high is centered over the plains. As the high drifts overhead
Thursday morning. This could result in frost for the region. Will
monitor this closely but will not go with a headline yet due to the
ongoing larger impact headlines currently in effect. The flow aloft
will remain northwest and spoke of energy reaches the area late
Friday with a surface reflection of a cold front. This system will
bring rainshowers to the area as early as Friday afternoon and
possibly change over to wintry mix as we approach midnight and
finally change over to all snow after midnight then ending early
Saturday morning. Saturday should be dry for most areas. Sunday is
where the models start to diverge with their solutions. The latest
GFS brings a short wave out of the northern plains as warm front
lifts from the south. The ECMWF keeps the system mainly north of the
area with just a glancing blow along the Interstate 64 corridor. As
we head into next week the models keep us mainly dry but if there is
any rain it should be light with very little impact. Will keep
temperatures well below normal through the rest of the forecast
after this afternoon. There may be several chances of frost and
possibly even a freeze in the extended. Again will monitor this
closely.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

VFR conditions prevail at most sites early this morning. Widespread
cumulus or stratocumulus clouds will form by midday, with cigs
mainly in the mvfr category. The best chance of vfr will be over the
kowb area of west KY. Winds will increase from the south and then
southwest, gusting to near 35 knots at times this afternoon.

A line of thunderstorms will accompany a strong cold front as it
races east late this afternoon and early this evening. The duration
of the storms will be an hour or less. Any ifr conditions in the
storms will be too brief to warrant inclusion in the tafs at this
time range. The main hazard with the storms will be strong winds,
which could be damaging in isolated locations. Winds will shift into
the northwest as the front passes, followed by more strong gusts up
to about 30 knots. MVFR cigs should linger through the night in the
kevv/kowb areas, but they are likely to improve to vfr at kpah/kcgi.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...MY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-041000-

Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-
Franklin-Hamilton-White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-
Johnson-Pope-Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-
Vanderburgh-Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-
McCracken-Graves-Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-
Caldwell-Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

...MODERATE RISK of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The potential exists this afternoon into early tonight for a
significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including a few
significant tornadoes.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to form along a strong cold
front as it crosses southeast Missouri and southern Illinois this
afternoon. This line of storms will then sweep east across western
Kentucky and southwest Indiana later this afternoon and this
evening. Isolated severe storms will also be possible out ahead of
this main line this afternoon into the early evening.

Damaging winds...large hail and tornadoes will all be possible
hazards with this potentially significant event.

Outside of thunderstorms, south winds will be strong and gusty
today. A Wind Advisory is in effect for today for sustained winds
up to 25 mph with gusts from 40 to 45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Widespread frost is likely on Wednesday night, with low
temperatures right around freezing.

A light wintry mix of precipitation is possible on Friday night,
with little or no accumulation. Freezing temperatures are likely
Friday night, generally in the upper 20s to around 30. Lows on
Saturday night will be near freezing in many areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon
into this evening.

MEFFERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
529 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENVILLE              37.13N 90.45W
04/03/2018                   WAYNE              MO   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER OUTAGES REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
530 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             1 E SCOTT CITY          37.22N 89.51W
04/03/2018  M1.00 INCH       SCOTT              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
536 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S CAPE GIRARDEAU      37.24N 89.55W
04/03/2018  M58 MPH          SCOTT              MO   ASOS

            REPORTED AT THE CAPE GIRARDEAU REGIONAL AIRPORT WHICH
            SETS IN SCOTT COUNTY MISSOURI. ONE QUARTER MILE
            VISIBILITY REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
537 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             DEXTER                  36.79N 89.96W
04/03/2018  M1.00 INCH       STODDARD           MO   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
539 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             5 N DEXTER              36.86N 89.96W
04/03/2018  M0.75 INCH       STODDARD           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 25.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
545 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             DEXTER                  36.79N 89.96W
04/03/2018  M1.25 INCH       STODDARD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORT

&&

SMITTY