Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
424 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 425 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Given the mesoscale nature of the training thunderstorms from the
confluence the Mississippi and Ohio River eastward through west
Kentucky and extreme southern Illinois, will hold off extending
the Flash Flood Watch further west to include the impacted
counties. The foci for this convective boundary did not come into
play until the middle of the afternoon, so it may be too late to
consider a downstream watch at this time, but will monitor.

Discrete cells are still developing in in south central Missouri,
so still feel SPC's tornado watch call for southeast Missouri into
southwest Illinois is warranted. The local eastward extension
will remain, given the enhanced shear/instability possible along
the boundary extending into the southern Pennyrile.

Most of the forcing associated with trough/upper low should move
east of the majority of the WFO PAH forecast area after 06z Friday
(1 am CDT). Lingering convection may remain in the eastern
counties through the late morning on Friday.

Depending on the amount of insolation and temperature recovery
tomorrow morning, heat index values may rise back into the middle
and upper 90s over southeast Missouri. Given the uncertainty, may
remove a mention of heat index values at or above 100 degrees on
Friday in the hazardous weather outlook.

The signal for strong to severe convection looks likely again
for late Saturday afternoon and evening. Given the negative tilt,
shear, and narrow zone of instability associated with the
northern Plains/upper Midwest trough, cannot rule out severe
weather again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 425 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Northerly flow and high pressure will dominate the remainder of
the WFO PAH forecast area for the extended forecast period. Have
average confidence that dry weather will persist through
Wednesday, but for now will keep the forecast close to the
regionally initialized model guidance in collaboration with
surrounding NWS offices.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Attempted to time the departure of the MCS (Mesoscale Convective
System from the KEVV/KOWB TAF's during the next 1-3 hour. In
addition, added new convection to the KCGI/KPAH TAF locations with
the onset of the next MCS later this afternoon and this evening.
Kept most weather conditions in VFR category outside of the
thunderstorm activity with MVFR category associated with
convection. Given the short time scale for severe potential wind
gusts and ceilings, may have to make amendments to reflect those
short fuse situations.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for KYZ014-018>020.

&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
118 pm CDT Thu May 31 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
118 pm CDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Another round of thunderstorms will develop over parts of southeast
Missouri, southwest Illinois, and parts of west Kentucky by early
afternoon, then move east over the remainder of southern Illinois,
southwest Indiana, and west Kentucky during the middle and late
afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary hazards.

The initial thunderstorms this afternoon may be isolated, discrete
supercells, gradually developing together to form a line of strong
to severe thunderstorms. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out of
the question at this time.

There is also a good  potential for the training of storms this
afternoon and this evening and may produce some localized flash
flooding concerns.

Heat index values may reach 100 this afternoon near the confluence
of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers and southward to the Missouri
Bootheel.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A chance of thunderstorms is forecast for portions of the area on
Friday, particularly across western Kentucky. Locally heavy rain
and lightning will be the main hazards.

Another chance of thunderstorms is forecast Saturday afternoon
through the night. Some of these storms may be severe with damaging
winds and large hail along with torrential rainfall and lightning.

Afternoon heat index readings may approach 100 degrees on Saturday
afternoon across portions of southeast Missouri.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared for activation throughout the area
this afternoon and evening, and again Saturday afternoon and
evening.

DRS/SP/Smith

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
444 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N HOPKINSVILLE        36.90N 87.49W
05/31/2018                   CHRISTIAN          KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
445 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST PADUCAH            37.08N 88.74W
05/31/2018  M1.74 INCH       MCCRACKEN          KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ONE HOUR RAINFALL ACCUMULATION AT NWS OFFICE IN WEST
            PADUCAH.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
446 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N HOPKINSVILLE        36.90N 87.49W
05/31/2018                   CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE FOOT OF WATER OVER HIGHWAY 41 NEAR OLD KELLY ROAD
            JUNCTION.

&&

RICKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
448 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 N HOPKINSVILLE        36.94N 87.49W
05/31/2018  M1.26 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   MESONET

            40 MINUTE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION

&&

SMITTY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
451 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYZ021-312230-
Muhlenberg KY-
451 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 450 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Central City--Greenville, or near Greenville In Muhlenberg County,
moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Central City, Greenville In Muhlenberg County, Powderly, Central
City--Greenville, Weir, Dunmor and Drakesboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 8691 3709 8689 3707 8695 3707 8698
      3704 8719 3728 8728 3731 8699 3727 8698
      3726 8696 3724 8694 3724 8691 3723 8692
      3721 8690 3719 8691 3718 8689 3718 8692
      3714 8693 3711 8689
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 260DEG 30KT 3716 8711

ML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
505 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOPKINSVILLE            36.85N 87.49W
05/31/2018                   CHRISTIAN          KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED IN HAPPY HOLLOW AREA.

&&

SMITTY