Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
314 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Storms and heat are the main forecast concerns. A weak surface
boundary remains quasi-stationary from around kmdh to just
northeast of kpah to the khop area. Storms continue to regenerate
along parts of this boundary, mainly in western KY. There is
little indication this boundary will move tonight, since the upper
level flow will become parallel to the boundary. Therefore,
isolated to scattered storms remain possible through the night.

Another fly in the ointment is the thunderstorm complex over ne
Missouri. None of the 12z model runs (including href members)
initialized this storm complex. However, the 18z hrrr is the first
model to capture these storms. The hrrr brings these storms
southeast along the aforementioned surface boundary this evening.
Given the orientation of the boundary parallel to the upper flow,
some heavy rainfall amounts will occur if storms continue to train
along it. There is also the potential for isolated wind or hail
events, similar to the multi-cell severe events earlier today. The
air mass remains very unstable near the boundary, due partly to
dew points around 80 degrees.

On Friday, the 500 mb high will build over our region. This will
suppress most convective activity compared to the last few days.
However, there are some indications the weak surface boundary
will still linger over our region Friday. Given the highly
unstable air mass, a few storms may pop up. The 12z href mean qpf
hints at convective activity Friday, though not nearly as strong
as this afternoon.

As far as the heat goes, the 80 degree dew points observed today
are not a good omen for Friday or Saturday. The model guidance
indicates widespread mid to upper 70s dew points both days. High
temps in the mid 90s are expected in much of the area both days.
This yields heat indices over 105 in all areas, and locally over
110 on Friday. An upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning may be
needed for parts of the area, primarily where dew points have
been in the lower 80s from kmdh to kpof. Little if any convection
is forecast to tamp down heat indices on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Heat and humidity will continue through the long term period.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the period,
especially late Sunday into Tuesday, when a 500 mb shortwave
will move east across the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes
region. This shortwave will flatten the 500 mb ridge, sending a
weak surface boundary into our region. A light east to southeast
wind flow is expected for much of the long-term period. Temps
should be a few degrees lower next week, but no change in dew
points is expected. Heat indices are forecast to range from 100 to
105 each afternoon next week.

By Thursday, the ensemble means of the gfs and ecmwf have been
hinting that the 500 mb ridge will begin to retrograde to the
Rockies. This may lead to some weak troughing in the vicinity of
the Appalachians. Pops will be slightly higher Thursday, with
just a slight drop in heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

In the wake of the morning TSRA, VFR conditions should now
dominate at all TAF sites for the remainder of the TAF period. A
stationary front in the area may provide some focus for a small
chance of TSRA toward midday tomorrow, mainly at KPAH and KCGI,
but do not feel it needs to be in the TAFs for now given the low
chances. Variable winds at most site due in part to morning
convection. Expect a gradual return to a southerly flow but values
should remain only around 5 knots during the day and AOB 5 knots
tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for INZ081-
     082-085>088.

KY...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RLS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
410 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-292115-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
410 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will continue along a stalled front across
western Kentucky and southern Illinois early this evening. A few
of these storms may reach severe levels, with strong winds and
hail up to the size of quarters. Very heavy rainfall will also
accompany these slow moving storms.

A more organized complex of thunderstorms will move southeast down
the Mississippi Valley. This complex of storms may cross the
lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri this evening. These
storms could be locally severe, with isolated damaging wind gusts
and large hail. Very heavy rainfall is also possible.

Heat index values will range from 100 to 115 degrees outside of
thunderstorms until early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The heat index will hit triple digits each afternoon, with peak
numbers of 105 to 115 projected Friday and 105 to 110 Saturday.
Please refer to the Heat Advisory for more details.

Daily thunderstorm chances will be mainly during the heat of the
afternoon and evening, with heavy rain and lightning as the primary
storm hazards. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled
out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this evening.

York/RJP

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
541 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

ILZ081>087-282330-
White IL-Saline IL-Franklin IL-Jackson IL-Gallatin IL-Hamilton IL-
Williamson IL-
541 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WHITE...
WILLIAMSON...SALINE...NORTHEASTERN JACKSON...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...
HAMILTON AND GALLATIN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 541 PM CDT, emergency management reported strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Mcleansboro to De Soto. Movement was
southeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Carbondale, Marion, Herrin, Harrisburg, West Frankfort, Murphysboro,
Benton, Carterville, Eldorado, Johnston City, Mcleansboro,
Christopher, Shawneetown, Zeigler, De Soto, Norris City, Crainville,
Cambria, Royalton and Energy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central, southern and southeastern Illinois...southwestern
Indiana...and northwestern Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3791 8809 3790 8810 3785 8807 3784 8803
      3782 8804 3783 8808 3781 8809 3780 8807
      3780 8803 3774 8806 3771 8812 3766 8816
      3757 8814 3757 8815 3760 8818 3760 8912
      3782 8945 3820 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 314DEG 47KT 3807 8849 3782 8921

DWS

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