Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion...correction
National Weather Service Paducah KY
713 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
Issued 713 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

A severe mesoscale convective system will barrel southward through
much of the PAH forecast region this evening. The very unstable
atmosphere will be favorable for this "wind machine" to continue all
the way through to the AR/TN state lines before midnight. Severe
weather is likely across a wide swath of the county warning area.

Also updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Storms and heat are the main forecast concerns. A weak surface
boundary remains quasi-stationary from around kmdh to just
northeast of kpah to the khop area. Storms continue to regenerate
along parts of this boundary, mainly in western KY. There is
little indication this boundary will move tonight, since the upper
level flow will become parallel to the boundary. Therefore,
isolated to scattered storms remain possible through the night.

Another fly in the ointment is the thunderstorm complex over ne
Missouri. None of the 12z model runs (including href members)
initialized this storm complex. However, the 18z hrrr is the first
model to capture these storms. The hrrr brings these storms
southeast along the aforementioned surface boundary this evening.
Given the orientation of the boundary parallel to the upper flow,
some heavy rainfall amounts will occur if storms continue to train
along it. There is also the potential for isolated wind or hail
events, similar to the multi-cell severe events earlier today. The
air mass remains very unstable near the boundary, due partly to
dew points around 80 degrees.

On Friday, the 500 mb high will build over our region. This will
suppress most convective activity compared to the last few days.
However, there are some indications the weak surface boundary
will still linger over our region Friday. Given the highly
unstable air mass, a few storms may pop up. The 12z href mean qpf
hints at convective activity Friday, though not nearly as strong
as this afternoon.

As far as the heat goes, the 80 degree dew points observed today
are not a good omen for Friday or Saturday. The model guidance
indicates widespread mid to upper 70s dew points both days. High
temps in the mid 90s are expected in much of the area both days.
This yields heat indices over 105 in all areas, and locally over
110 on Friday. An upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning may be
needed for parts of the area, primarily where dew points have
been in the lower 80s from kmdh to kpof. Little if any convection
is forecast to tamp down heat indices on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Heat and humidity will continue through the long term period.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the period,
especially late Sunday into Tuesday, when a 500 mb shortwave
will move east across the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes
region. This shortwave will flatten the 500 mb ridge, sending a
weak surface boundary into our region. A light east to southeast
wind flow is expected for much of the long-term period. Temps
should be a few degrees lower next week, but no change in dew
points is expected. Heat indices are forecast to range from 100 to
105 each afternoon next week.

By Thursday, the ensemble means of the gfs and ecmwf have been
hinting that the 500 mb ridge will begin to retrograde to the
Rockies. This may lead to some weak troughing in the vicinity of
the Appalachians. Pops will be slightly higher Thursday, with
just a slight drop in heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 713 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

An MCS will surge southward through a wide swath of the region this
evening, creating a hazard to aircraft. IFR conditions and high
winds are likely at the KCGI/KPAH TAF sites by mid-evening,
associated with a line of severe tstms. East of the Wabash River,
high winds are less likely this evening. In the wake of this system,
winds should be quite variable in direction as conditions gradually
recover to VFR, with an eventual recovery to a light south to
southeast wind and a dropoff in pcpn chances during the day Fri.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for INZ081-
     082-085>088.

KY...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

UPDATE...DB
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
410 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-292115-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
410 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will continue along a stalled front across
western Kentucky and southern Illinois early this evening. A few
of these storms may reach severe levels, with strong winds and
hail up to the size of quarters. Very heavy rainfall will also
accompany these slow moving storms.

A more organized complex of thunderstorms will move southeast down
the Mississippi Valley. This complex of storms may cross the
lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri this evening. These
storms could be locally severe, with isolated damaging wind gusts
and large hail. Very heavy rainfall is also possible.

Heat index values will range from 100 to 115 degrees outside of
thunderstorms until early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The heat index will hit triple digits each afternoon, with peak
numbers of 105 to 115 projected Friday and 105 to 110 Saturday.
Please refer to the Heat Advisory for more details.

Daily thunderstorm chances will be mainly during the heat of the
afternoon and evening, with heavy rain and lightning as the primary
storm hazards. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled
out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this evening.

York/RJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
750 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PERRYVILLE              37.73N 89.87W
06/28/2018                   PERRY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 INJ *** A PERSON WAS HIT BY AWNING AT INTERSECTION
            OF HWY 51 AND 61 DUE TO STRONG WINDS.

&&

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
751 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PERRYVILLE              37.73N 89.87W
06/28/2018                   PERRY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 INJ *** A PERSON WAS HIT BY AWNING AT INTERSECTION
            OF HWY 51 AND 61 DUE TO STRONG WINDS.

&&

SP

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