Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
808 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Updated to replace tornado watch with a severe thunderstorm watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 425 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Given the mesoscale nature of the training thunderstorms from the
confluence the Mississippi and Ohio River eastward through west
Kentucky and extreme southern Illinois, will hold off extending
the Flash Flood Watch further west to include the impacted
counties. The foci for this convective boundary did not come into
play until the middle of the afternoon, so it may be too late to
consider a downstream watch at this time, but will monitor.

Discrete cells are still developing in in south central Missouri,
so still feel SPC's tornado watch call for southeast Missouri into
southwest Illinois is warranted. The local eastward extension
will remain, given the enhanced shear/instability possible along
the boundary extending into the southern Pennyrile.

Most of the forcing associated with trough/upper low should move
east of the majority of the WFO PAH forecast area after 06z Friday
(1 am CDT). Lingering convection may remain in the eastern
counties through the late morning on Friday.

Depending on the amount of insolation and temperature recovery
tomorrow morning, heat index values may rise back into the middle
and upper 90s over southeast Missouri. Given the uncertainty, may
remove a mention of heat index values at or above 100 degrees on
Friday in the hazardous weather outlook.

The signal for strong to severe convection looks likely again
for late Saturday afternoon and evening. Given the negative tilt,
shear, and narrow zone of instability associated with the
northern Plains/upper Midwest trough, cannot rule out severe
weather again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 425 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Northerly flow and high pressure will dominate the remainder of
the WFO PAH forecast area for the extended forecast period. Have
average confidence that dry weather will persist through
Wednesday, but for now will keep the forecast close to the
regionally initialized model guidance in collaboration with
surrounding NWS offices.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 629 pm CDT Thu May 31 2018

Quite complicated scenario with competing convective boundaries
impacting the development and translation of storms in and near
the WFO PAH TAF sites. In the areas with the highest probability
of convective activity, adjusted ceilings and visibilities into
the MVFR category. Anticipate some adjustments will need to be
made during the evening hours. VFR conditions should dominate
after 12z Friday for all of the WFO PAH TAF sites, as the main
band of convection moves east of the area.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for KYZ014-018>020.

&&

UPDATE...KH
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
118 pm CDT Thu May 31 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
118 pm CDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Another round of thunderstorms will develop over parts of southeast
Missouri, southwest Illinois, and parts of west Kentucky by early
afternoon, then move east over the remainder of southern Illinois,
southwest Indiana, and west Kentucky during the middle and late
afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary hazards.

The initial thunderstorms this afternoon may be isolated, discrete
supercells, gradually developing together to form a line of strong
to severe thunderstorms. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out of
the question at this time.

There is also a good  potential for the training of storms this
afternoon and this evening and may produce some localized flash
flooding concerns.

Heat index values may reach 100 this afternoon near the confluence
of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers and southward to the Missouri
Bootheel.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A chance of thunderstorms is forecast for portions of the area on
Friday, particularly across western Kentucky. Locally heavy rain
and lightning will be the main hazards.

Another chance of thunderstorms is forecast Saturday afternoon
through the night. Some of these storms may be severe with damaging
winds and large hail along with torrential rainfall and lightning.

Afternoon heat index readings may approach 100 degrees on Saturday
afternoon across portions of southeast Missouri.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared for activation throughout the area
this afternoon and evening, and again Saturday afternoon and
evening.

DRS/SP/Smith

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