Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
124 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 109 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Going forecast is coming into form/on track. If anything, some of
the short term modeling has it here/pushing thru a little quicker,
which is in part why SPC has shaved the western edge of our
Enhanced (svr) risk zone. But all things remain virtually
unchanged, with increasing wind shear/instability peaking around
00Z or shortly thereafter. See linear development already upstream
over western AR, and the warm sector convection is ongoing on
into our southern border counties. Anticipate increasing
convective threat thru nightfall, continuing into early evening
hours. Still high pw's will keep the flooding rains a hazard, with
another 1-2" possible thru the end of the event (higher amounts
locally in thunderstorms). So will re-up the FFA (and FLW's) and
continue thru tmrw morning, as we monitor for severe likelihood
thru the evening hours. It looks like a quick/sharp west to east
exit in the 06z-09z time frame with all pcpn over entirely by
12z. The remainder of the short term (Sunday thru Monday night)
will be recovery time, with High pressure giving dry weather and
generally seasonal temps for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 109 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Ran with the blend and targeted the mid week rain chance,
starting Tue night and ending Thursday evening. During that time
frame, the models are increasingly signalling a wet pattern, with
another 1 to 2 inches on average possible, mainly along/south of
the Ohio river. This won't give a whole lot of recovery time from
the previous wetting, upwards to 3 days. Did go ahead and include
some elevated thunder risk late Tue night, and then again Wed
evening, as GFS shows supportive showalters and even some mucape
in the lower 1 km on the back end (time). This could result in
some locally higher totals, and depending upon how our river stems
are responding, may result in another headline/watch scenario. Not
too sold on convective chances just yet, so that's a maybe, but am
sold on some wet weather for the overall time frame.

Temps hold generally mild for this time of year, with a late week
cooldown behind the mid week storm system/wake of its departure.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 109 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Warm front lifting north will keep restricted cigs/vsbys, along
with increasing rain chances, in the forecast. Behind it, linear
convective chances increase into the evening hours, with IFR
restrictions forecast in thunderstorms for its passage. Gusty
south winds will shift to northwest overnight/with fropa, then
diminish upon clearing out/with high pressure taking over tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-
     114.

IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ001>022.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
330 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-251100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
330 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, into the
overnight hours, will pose a severe weather and flooding hazard.

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 9 pm for most of southeast
Missouri, western Kentucky, and far southern Illinois. Refer to
the Watch product for details.

A Flood Watch remains in effect through late tonight, and that
product can be referenced for additional details. In addition,
Flood and Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect as a line of
thunderstorms with heavy rain impact the area.

Numerous river flood warnings are also in effect. Refer to the
warning products and their follow up statements for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible during the
mid week time frame. Refer to the flood warnings and statements
for important river flood details, including the latest updated
information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested this afternoon and evening for
the Tornado Watch. All reports of storm activity are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
730 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
02/24/2018                   VANDERBURGH        IN   PUBLIC

            HIGH WATER RESCUE HAPPENING AT CHRIST ROAD AND KENTUCKY
            AVE.

&&

DWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
732 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

INZ082-087-088-250200-
Warrick IN-Spencer IN-Pike IN-
732 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WARRICK...SPENCER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CST...

At 731 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles east of Winslow to near Folsomville to
near Newburgh. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms. Due to
the saturated ground, some trees may be knocked down easier.

Locations impacted include...
Evansville, Boonville, Newburgh, Dale, Grandview, Holiday World,
Folsomville, Chrisney, Tennyson and Gentryville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 8679 3803 8677 3800 8681 3799 8686
      3794 8692 3793 8698 3790 8704 3791 8732
      3794 8738 3794 8745 3798 8745 3809 8729
      3841 8714 3844 8707 3821 8707 3820 8679
      3812 8681 3810 8677 3808 8678 3806 8677
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 246DEG 65KT 3837 8710 3812 8721 3799 8741

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
804 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MURRAY                  36.61N 88.32W
02/24/2018                   CALLOWAY           KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER OUTAGES REPORTED IN MURRAY AND AT THE MURRAY STATE
            CAMPUS.

&&

ALR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
804 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

INZ087-088-KYZ008>013-015>022-250300-
Warrick IN-Spencer IN-Calloway KY-Todd KY-Webster KY-Caldwell KY-
McLean KY-Hopkins KY-Trigg KY-Marshall KY-Muhlenberg KY-Henderson KY-
Crittenden KY-Christian KY-Lyon KY-Daviess KY-
804 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WARRICK...SPENCER...
EASTERN HENDERSON...CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL...TRIGG...
HOPKINS...LYON...EASTERN CALLOWAY...DAVIESS...MUHLENBERG...EAST
CENTRAL CRITTENDEN...CHRISTIAN...MCLEAN...TODD AND WEBSTER COUNTIES
UNTIL 900 PM CST...

At 804 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Folsomville to near Farmersville to near
Canton to near Springville. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Evansville, Owensboro, Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Oak Grove,
Princeton, Boonville, Central City, Newburgh, Providence, Dawson
Springs, Cadiz, Eddyville, Rockport, Elkton, Calhoun, Fort Campbell
North, Greenville In Muhlenberg County, Land Between The Lakes Area
and Princeton In Caldwell County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for western, south
central and northwestern Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3791 8698 3790 8699 3790 8691 3774 8682
      3747 8712 3748 8713 3734 8714 3735 8702
      3709 8699 3706 8705 3665 8709 3663 8785
      3667 8786 3668 8807 3664 8806 3650 8826
      3719 8808 3821 8718 3821 8679 3800 8677
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 250DEG 54KT 3818 8717 3721 8801 3672 8794 3629
8808

RST

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