Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
624 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.AVIATION...
12/12Z TAFs. VFR conditions expected most terminals for a majority
of forecast period. TSRA early this morning expected to stay east
of KOKC/KOUN. Additional development expected to be isolated
through the day with more widespread TSRA expected toward and
after 03Z, mainly western and northern Oklahoma terminals. Will
include mention in KPNC/KWWR/KCSM for tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Southward propagating MCS over southeast Kansas will skirt our far
northeast counties this morning. Fair amount of diversity in
short-term/high-res model evolutions next 12 to 18 hours. Most
likely scenario will be convective initiation over or just north
and west of northwest Oklahoma, where triple point will exist late
this afternoon/early evening when low amplitude s/wv trough moves
out of the Rockies. Propagation of any MCS late tonight and early
Wednesday is somewhat problematic, evident by differences in
model solutions. Largest component for propagation may in fact be
modest southwest low level jet, which would yield the need for
higher pops across southwest into central Oklahoma Wednesday
morning. MCS/shear parameters would yield the more southerly
trajectory as opposed to an eastward progression across far
northern Oklahoma. With this being a fairly large change from
previous solutions, we will go ahead and keep higher pops across
northern Oklahoma but increase pops across western and central
Oklahoma late tonight and the first half of Wednesday. After
Wednesday, still appears that there will be a relative lull in
thunderstorm activity until late in the weekend and early next
week.

Medium range models coming into better agreement on evolution of
western trough and tropical disturbance progressing around western
edge of subtropical ridge. This will likely result in scattered to
numerous showers and storms early to middle part of next week. Given
source region of lower and mid level moisture, heavy rain
will be a primary concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  95  73  92  72 /  10  30  30  10
Hobart OK         99  74  95  72 /  10  30  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  98  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK          100  69  90  70 /  20  70  40  10
Ponca City OK     96  73  88  71 /  20  50  50  10
Durant OK         93  73  94  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

25/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
441 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
441 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A thunderstorm complex moving across portions of eastern Oklahoma
may affect far eastern portions of north central and central
Oklahoma. If these storms occur, gusty winds, heavy rain, and
frequent lightning would be the main concerns.

Later today and tonight, there is a Slight Risk of severe storms
across northern Oklahoma with a Marginal Risk across portions of
western and central Oklahoma.

Location...
The Slight Risk is north of a line from Cheyenne and Watonga, to
Guthrie and Stillwater Oklahoma. The Marginal Risk is north of a
line from Hollis and Altus, to Lawton and Pauls Valley, to Ada
Oklahoma.

Timing...
Severe storms will be possible from 4 pm to 6 am, but the most
likely time will be after 9 pm.

Impacts...
Hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to 65 mph will be
possible with any of the late afternoon and early evening storms.
As the night progresses, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail
up to the size of quarters will become the main concerns. Heavy
rain that could lead to flooding and frequent lightning will also
be concerns.

Discussion...
Thunderstorms may be possible across parts of the area late this
afternoon and evening but will likely be dependent on what occurs
this morning. Isolated to scattered storms could develop late
this afternoon near a residual outflow boundary over the area from
the morning convection in eastern Oklahoma. If these storms
develop, large hail and strong winds will be the main concerns.

The greatest potential for storms will be late this evening and
overnight. Storms are expected to develop in the High Plains of
Colorado, western Kansas, and the Panhandles late this afternoon
and early evening. These storms are then expected to develop into
one or more thunderstorm complexes that moves across mainly
western and northern Oklahoma late this evening and overnight
into Wednesday morning.

Thunderstorms will remain possible into the daylight hours Wednesday
but the potential for severe storms is expected to diminish early
Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations late this
afternoon into early Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Storms will continue across portions of the area Wednesday with
rain chances ending Wednesday afternoon. Gusty winds could be
possible with the strongest storms but organized severe weather is
not expected.

Thunderstorm chances will return Sunday and continue into early
next week. Heavy rain will be a concern.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
801 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

OKZ019-025-026-030-031-121330-
Oklahoma OK-Logan OK-Pottawatomie OK-Seminole OK-Lincoln OK-
801 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northern Oklahoma...southeastern
Logan...northeastern Pottawatomie...northeastern Seminole and Lincoln
Counties Until 830 AM CDT...

AT 758 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
5 miles southwest of Meridian to 3 miles south of Stroud, moving
southwest at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Oklahoma City, Edmond, Guthrie, Chandler, Jones, Stroud,
Prague, Luther, Meeker, Davenport, Wellston, Carney, Arcadia, Sparks,
Warwick, Kendrick, Meridian, Fallis, Centerview and Downtown Edmond.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 137 and 152.
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 206 and 213.
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 136 and 182.

LAT...LON 3539 9661 3540 9661 3541 9662 3562 9764
      3589 9733 3578 9662 3542 9662 3540 9660
      3541 9658 3539 9654 3541 9654 3544 9657
      3545 9655 3543 9649 3546 9648 3546 9645
      3536 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 1258Z 28DEG 19KT 3581 9734 3569 9667

WR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
821 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

OKZ031-032-121400-
Hughes OK-Seminole OK-
821 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Hughes and eastern Seminole
Counties Until 900 AM CDT...

AT 820 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bearden, moving
south at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Seminole, Holdenville, Wewoka, Wetumka, Bowlegs, Dustin, Calvin,
Cromwell, Lamar, Sasakwa, Horntown, Yeager, Atwood, Spaulding and
Lima.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 203 and 207.

LAT...LON 3514 9601 3512 9601 3512 9603 3509 9606
      3506 9607 3505 9609 3494 9609 3490 9611
      3491 9641 3493 9641 3491 9642 3492 9647
      3491 9649 3497 9669 3540 9663 3536 9644
      3529 9644 3529 9598 3515 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 1320Z 1DEG 32KT 3532 9638

WR