Severe Thunderstorm Warning 334, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
604 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms continue to develop over extreme northwestern OK
this evening. Expect at least one or two small complexes of storms
to dive southward overnight, especially near WWR and CSM.
Additional storms will be possible near and just after sunrise
around OKC/OUN and LAW. Winds will remain south to southeasterly
around 10 to 15 kt. Expect increasing mid to high clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The outflow boundary from the earlier convective system now lies
from near Woodward to west of Cheyenne to near Crowell in Texas. A
few strong to severe storms may pop up along this line as it
progresses slowly to the west this afternoon. One cell in
particular developed quickly in Knox County, Texas.

A more organized area of storms, another MCS, is forecast to
develop in the general vicinity of where today's outflow boundary
intersects an old frontal boundary over southwest Kansas. These
storms have a good chance of reaching northwest Oklahoma late
tonight, then continuing southeast overnight and early Wednesday.
Additional storms may form farther east (along the front) in
central or south-central Kansas, then move into northern Oklahoma
early Wednesday morning. In summary, rain chances will be highest
in the northern parts of Oklahoma through midday Wednesday.

Rain chances then dwindle quickly as the upper-level ridge builds
back over the region Wednesday afternoon into the weekend.
Temperatures will rise back up to where they were before the
interruption from storms, and winds will be mainly from the south.

Late in the weekend or early next week, moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico and western Caribbean will arrive in north Texas and
Oklahoma. Around the same time, mid/upper-level moisture from now-
Hurricane "Bud" will arrive from the west. This is expected to
result in a wet week next week.

CmS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  88  71  95 /  10  30  10   0
Hobart OK         72  91  71  99 /  10  20  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  74  96  72  98 /   0  20  10   0
Gage OK           68  89  69  98 /  70  40  10   0
Ponca City OK     70  88  70  95 /  50  60  10   0
Durant OK         72  94  72  95 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

06/03/03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131745-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms will occur this afternoon
mainly across parts of central and southern Oklahoma.

Tonight, there is a Slight Risk of severe storms across
northwestern Oklahoma with a Marginal Risk across much of
Oklahoma and north Texas.

Location...
The Slight Risk area is northwest of a line from Sayre and
Watonga, to Enid and Blackwell, Oklahoma. The Marginal Risk area
is north of a line from Benjamin to Archer City, Texas.

Timing...
Severe storms are possible anytime this afternoon and tonight,
but the most likely time for severe storms will be after 9 pm
this evening.

Impacts...
Hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to 65 mph are
possible with any of the afternoon and early evening storms.

As the night progresses, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail
up to the size of quarters will become the main concerns.

Very heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and frequent lightning
are additional concerns with thunderstorms this afternoon
and tonight.

Discussion...
Isolated to scattered storms will occur this afternoon near a
residual outflow boundary central and southern Oklahoma as well
as north Texas. Large hail, strong winds, heavy rainfall, and
frequent lightning are the main concerns with these storms.

The greatest potential for storms will be late this evening
and overnight. Storms are expected to develop in the High Plains
of Colorado, western Kansas, and the Panhandles late this
afternoon and early evening. These storms are then expected to
develop into one or more thunderstorm complexes that will move
across mainly western and northern Oklahoma late this evening and
overnight into Wednesday morning.

Thunderstorms will remain possible into the daylight hours
Wednesday, but the potential for severe storms is expected to
diminish early Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations this
afternoon into early Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Storms will continue across portions of the area Wednesday with
rain chances ending Wednesday afternoon. Gusty winds could be
possible with the strongest storms but organized severe weather is
not expected on Wednesday.

Thunderstorm chances will return Sunday and continue into early
next week. Heavy rain will be a concern.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

MBS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
311 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

TXZ087-122045-
Knox TX-
311 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northern Knox County Until 345 PM
CDT...

AT 308 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Gilliland,
moving west at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Gilliland, Vera and Truscott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 9983 3383 9981 3382 9980 3380 9974
      3380 9970 3381 9970 3381 9966 3379 9960
      3378 9953 3375 9948 3358 9958 3371 9990
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 109DEG 21KT 3372 9966

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
450 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

OKZ004-005-122215-
Harper OK-Woods OK-
450 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Harper and
northwestern Woods Counties Until 515 PM CDT...

AT 449 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of
Buttermilk, moving southeast at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3700 9922 3683 9934 3695 9965 3700 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 299DEG 7KT 3704 9946

SIX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
610 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

OKZ004-122345-
Harper OK-
610 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Harper County Until
645 PM CDT...

AT 608 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Englewood,
moving east at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Rosston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9973 3681 9975 3681 10000 3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 270DEG 21KT 3699 9999

03