Severe Thunderstorm Warning 610, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
438 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The December 27-28 00 UTC TAF discussion for KOKC, KOUN, KSPS,
KLAW, KCSM, KWWR, and KPNC follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
Visibility and/or ceiling restrictions are expected to persist
the next few hours before improving from west to east as a line of
showers and thunderstorms move across the area this evening.

The line of thunderstorms will have the potential for gusty and
chaotic winds. Behind this line of thunderstorms, a transition to
VFR conditions is expected.

Stratus may wrap back around across west central and northwest
Oklahoma tomorrow morning into the afternoon. There is a chance
the stratus may impact terminals as far south as KOKC/KOUN.

Otherwise, winds will become gusty and veer to the west and then
northwest during the day tomorrow.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A large storm system will bring widespread rain, some heavy, and
scattered thunderstorms to Oklahoma and north Texas this evening,
ending late tonight (after midnight) in our southeastern
counties.

Short-term models are in good agreement that a line of
thunderstorms will develop over west Texas (roughly where there is
currently the appearance of a developing line), then move swiftly
east across our forecast area late this afternoon into this
evening. Prior to the arrival (and subsequent departure) of this
line, prolonged moderate to heavy rainfall will result in a few
areas of localized flooding. The flooding risk will mainly be
across south-central and central Oklahoma, along with immediately-
surrounding areas.

After the departure of the rain overnight, there will be a few
hours of clearing, followed by some cloud cover as the upper low
moves across northwest Oklahoma and Kansas. We can't rule out a
few showers in northwest Oklahoma, but the probability of
measurable precipitation is quite low.

Another upper-level system approaches Oklahoma and vicinity
Friday night and Saturday. This system may generate some snow
across much of Oklahoma, although with limited moisture and a
weakening upper-level circulation, amounts should be light. We
will, of course, need to keep an eye on this system in case
anything significant changes.

Other than the precipitation, the next seven days will generally
feature below-average temperatures, which will be a noticable
change compared to the recent mild weather.

CmS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  47  51  27  39 / 100   0   0   0
Hobart OK         40  49  26  40 / 100   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  46  54  30  43 / 100   0   0   0
Gage OK           33  42  21  36 /  90  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     48  52  25  38 / 100  10   0   0
Durant OK         52  61  32  46 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

26/10/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1123 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271730-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1123 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Strong to severe storms are possible across portions of western,
central, and southern Oklahoma, and all of western north Texas
this afternoon and evening.

Location...
The Slight Risk is along and south of a line from Hollis and
Mangum, to Lawton and Duncan, to Ardmore and Durant Oklahoma. This
includes all of western north Texas. A Marginal Risk is north of
the slight risk and south of a line from Woodward and Kingfisher,
to Guthrie and Chandler Oklahoma. This includes the Oklahoma City
Metro, Clinton, and Ada.

Timing...
The most likely time for severe storms will be from 2 pm to
Midnight, but some strong to marginally severe storms are possible
through early afternoon.

Impacts...
Hail up to the size of quarters.
Wind gusts up to 60 mph.
There is a low potential for a tornado across portions of north
Texas with a very low tornado potential further north across
southern and central Oklahoma.
Locally heavy rainfall and flooding.

Discussion...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the area
through tonight. Some of the storms through early this afternoon
could become strong to marginally severe with gusty winds, small
hail, and heavy rain the main concerns.

The highest potential for severe storms will be later this
afternoon and this evening across the risk areas. A squall line
could develop and move across the area during this time. Hail and
strong winds will be the main concerns. However, a tornado or two
can not be ruled out. The potential for severe storms will
decrease overnight but thunderstorms will remain possible through
early Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations this
afternoon and evening.

.Heavy Rain...
Locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern across portions of
Oklahoma and north Texas through early Thursday morning. Flooding
could occur in some of these locations, especially in poorly
drained low-lying areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Winter Weather...
There is a chance of light snow across most of Oklahoma, and
western north Texas early Saturday morning through Saturday
evening. Some locations across western and northwestern Oklahoma
could receive one to two inches of snowfall accumulation.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
319 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     FLOOD            LAWTON                  34.60N 98.42W
12/26/2018                   COMANCHE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VEHICLES STRANDED ON EAST GORE BLVD WEST OF FLOWER MOUND
            RD.

&&

ZWINK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
428 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

TXZ083-084-087-262300-
Foard TX-Knox TX-Hardeman TX-
428 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Foard...Knox and southwestern
Hardeman Counties Until 500 PM CST....

AT 428 PM CST, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
7 miles east of Paducah to 12 miles southwest of Truscott to near
Rochester, moving northeast at 50 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 10005 3424 10001 3423 10000 3430 9999
      3440 9978 3340 9948 3340 9999 3383 10000
      3384 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 238DEG 44KT 3400 10017 3366 10000 3330 9988

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
436 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

OKZ041>043-046-047-050-051-262315-
Love OK-Coal OK-Carter OK-Johnston OK-Pontotoc OK-Marshall OK-
Murray OK-
436 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Love...southwestern Coal...
Carter...Johnston...southern Pontotoc...Marshall and Murray Counties
Until 515 PM CST....

AT 430 PM CST, an area of showers will aid in bringing stronger
winds aloft down to the surface over the next hour across portions
of south central Oklahoma. Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph will be
possible from near Ada and Sulphur south to Ardmore, Madill and
Marietta.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3376 9719 3385 9717 3392 9721 3386 9726
      3388 9733 3382 9737 3383 9745 3392 9750
      3422 9748 3483 9668 3453 9631 3383 9671
      3387 9681 3385 9686 3396 9693 3395 9700
      3384 9703 3385 9709 3382 9705 3372 9710
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 238DEG 44KT 3425 9704

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
514 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE KNOX CITY         33.43N 99.81W
12/26/2018                   KNOX               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CARPORTS BLOWN OVER CARS.

&&

MAHALE

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