River Flood Warning 65, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
438 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The December 27-28 00 UTC TAF discussion for KOKC, KOUN, KSPS,
KLAW, KCSM, KWWR, and KPNC follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
Visibility and/or ceiling restrictions are expected to persist
the next few hours before improving from west to east as a line of
showers and thunderstorms move across the area this evening.

The line of thunderstorms will have the potential for gusty and
chaotic winds. Behind this line of thunderstorms, a transition to
VFR conditions is expected.

Stratus may wrap back around across west central and northwest
Oklahoma tomorrow morning into the afternoon. There is a chance
the stratus may impact terminals as far south as KOKC/KOUN.

Otherwise, winds will become gusty and veer to the west and then
northwest during the day tomorrow.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A large storm system will bring widespread rain, some heavy, and
scattered thunderstorms to Oklahoma and north Texas this evening,
ending late tonight (after midnight) in our southeastern
counties.

Short-term models are in good agreement that a line of
thunderstorms will develop over west Texas (roughly where there is
currently the appearance of a developing line), then move swiftly
east across our forecast area late this afternoon into this
evening. Prior to the arrival (and subsequent departure) of this
line, prolonged moderate to heavy rainfall will result in a few
areas of localized flooding. The flooding risk will mainly be
across south-central and central Oklahoma, along with immediately-
surrounding areas.

After the departure of the rain overnight, there will be a few
hours of clearing, followed by some cloud cover as the upper low
moves across northwest Oklahoma and Kansas. We can't rule out a
few showers in northwest Oklahoma, but the probability of
measurable precipitation is quite low.

Another upper-level system approaches Oklahoma and vicinity
Friday night and Saturday. This system may generate some snow
across much of Oklahoma, although with limited moisture and a
weakening upper-level circulation, amounts should be light. We
will, of course, need to keep an eye on this system in case
anything significant changes.

Other than the precipitation, the next seven days will generally
feature below-average temperatures, which will be a noticable
change compared to the recent mild weather.

CmS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  47  51  27  39 / 100   0   0   0
Hobart OK         40  49  26  40 / 100   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  46  54  30  43 / 100   0   0   0
Gage OK           33  42  21  36 /  90  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     48  52  25  38 / 100  10   0   0
Durant OK         52  61  32  46 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

26/10/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1123 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271730-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1123 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Strong to severe storms are possible across portions of western,
central, and southern Oklahoma, and all of western north Texas
this afternoon and evening.

Location...
The Slight Risk is along and south of a line from Hollis and
Mangum, to Lawton and Duncan, to Ardmore and Durant Oklahoma. This
includes all of western north Texas. A Marginal Risk is north of
the slight risk and south of a line from Woodward and Kingfisher,
to Guthrie and Chandler Oklahoma. This includes the Oklahoma City
Metro, Clinton, and Ada.

Timing...
The most likely time for severe storms will be from 2 pm to
Midnight, but some strong to marginally severe storms are possible
through early afternoon.

Impacts...
Hail up to the size of quarters.
Wind gusts up to 60 mph.
There is a low potential for a tornado across portions of north
Texas with a very low tornado potential further north across
southern and central Oklahoma.
Locally heavy rainfall and flooding.

Discussion...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the area
through tonight. Some of the storms through early this afternoon
could become strong to marginally severe with gusty winds, small
hail, and heavy rain the main concerns.

The highest potential for severe storms will be later this
afternoon and this evening across the risk areas. A squall line
could develop and move across the area during this time. Hail and
strong winds will be the main concerns. However, a tornado or two
can not be ruled out. The potential for severe storms will
decrease overnight but thunderstorms will remain possible through
early Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations this
afternoon and evening.

.Heavy Rain...
Locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern across portions of
Oklahoma and north Texas through early Thursday morning. Flooding
could occur in some of these locations, especially in poorly
drained low-lying areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Winter Weather...
There is a chance of light snow across most of Oklahoma, and
western north Texas early Saturday morning through Saturday
evening. Some locations across western and northwestern Oklahoma
could receive one to two inches of snowfall accumulation.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
828 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PURCELL                 35.01N 97.37W
12/26/2018                   MCCLAIN            OK   PUBLIC

            POWER OUTAGES REPORTED IN SOUTH PURCELL

&&

ZWINK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
855 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 S STERLING            34.66N 98.17W
12/26/2018  M71.00 MPH       COMANCHE           OK   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MAHALE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
901 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

OKZ013-020-026-030-031-270330-
Payne OK-Pottawatomie OK-Seminole OK-Lincoln OK-Noble OK-
901 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Payne...northeastern
Pottawatomie...northwestern Seminole...Lincoln and southern Noble
Counties Until 930 PM CST....

AT 900 PM CST, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
3 miles east of Lucien to near Tryon to near Shawnee, moving
northeast at 50 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3633 9703 3633 9692 3625 9692 3624 9682
      3616 9682 3616 9662 3539 9661 3541 9654
      3544 9657 3545 9655 3544 9652 3541 9652
      3516 9683 3594 9713 3612 9736 3616 9735
      3616 9741 3631 9746 3643 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 236DEG 43KT 3629 9740 3590 9695 3538 9688

..speg.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
904 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUGDEN                  34.08N 97.98W
12/26/2018                   JEFFERSON          OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROOF BLOWN OFF OF HOUSE. TIME IS RADAR ESTIMATE.

&&

ZWINK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
915 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW LAKESIDE CITY     33.82N 98.57W
12/26/2018                   ARCHER             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPT REPORTS 2 BARNS DESTROYED, A HOUSE WITH ALL
            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT BY DEBRIS, A BARN WRAPPED IN POWER
            LINES, AND 4 POWER POLES DOWN. TIME IS RADAR ESTIMATE.

&&

ZWINK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
925 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW STRATFORD         34.78N 96.97W
12/26/2018                   GARVIN             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS A TRAILER WITH THE ROOF PEELED BACK AND BARN
            DAMAGE.

&&

ZWINK