Severe Thunderstorm Warning 558, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
324 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front has been slowly moving through Oklahoma in response
to a shortwave trough moving through the Midwest. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to
develop along and south of this boundary across the southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Instability (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) suggests hail will be possible,
and large downdraft CAPE (>1000 J/kg) will favor damaging wind
gusts with the stronger, collapsing cores. Relatively high
precipitable water values (>1.7") will favor locally heavy
rainfall as well.

Late tonight/early Saturday morning, a decaying complex of
showers/storms may approach western Oklahoma. For Saturday
afternoon, slightly lower temperatures are expected for most
locations behind the weak boundary. The best chance for
showers/storms during the daytime hours would be confined within
zone of post-frontal elevated instability from near the Red River,
northwestward into western Oklahoma; however, this a low chance
across central Oklahoma with any potential remnants (e.g., MCV)
from the MCS.

For late Saturday into Sunday, a longwave trough with two
embedded shortwaves is forecast to dig into the Southern Plains.
By Saturday evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop in response to increasing isentropic ascent
and cyclonic vorticity advection ahead of the first shortwave
trough. Widespread showers/storms are expected Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Precipitable water values are forecast to be
quite high (>=2.0"), so heavy rainfall could lead to some
flooding. A Flood Watch may be necessary in this period.

By late Sunday, a second shortwave trough with an attendant cold
front is forecast to pass by the area. Additional showers/storm
may develop along this cold front. There is some uncertainty on
how much recovery will occur in the wake of the morning
convection, but the greatest chance will be across southeast
Oklahoma Sunday night. Increased mid-level winds and attendant
effective bulk shear would favor the potential for strong to
severe storms.

In the front's wake, seasonably cool and dry weather are expected
Monday and Tuesday. Both days have high temperatures forecast in
the upper

By the middle part of the week, the chance of showers/storms will
be modulated by the location of the mid-level ridge. There are
indications that MCS(s) may affect our area on the eastern
periphery of the ridge Tuesday and/or Wednesday night.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  87  70  86 /  10  30  80  70
Hobart OK         74  87  71  89 /  20  30  60  40
Wichita Falls TX  77  94  74  95 /  30  20  40  30
Gage OK           69  81  67  85 /  30  30  80  30
Ponca City OK     68  91  70  82 /  10  10  70  80
Durant OK         76  93  75  92 /  30  20  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ032-039>043-
     045>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

25/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
430 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-182130-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
430 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A few strong to marginally severe storms will be likely across the
southern half of Oklahoma and western north Texas through the
evenig hours. The main impacts will be strong, gusty winds and
hail.

Overnight, thunderstorms over the Texas Panhandle may move into
western Oklahoma.

.Heavy Rainfall..
Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms could cause localized flooding,
especially at any locations that have recently had significant
rainfall.

.Heat...
Heat index values of 100 to 107 degrees are expected this
afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for south central and
southeast Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday, and could linger
into Monday morning. The highest chance will be late Saturday into
Sunday. A few strong to severe storms are possible during this
period, although widespread or significant severe weather is
unlikely.

.Heavy Rainfall..
Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms could cause localized flooding,
especially at any locations that have recently had significant
rainfall.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale/30

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