Severe Thunderstorm Warning 551, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
324 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front has been slowly moving through Oklahoma in response
to a shortwave trough moving through the Midwest. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to
develop along and south of this boundary across the southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Instability (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) suggests hail will be possible,
and large downdraft CAPE (>1000 J/kg) will favor damaging wind
gusts with the stronger, collapsing cores. Relatively high
precipitable water values (>1.7") will favor locally heavy
rainfall as well.

Late tonight/early Saturday morning, a decaying complex of
showers/storms may approach western Oklahoma. For Saturday
afternoon, slightly lower temperatures are expected for most
locations behind the weak boundary. The best chance for
showers/storms during the daytime hours would be confined within
zone of post-frontal elevated instability from near the Red River,
northwestward into western Oklahoma; however, this a low chance
across central Oklahoma with any potential remnants (e.g., MCV)
from the MCS.

For late Saturday into Sunday, a longwave trough with two
embedded shortwaves is forecast to dig into the Southern Plains.
By Saturday evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop in response to increasing isentropic ascent
and cyclonic vorticity advection ahead of the first shortwave
trough. Widespread showers/storms are expected Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Precipitable water values are forecast to be
quite high (>=2.0"), so heavy rainfall could lead to some
flooding. A Flood Watch may be necessary in this period.

By late Sunday, a second shortwave trough with an attendant cold
front is forecast to pass by the area. Additional showers/storm
may develop along this cold front. There is some uncertainty on
how much recovery will occur in the wake of the morning
convection, but the greatest chance will be across southeast
Oklahoma Sunday night. Increased mid-level winds and attendant
effective bulk shear would favor the potential for strong to
severe storms.

In the front's wake, seasonably cool and dry weather are expected
Monday and Tuesday. Both days have high temperatures forecast in
the upper

By the middle part of the week, the chance of showers/storms will
be modulated by the location of the mid-level ridge. There are
indications that MCS(s) may affect our area on the eastern
periphery of the ridge Tuesday and/or Wednesday night.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  87  70  86 /  10  30  80  70
Hobart OK         74  87  71  89 /  20  30  60  40
Wichita Falls TX  77  94  74  95 /  30  20  40  30
Gage OK           69  81  67  85 /  30  30  80  30
Ponca City OK     68  91  70  82 /  10  10  70  80
Durant OK         76  93  75  92 /  30  20  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ032-039>043-
     045>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

25/10

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
257 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

OKZ021-172030-
Beckham OK-
257 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Beckham County Until
330 PM CDT....

AT 253 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Erick, moving west at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

LAT...LON 3520 10000 3517 9984 3503 9984 3503 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 95DEG 8KT 3511 9991

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
333 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

TXZ083-084-172100-
Foard TX-Hardeman TX-
333 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Foard and southern
Hardeman Counties Until 400 PM CDT....

AT 332 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Quanah to 9 miles east of Swearingen, moving south at 5 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

LAT...LON 3410 10005 3416 10003 3438 9963 3438 9960
      3441 9958 3442 9956 3414 9954 3383 10001
      3384 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 10DEG 5KT 3432 9965 3414 9998

..speg.