Severe Thunderstorm Warning 537, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
657 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong and severe thunderstorms will be scattered across Oklahoma
and north Texas through much of the night. It appears that the
greatest concentration of strong/severe storms will be over
central Oklahoma, affecting KOKC and KOUN and vicinity. A weak
cold front will pass through Oklahoma tomorrow, switching winds
around to the west, northwest, and north. Some low cloudiness is
expected to accompany the front, mainly over central and eastern
Oklahoma. While some showers or storms may accompany the front
tomorrow, guidance suggests the strongest storms will be this
evening and overnight. After the front passes, the chances of rain
will diminish.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
With the exception of far southeast Oklahoma, most of the widespread
areas of precipitation have dissipated this morning.
Destabilization will continue through the afternoon resulting in
weak to moderate instability. Initial storm develop may be across
northwest Oklahoma by mid afternoon as a frontal boundary
approaches. More numerous showers and storms are expected as
the initial storms move east and southeast.

Effective shear values around 25-30 kts and sufficient
instability will result in a few strong to severe storms. A rather
moist air mass remains in place, therefore locally heavy rainfall
will also be a concern. At this time, will keep higher rain
chances across north central/central Oklahoma this evening with a
a shift to the east and southeast overnight.

Height rises will occur later tonight into Wednesday as a mid-level
low over Kansas moves east. This will favor much lower rain
chances compared to Monday and today. Better rain chances
Wednesday into Wednesday night will be across southern Oklahoma
and western north Texas.

A shortwave trough will move southeast across the central Plains
Thursday into Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday
into Friday, but better chances appear to be north and east of
the area.

A strong trough will approach the central and southern Plains late
Saturday through Sunday. This will bring a better chance of
widespread showers and storms along with below average
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  87  71  92 /  80  10  10  20
Hobart OK         71  92  73  95 /  50   0  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  73  92  75  96 /  20   0  20  10
Gage OK           64  88  67  93 /  20   0  30  20
Ponca City OK     68  87  66  90 /  80  10  10  10
Durant OK         71  90  75  94 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

30/23/23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
736 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-160045-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
736 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through the evening
hours across portions of northern, central into southern Oklahoma.
The stronger storms may produce damaging wind gusts to 60 mph,
hail to the size of golf balls, and very heavy rainfall.
Thunderstorm intensity is expected to decrease by late evening.

.Heavy Rainfall and Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall amounts will occur with thunderstorms and
this could lead to flooding in some areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday, but
better chances will begin Thursday night and continue through
Monday. Severe storms are unlikely during this period.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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