Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1057 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Area of showers/storms continues to move across portions of the
fa. This activity has pushed an outflow boundary south across most
of the fa. There is uncertainty as to what will happen this
afternoon/evening in regards to additional storm development. The
biggest question will be how much recovery will be able to occur.
With dryline to west of the area and less cloud cover in western
portions of the fa leading to more heating, the highest chances
for storms now look to be across W/SW portions of the fa later
this afternoon. Have adjusted PoPs through tonight to show this.
However, if a larger part of the area is able to recover, higher
chances for storms would be possible further N/NE. Will continue
to monitor to see how things evolve and make any needed changes.
The storms this afternoon/evening could become severe with large
hail and damaging winds the main concerns.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 444 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A complex of thunderstorms will continue to dive south near and
east of the I-35 corridor through early this morning. This
complex will continue to weaken over central and east central OK
as the sun rises. A few showers and storms, however, will remain
possible until early this afternoon especially over northern, eastern
and southeastern OK. Later this afternoon, moderate instability
will develop along and west of the I-35 corridor. Surface
convergence is expected over north northwestern OK near a low and
the intersection of stalled frontal boundary, a diffuse dryline,
and outflow boundary. With steep lapse rates and sufficient deep
layer shear in place, initially expect some large hail before the
sun sets. Most trends suggest tonight's complex will dive south
very close to the I-35 corridor, with a damaging wind threat
possible over central OK, including the OKC metro, around 03-09Z.
The complex will dissipate towards Sat AM as it moves into the Red
River.

Saturday still appears dry, humid, and hot as a mid to upper ridge
moves over the Southern Plains. Slightly cooler conditions, but
still well above average, are expected Mon and Tue as the ridge
slowly shifts eastward. Shower and thunderstorm chances will also
return to northwestern and northern OK Mon and Tue with an upper
trough traversing the Rockies. Isolated storms will also be
possible along a dryline across western OK and western north TX
Tue afternoon and evening, and could make a run into portions of
central OK. There might be a chance for showers and storms across
extreme northern OK as a mid level shortwave trough tops the
ridge, but for now have kept the forecast dry since mid level
moisture appears limited. Hot conditions are expected by late
next week into next weekend, as significant positive height
anomalies move overhead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  71  96  70 / 100  20  10   0
Hobart OK         97  69 100  70 /  20  30   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  97  72 100  72 /  40  30   0   0
Gage OK           97  65 100  68 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     88  68  95  68 /  50  10  10   0
Durant OK         92  71  95  70 /  80  30  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

25/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
530 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
530 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and tonight across parts Oklahoma and western north Texas.

.Location...
The Slight Risk area is generally along and west of a line from
Enid to Stillwater to Holdenville and Durant. The Slight Risk
area also covers most of western north Texas. There is a Marginal
Risk that covers the rest of Oklahoma.

.Timing...
The most likely time for severe storms will be from 3 pm through
about midnight.

.Impacts...
Damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph and hail up to the size of
golf balls will be the main hazards.

Some of the storms today will produce locally heavy rainfall which
may result in some flooding.

.Discussion...
Scattered showers thunderstorms moving across northern and central
Oklahoma this morning are expected to gradually weaken through
9 to 10 am. A few storms may produce hail near the size of
quarters and gusty winds near 45 mph.

By mid afternoon, heating will result in moderate to strong
instability across a large part of Oklahoma and western north
Texas. The first thunderstorms are expected to develop across
northern and perhaps central Oklahoma by mid afternoon. Other
storms may develop near a dryline in the eastern Texas Panhandle.
Large hail and damaging winds will be likely with the storms that
form in the afternoon and early evening.

By early to mid evening, thunderstorms may organize into a
thunderstorms complex and move southward across central and
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.  As this occurs, the
main hazard will be damaging winds.  During the overnight hours,
most of the thunderstorms are expected to be confined to the
southern half of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel should
prepare for severe weather operations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Heat...
Triple digit heat is expected across the western third of Oklahoma
and western north Texas this weekend and again by the middle
of next week.

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms could move into western Oklahoma during the
evening hours Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms
are unlikely during this period.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1054 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018

OKZ013-019-020-251630-
Payne OK-Logan OK-Noble OK-
1054 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR western Payne...north central
Logan and southern Noble Counties Until 1130 AM CDT...

AT 1050 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest
of Lake Carl Blackwell, moving east at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Stillwater, Perry, Perkins, Glencoe, Mulhall, Orlando, Lake Carl
Blackwell and Lake Mcmurtry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 9748 3629 9731 3623 9682 3596 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 1550Z 283DEG 28KT 3618 9726

MAHALE

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