Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
444 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A complex of thunderstorms will continue to dive south near and
east of the I-35 corridor through early this morning. This
complex will continue to weaken over central and east central OK
as the sun rises. A few showers and storms, however, will remain
possible until early this afternoon especially over northern, eastern
and southeastern OK. Later this afternoon, moderate instability
will develop along and west of the I-35 corridor. Surface
convergence is expected over north northwestern OK near a low and
the intersection of stalled frontal boundary, a diffuse dryline,
and outflow boundary. With steep lapse rates and sufficient deep
layer shear in place, initially expect some large hail before the
sun sets. Most trends suggest tonight's complex will dive south
very close to the I-35 corridor, with a damaging wind threat
possible over central OK, including the OKC metro, around 03-09Z.
The complex will dissipate towards Sat AM as it moves into the Red
River.

Saturday still appears dry, humid, and hot as a mid to upper ridge
moves over the Southern Plains. Slightly cooler conditions, but
still well above average, are expected Mon and Tue as the ridge
slowly shifts eastward. Shower and thunderstorm chances will also
return to northwestern and northern OK Mon and Tue with an upper
trough traversing the Rockies. Isolated storms will also be
possible along a dryline across western OK and western north TX
Tue afternoon and evening, and could make a run into portions of
central OK. There might be a chance for showers and storms across
extreme northern OK as a mid level shortwave trough tops the
ridge, but for now have kept the forecast dry since mid level
moisture appears limited. Hot conditions are expected by late
next week into next weekend, as significant positive height
anomalies move overhead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  71  96  70 /  30  60  10   0
Hobart OK         98  69 100  70 /  40  30   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  96  72 100  72 /  20  30   0   0
Gage OK           97  65 100  68 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     92  68  95  68 /  30  30  10   0
Durant OK         91  71  95  70 /  20  50  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

06/03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
530 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
530 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and tonight across parts Oklahoma and western north Texas.

.Location...
The Slight Risk area is generally along and west of a line from
Enid to Stillwater to Holdenville and Durant. The Slight Risk
area also covers most of western north Texas. There is a Marginal
Risk that covers the rest of Oklahoma.

.Timing...
The most likely time for severe storms will be from 3 pm through
about midnight.

.Impacts...
Damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph and hail up to the size of
golf balls will be the main hazards.

Some of the storms today will produce locally heavy rainfall which
may result in some flooding.

.Discussion...
Scattered showers thunderstorms moving across northern and central
Oklahoma this morning are expected to gradually weaken through
9 to 10 am. A few storms may produce hail near the size of
quarters and gusty winds near 45 mph.

By mid afternoon, heating will result in moderate to strong
instability across a large part of Oklahoma and western north
Texas. The first thunderstorms are expected to develop across
northern and perhaps central Oklahoma by mid afternoon. Other
storms may develop near a dryline in the eastern Texas Panhandle.
Large hail and damaging winds will be likely with the storms that
form in the afternoon and early evening.

By early to mid evening, thunderstorms may organize into a
thunderstorms complex and move southward across central and
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.  As this occurs, the
main hazard will be damaging winds.  During the overnight hours,
most of the thunderstorms are expected to be confined to the
southern half of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel should
prepare for severe weather operations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Heat...
Triple digit heat is expected across the western third of Oklahoma
and western north Texas this weekend and again by the middle
of next week.

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms could move into western Oklahoma during the
evening hours Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms
are unlikely during this period.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
409 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018

OKZ007-008-012-013-251000-
Garfield OK-Kay OK-Grant OK-Noble OK-
409 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Garfield...southwestern Kay...
southeastern Grant and Noble Counties Until 500 AM CDT...

AT 404 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
4 miles southwest of Tonkawa to 7 miles southeast of Garber to 3
miles southeast of Waukomis to near Lahoma, moving southeast at 35
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3663 9705 3660 9704 3659 9706 3658 9701
      3625 9712 3624 9714 3620 9714 3617 9715
      3617 9810 3636 9809 3635 9804 3655 9774
      3680 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 0904Z 305DEG 31KT 3663 9734 3639 9745 3626 9784 3637
9809

SIX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
427 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018

OKZ006-251000-
Alfalfa OK-
427 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Alfalfa County Until 500
AM CDT...

AT 421 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lambert, moving
east at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 40 to 45 MPH...

LAT...LON 3646 9811 3658 9852 3684 9853 3684 9811
TIME...MOT...LOC 0921Z 282DEG 23KT 3670 9838

SIX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
443 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018

OKZ012-013-018>020-251015-
Garfield OK-Payne OK-Kingfisher OK-Logan OK-Noble OK-
443 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Garfield...western
Payne...Kingfisher...Logan and southern Noble Counties Until 515 AM
CDT...

AT 438 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
4 miles northeast of Lake Mcmurtry to 3 miles northwest of Mulhall to
4 miles east of Dover to 4 miles north of Loyal, moving south at 35
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3616 9696 3594 9710 3594 9714 3588 9714
      3575 9723 3573 9768 3574 9811 3612 9815
      3628 9792 3630 9748 3634 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 0938Z 342DEG 29KT 3621 9710 3611 9744 3601 9784 3604
9809

SIX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
452 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018

OKZ005-251015-
Woods OK-
452 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR eastern Woods County Until 515 AM
CDT...

AT 450 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Avard, moving southeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3700 9867 3695 9854 3657 9854 3650 9880
      3699 9903 3700 9899
TIME...MOT...LOC 0950Z 323DEG 18KT 3681 9884

SIX

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