Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Norman, OK

634 
WGUS74 KOUN 062304
FFSOUN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
604 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2018

OKC027-109-070100-
/O.CON.KOUN.FF.W.0050.000000T0000Z-180907T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oklahoma OK-Cleveland OK-
604 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTIES...

At 601 PM CDT, although the heaviest rain has ended, flash flooding 
will continue early this evening, especially across eastern sides 
of Moore.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Moore and areas near Stanley Draper Lake

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 9730 3527 9737 3527 9748 3536 9753
      3542 9737

$$

11

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
258 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Localized flooding/flash flooding from heavy rain showers continues
to be the focus.

Conditions are similar today to the previous few days, with
anomalous moisture (i.e., ~2.00 inches or just above at Norman and
Lamont 12 UTC soundings). Modest destabilization has resulted in
scattered to numerous heavy rain showers and a few thunderstorms.
The radar presentation matches the thermal/moisture profile with
low echo centroid and modest reflectivity values aloft. Radars
remain in Tropical Z-R to account for the anomalously moist
tropical environment and estimates along with gauge measurements
indicate two to three inches an hour with the more mature
convective cells.

We waited until the mesoscale picture became a little more clear to
issue the Flood Watch so we could keep it confined to a more focused
area, sacrificing some lead time some but providing a more
accurate picture with less false alarm area. There is a zone of
weak convergence from western north Texas through southwest
Oklahoma northeastward along the I-44 corridor. Activity should
decrease in coverage this evening and the Flood Watch goes until
0300 UTC / 10:00pm. Like previous days, there isn't much large
scale forcing, but subtle difficult to resolve perturbations aloft
and/or small scale low level convergence will keep some
convection going into the night, probably most likely near the Red
River and across north Texas.

Similar conditions are expected tomorrow, and we have mid range
chance to low likely category precipitation probabilities with
highest chances across the southeastern third of our forecast area.
This is aligned with a band of anomalous precipitable water values
and ahead of a sharpening shortwave trough that could provide enough
forcing for increased coverage. We are still quite moist with low
LCLs and deep warm cloud layers so these will continue to be
efficient rainfall producers and localized flooding/flash flooding
will again be possible.

This shortwave will shift the remnants of Gordon away from our area
Saturday. It will move as far west as Ozarks and should enhance
northeasterly flow some (~15 mph sustained across much of the area)
Friday through Saturday. Rain chances should decrease Saturday as
lower theta-e air mass moves in and precipitable water values fall.
From Sunday onward, mid-level heights rise and a drier/warmer
pattern will develop.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  69  79  68 /  60  50  50  40
Hobart OK         80  67  81  67 /  60  50  50  40
Wichita Falls TX  82  72  81  70 /  70  60  60  50
Gage OK           76  64  76  62 /  40  30  40  30
Ponca City OK     78  69  78  67 /  50  40  60  40
Durant OK         89  71  87  71 /  50  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ018-019-023>025-
     027>029-037>041-044>046-050.

TX...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

26/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071730-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely today into
tonight. Severe storms are not expected.

.Heavy Rain and Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible with heavy rain showers
and thunderstorms. Excessive rainfall may lead to flooding or
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
The chance for thunderstorms will continue across Oklahoma and
western north Texas through Saturday. The potential for severe
storms will remain low.

.Heavy Rain and Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible with showers and
thunderstorms. Excessive rainfall may lead to flooding or flash
flooding.

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