Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
337 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Heat advisory continues until 8 pm. Current heat index values are
in the 100 to 105 degree range across the area.

Two areas of convection ongoing this afternoon. Across far
southern middle TN, pva is feeding westward across that area.
Then, we are picking up some speed convergence to our north.
Both areas of convection are moving toward the west and southwest as
mid/upper level ridging stretches w-e and is centered to our
northwest. Look for generally 30 pops for tonight but I may make
an upward tweak at transmission time given the upcoming latest
radar trends. Otw, deep moisture not indicated, nor do we see much
upper divergence after 06z which would support more in the way of
overnight activity.

On Friday, convection should become more widespread as a frontal
boundary reaches the area. Should see activity to our north and
across northern middle TN in the morning prior to midday. Then,
the activity will work southward by afternoon. We are not
currently outlooked but I would not be surprised if a strong tstm
or two occurs over the south. Cape values come up to fairly high
values in the afternoon. Sfc heating will be key. Otw, shear
values are very low. Convection chances will remain into early
evening across the north. Further south, pops will linger a bit.

It is July and it is fair to question just how far south the drier
will reach. We do appear to pick up some 18z capping across the
north on Saturday. Moisture however, will still be hanging on
across southern areas. A slightly favorable cape to cap ratio will
still exist south. Thus, small pops will remain down there. In
fact, will keep low pops going across the far south through Sat
nt. Across the north though, pops will be completely out of the
forecast for Sat nt.

For the near term temps, the oppressive humidity will remain
through Friday afternoon. Temps at that time however, will cut
back a good 5 degrees or so. Then, a brief improvement will
begin. Upper 60s for lows Friday night. Saturdays highs will
feature upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. This is very
close to seasonal(perhaps a degree or two below) but it will feel
great compared to the hideousness we have been plagued with
recently.

In the extended forecast, I hope you did not expected the relief
to last, because its not going to. The upper high which
transitioned westward across the rockies, will now build back to
the east and will set up across the IL and IN area. Southeasterly
fetch will bring the humidity right back in along with increasing
temps. Low pops will be included every day but the upper high will
be the major factor versus any tropical waves or impulses that
attempt to undercut from the south and southeast. Temps will warm
right back into the lower 90s. The heat will then reach its zenith
for the 7 day forecast around mid week when the mid 90s return.

If you are interested in additional bad news, the 6 to 10 day and
the 8 to 14 day outlooks both indicate above normal temps. My
advice, enjoy Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...As surface temperatures heat up, a CU field is
starting to develop across Middle Tennessee, with scattered
convection expected later this afternoon and into the evening. So
we'll handle this for now with VCTS/CB remarks in the TAF's. Look
for some radiation fog mainly at CSV overnight, then an increased
rain chance tomorrow as a cold front pushes southward across the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      77  88  67  87  71 /  40  70  30  10  10
Clarksville    75  88  66  86  69 /  40  60  20   0   0
Crossville     72  83  66  80  66 /  40  70  30  40  20
Columbia       74  88  68  88  70 /  40  60  30  20  10
Lawrenceburg   73  88  68  87  70 /  40  60  30  30  20
Waverly        74  87  66  86  69 /  30  70  30   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Cheatham-Davidson-
Dickson-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Macon-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Williamson-
Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
500 AM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-061000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
500 AM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect again today for the Nashville Metro
area and locations to the west, including Clarksville, Dickson,
Waverly, and Centerville. Heat index values will reach 105 to 110 in
the advisory area. For most other locations in Middle Tennessee,
heat index values are expected to range from 100 to 105.

A couple of thunderstorms could become strong today, with gusty
winds, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are likely Friday, and some of the thunderstorms
could be strong with gusty winds and frequent lightning. Heavy
downpours may cause some localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters should report any severe weather or flooding to the
National Weather Service in Nashville.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1251 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE CHAPMANSBORO      36.32N  87.11W
07/05/2018                   CHEATHAM           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVEREL TREES DOWN OR SNAPPED AT THE TOPS ON SWEETHOME
            ROAD AND CHEATHAM DAM HIGHWAY. A FEW HOMES SUSTAINED
            VINYL SIDING DAMAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1800263

HURLEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
344 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

TNZ095-052115-
Giles TN-
344 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILES COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 344 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Pulaski, moving west at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pulaski, Ardmore, Elkton, Minor Hill, Goodspring, Frankewing and
Prospect.

LAT...LON 3500 8722 3506 8722 3510 8721 3512 8722
      3512 8720 3514 8721 3515 8720 3517 8722
      3520 8722 3520 8721 3523 8722 3528 8721
      3529 8723 3530 8721 3532 8721 3529 8683
      3499 8684
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 092DEG 30KT 3517 8690

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