Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
629 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Band of thunderstorms now spreading across western parts of the
Mid-State will continue eastward for the remainder of the
afternoon and evening, brining along the likelihood of isolated
severe weather. Damaging straight line winds, large hail and
possible tornadoes are expected, and you should listen for any
possible warnings that might be issued for your area for the rest
of the day and this evening.

After the storms clear out late this evening, you can expect
temperatures to start falling. Temperatures will fall during the
day tomorrow, under a cloudy sky, with readings dropping through
the 40s, and reaching the upper 30s most areas by 00z/Wed.

Looks like temperatures will cool sufficiently Tuesday night and
early Wednesday to allow for at least a brief period of wet snow,
especially along the favored areas of the Highland Rim and
Cumberland Plateau. A Winter Weather Advisory may need to be
issued for some parts of the Mid-State later tonight or tomorrow.
Right now, it looks like the Highland Rim could pick up a quick
inch or so, with mainly just trace amounts elsewhere.

Just like our last quickie snow event, temperatures will warm
quickly under a March sun on Wednesday, as the clouds clear, with
highs forecast to range from the lower 40s east to the lower 50s
west. So, any snow that falls will be here and gone in a hurry.

Thursday still looks dry. However, after that, it looks like an
unsettled period of weather from Friday on through early next
week. Doesn't look like much of any chance for thunder until,
perhaps, Sunday and Monday, when CAPEs increase just south of a
stalled front near the KY/TN line.

Temperatures will be mild throughout the extended period, with
highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s most areas from Friday through
next Monday. Lows will be mainly in the 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Area of showers and thunderstorms have cleared CKV, BNA, and MQY
but will continue to impact CSV through the early evening hours.
Winds will be a little variable behind the frontal passage, but
overall expect a westerly flow to become more northwesterly
overnight and early tomorrow. Low CIGS will hang around through
the TAF period and some light precip is expected when the winds
shift to the northwest.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
507 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-201000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
507 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The development of severe thunderstorms is expected by the early
afternoon hours across western portions of Middle Tennessee. The
potential for development of severe thunderstorms will spread
eastward into central portions of Middle Tennessee as the
afternoon hours progress. The potential for severe thunderstorms
will continue across eastern portions of Middle Tennessee
including the Cumberland Plateau Region through the mid evening
hours. Main threats from severe thunderstorms that do develop
will be straight line damaging winds, large hail, and isolated
strong tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon into the mid
evening hours tonight.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds >50 mph (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Powerlines Down

31

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
231 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

TNZ005-191945-
Stewart TN-
231 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN STEWART COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM CDT...

At 230 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Dover, moving northeast at 65 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Land Between The Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If near Land Between the Lakes, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8764 3650 8804
      3652 8804 3656 8803 3664 8806 3666 8807
      3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 221DEG 59KT 3661 8797

Whitehead

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
552 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

TNZ094-095-192315-
Lawrence TN-Giles TN-
552 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GILES COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 551 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lexington, or 15 miles south of Lawrenceburg, moving east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Loretto, St. Joseph, Minor Hill, Goodspring and Prospect.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3500 8749 3509 8750 3518 8703 3499 8695
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 259DEG 43KT 3502 8739

Whitehead