Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Nashville, TN

574 
WWUS54 KOHX 311841
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1241 PM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

TNC083-161-311900-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0175.000000T0000Z-181231T1900Z/
Stewart TN-Houston TN-
1241 PM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST
FOR STEWART AND NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES...

At 1240 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 9 miles west of Big Rock to 9 miles southeast of 
Paris Landing State Park, moving east at 50 mph. Some weak rotation 
was indicated over Land Between the Lakes.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Big Rock, Land Between The Lakes,
Houston County Airport and Indian Mound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8764 3627 8772
      3627 8795 3630 8795 3634 8797 3645 8806
      3647 8805 3649 8806 3653 8803 3660 8804
      3665 8807 3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 259DEG 43KT 3661 8793 3632 8799 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1221 PM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds have started to pick up around Middle TN this morning as the
surface pressure gradient tightens. The 12Z OHX RAOB would
suggest southerly sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts as high
as 45 mph will be possible as we get into the late morning and
early afternoon hours, so the Wind Advisory will continue as
planned.

Of course, the bigger questions will revolve around how intense
this afternoon's storms will become. The same sounding from OHX
might have experienced some wet-bulbing contamination, so the 200
J/Kg of MUCAPE is a little suspicious, but the wind profile is
likely very accurate. Already calculating 600 m2/s2 O-3km SRH
with 60+ kts of deep layer shear.

I talked yesterday about this current "dry slot" and its effects
on the eventual intensity of this afternoon's storms -- nothing
has changed in that regards. If we can see some sun prior to the
arrival of the line, we could see more widespread strong to
severe storms. However, showers continue to stream into Middle TN
this morning and while scattered, they are likely to help keep
instability very low. Latest GOES-East imagery is showing only a
few breaks in the clouds over northern and central MS (which is
the most likely air mass we'll see prior to storms developing), so
storms this afternoon will very likely need to rely on advected
instability just ahead of what is expected be a broken QLCS. This
should keep the strong to severe storms in more of the 'isolated'
category and out of 'widespread'. This is no reason to let our
guard down, however. Even without thunderstorms producing 60+ mph
winds, today's pressure gradient winds may very well be enough to
break branches and make a mess of things, especially in areas that
got soaked from last night's rains, so please remain weather
aware throughout the day.

Models continue to be very consistent with timing of the QLCS,
too. West to east, it's looking like approaching the TN River
12-1 pm, I-65 corridor in the 2-4 pm range and off the Plateau by
6-7 pm. While some trailing stratiform rain isn't out of the
question until 8-9 pm, maybe a little later on the Plateau, it
does look like things should be calm for tonight's NYE festivities
around most, if not all of Middle TN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Line of convection is currently making its way
across West Tennessee, with strong to severe storms expected in
Middle Tennessee during the afternoon. Used the latest HRRR to
time the squall line at each of our terminals. Storms should
weaken somewhat by the time they reach CSV this evening. Look for
MVFR/IFR clouds for most of the TAF period as significant low-
level moisture stays around even after the cold fropa later
tonight. Winds will remain strong throughout the afternoon, but
should begin to weaken after 00Z. There is also significant LLWS
owing to an unusually strong 850 mb jet, but the surface winds are
strong enough that LLWS criteria aren't being met for inclusion in
the TAF's.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
506 AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-011115-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
506 AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across Middle
Tennessee this afternoon and evening. A line of thunderstorms,
some potentially strong or severe, is expected to form across west
Tennessee and move across our area in the afternoon into early
evening. Damaging straight line winds will be the main threat with
this line of storms, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, especially across
northwestern Middle Tennessee.

In addition to the storms, a wind advisory is in effect today
from 9 AM until 6 PM. Strong south winds will develop late this
morning with sustained winds between 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to
45 mph this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report any thunderstorm or non thunderstorm wind damage to
the NWS Nashville office.

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1222 PM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

TNZ005-006-023-024-311900-
Stewart TN-Humphreys TN-Montgomery TN-Houston TN-
1222 PM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...
STEWART...HOUSTON AND NORTHWESTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM
CST...

At 1221 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles east of Murray to near Bruceton.
Movement was east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Waverly, Camden, Dover, Erin, New Johnsonville, Tennessee Ridge, Big
Rock, Cumberland City, Land Between The Lakes, Houston County Airport
and Indian Mound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8763 3605 8767
      3601 8800 3605 8799 3613 8792 3617 8792
      3622 8795 3626 8794 3631 8796 3645 8806
      3649 8806 3652 8804 3656 8803 3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 251DEG 50KT 3659 8814 3605 8831

13