River Flood Advisory 92, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
158 PM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms are moving across Middle TN at forecast
time. While the Tornado Watch that has been issued until 7 pm this
evening is admittedly a low-end threat, the straight-line wind
damage threat is considerable. Several places in West TN, NW
Middle TN and southern KY have seen trees fall over the last hour
or two. Between the winds from the line of thunderstorms and the
pressure gradient winds ahead of the line, more trees can be
expected to fall over the next several hours. Of note, between
last night's rainfall and today's quick hitting 1-2 inches,
localized flooding could also become a concern this afternoon as
creeks and small rivers swell. Please use extreme caution and
remember to Turn Around Don't Drown if you encounter water running
over area roadways.

The severe threat will diminish late this afternoon as the line of
thunderstorms outruns any available instability. Latest MUCAPE
numbers are already extremely small according to the latest RAP
data. A tongue of 250 J/Kg has reached the I-40 corridor and only
100 J/Kg of surface based CAPE has poked into Wayne County. While
shear numbers continue to be very strong, low CAPE and meager
lapse rates will likely combine to reduce any significant weather
threat east of I-65. Pressure gradient winds may end up being the
bigger culprit in breaking limbs and branches.

Stratiform rain is expected to linger for a couple of hours once
the line of thunderstorms moves through any given area in the
mid-state. This will very likely lead to dry conditions for any
NYE celebrations tonight. Temperatures at midnight should be
around 50 degrees.

After a dry Tuesday, yet another weather system will move into the
region for Wednesday through Friday. The good news is both the GFS
and Euro have had multiple runs now with temperatures far enough
above freezing to remove any mention of wintry weather. Rains
should clip the southern half of the mid-state late in the day
Wednesday, with coverage increasing Wednesday night and Thursday.
Backside rains will linger into Thursday night as the upper low
traverses the region.

It still looks like we should have a dry weekend ahead with
temperatures around normal with our next chance of rain towards
the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Line of convection is currently making its way
across West Tennessee, with strong to severe storms expected in
Middle Tennessee during the afternoon. Used the latest HRRR to
time the squall line at each of our terminals. Storms should
weaken somewhat by the time they reach CSV this evening. Look for
MVFR/IFR clouds for most of the TAF period as significant low-
level moisture stays around even after the cold fropa later
tonight. Winds will remain strong throughout the afternoon, but
should begin to weaken after 00Z. There is also significant LLWS
owing to an unusually strong 850 mb jet, but the surface winds are
strong enough that LLWS criteria aren't being met for inclusion in
the TAF's.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      44  52  36  47  38 /  40  10  10  30  70
Clarksville    40  47  34  45  35 /  20  10  10  20  50
Crossville     47  53  36  48  39 / 100  10  10  30  70
Columbia       45  52  36  45  37 /  50  10  10  50  80
Lawrenceburg   46  53  36  46  38 /  60  10  10  50  80
Waverly        41  48  34  44  35 /  20  10  10  30  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
506 AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-011115-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
506 AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across Middle
Tennessee this afternoon and evening. A line of thunderstorms,
some potentially strong or severe, is expected to form across west
Tennessee and move across our area in the afternoon into early
evening. Damaging straight line winds will be the main threat with
this line of storms, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, especially across
northwestern Middle Tennessee.

In addition to the storms, a wind advisory is in effect today
from 9 AM until 6 PM. Strong south winds will develop late this
morning with sustained winds between 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to
45 mph this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report any thunderstorm or non thunderstorm wind damage to
the NWS Nashville office.

10

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>