Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
614 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

An upper level ridge remained in place over the central
CONUS today.  Locally, isolated showers and storms continued to
diminish as they drifted across northeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa late this morning.  It was another hot day as temperatures
climbed to around 10 degrees above normal, reaching the low to mid
90s across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.  A few areas of
convection were beginning to bubble around 3pm this afternoon
from northwest Iowa through south-central Nebraska.

More showers and storms will continue to develop along an old
outflow boundary from an MCS that moved through Minnesota early this
morning.  CAMs continue to depict storms popping up across central
Iowa shortly before 00Z this evening, and gradually develop west
along the boundary into eastern Nebraska. Storms will then surge
southeast, reaching the northern Missouri border after midnight. The
SPC has placed us in a Slight Risk for severe storms this evening.
Abundant low level moisture will help produce around 4000 J/kg of
CAPE across the region.  While this large amount of instability will
be enough to create intense updrafts, capable of producing some
large hail and strong winds, shear will be a limiting factor these
storms.  With only 20 to 35 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, it seems as
though storms may struggle to stay organized, especially in eastern
Nebraska.

Additional showers and storms will develop across west-central
portions of Nebraska and Kansas overnight as an upper level
disturbance tracks along the ridge. Supported by the low level jet,
this convection will likely bring lingering precipitation to the
forecast area through Thursday morning. There may be a brief lull in
convective activity late morning/early Thursday afternoon before
showers and storms are kicked off once again around 00Z Friday. For
now we will remain in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. While the
bulk shear may be slightly better, up to 40 kts, instability is less
impressive.  Relief from the heat will come Thursday with highs only
in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Showers and storms will move out of the region Friday morning,
allowing afternoon temperatures to climb back towards 90.  Yet
another weak disturbance will track along the ridge Friday night,
into Saturday morning, followed by another ripple in the upper level
flow Saturday night. Temperatures over the weekend will remain in
the upper 80s and lower 90s.  The ridge across the nation's
midsection will finally be broken down early next week, as a large
low pressure system pushes into western Canada.  While models
diverge on solutions in regards to precipitation, they do agree that
a cold front associated with this system will bring temperatures
back down into the mid 80s through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through
eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this evening. Storms may
contain strong winds and large hail. Precipitation coverage will
gradually diminish through Thursday morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected with light southerly winds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
349 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-071100-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
349 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible tonight. The
primary hazards will be damaging winds,large hail, lightning and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Wednesday

On and off thunderstorm chances will continue into early next
week with isolated severe weather possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE
758 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

NEZ018-032-033-070145-
Stanton NE-Cuming NE-Wayne NE-
758 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WAYNE...NORTHWESTERN
CUMING AND NORTHEASTERN STANTON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 758 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Winside, or 12 miles northeast of Norfolk, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wayne, Wisner, Winside, Pilger, Hoskins and 8 Miles South Of Wayne.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4202 9730 4220 9730 4225 9685 4198 9685
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 269DEG 13KT 4211 9721

Heinlein