Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
614 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

An upper level ridge remained in place over the central
CONUS today.  Locally, isolated showers and storms continued to
diminish as they drifted across northeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa late this morning.  It was another hot day as temperatures
climbed to around 10 degrees above normal, reaching the low to mid
90s across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.  A few areas of
convection were beginning to bubble around 3pm this afternoon
from northwest Iowa through south-central Nebraska.

More showers and storms will continue to develop along an old
outflow boundary from an MCS that moved through Minnesota early this
morning.  CAMs continue to depict storms popping up across central
Iowa shortly before 00Z this evening, and gradually develop west
along the boundary into eastern Nebraska. Storms will then surge
southeast, reaching the northern Missouri border after midnight. The
SPC has placed us in a Slight Risk for severe storms this evening.
Abundant low level moisture will help produce around 4000 J/kg of
CAPE across the region.  While this large amount of instability will
be enough to create intense updrafts, capable of producing some
large hail and strong winds, shear will be a limiting factor these
storms.  With only 20 to 35 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, it seems as
though storms may struggle to stay organized, especially in eastern
Nebraska.

Additional showers and storms will develop across west-central
portions of Nebraska and Kansas overnight as an upper level
disturbance tracks along the ridge. Supported by the low level jet,
this convection will likely bring lingering precipitation to the
forecast area through Thursday morning. There may be a brief lull in
convective activity late morning/early Thursday afternoon before
showers and storms are kicked off once again around 00Z Friday. For
now we will remain in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. While the
bulk shear may be slightly better, up to 40 kts, instability is less
impressive.  Relief from the heat will come Thursday with highs only
in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Showers and storms will move out of the region Friday morning,
allowing afternoon temperatures to climb back towards 90.  Yet
another weak disturbance will track along the ridge Friday night,
into Saturday morning, followed by another ripple in the upper level
flow Saturday night. Temperatures over the weekend will remain in
the upper 80s and lower 90s.  The ridge across the nation's
midsection will finally be broken down early next week, as a large
low pressure system pushes into western Canada.  While models
diverge on solutions in regards to precipitation, they do agree that
a cold front associated with this system will bring temperatures
back down into the mid 80s through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through
eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this evening. Storms may
contain strong winds and large hail. Precipitation coverage will
gradually diminish through Thursday morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected with light southerly winds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
349 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-071100-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
349 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible tonight. The
primary hazards will be damaging winds,large hail, lightning and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Wednesday

On and off thunderstorm chances will continue into early next
week with isolated severe weather possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
652 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     SNYDER                  41.70N 96.78W
06/06/2018                   DODGE              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DISTINCT BRIEF FUNNEL. LOTS OF DUST BEING
            KICKED UP.

&&

CZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
658 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             2 E SNYDER              41.71N 96.74W
06/06/2018  M1.75 INCH       DODGE              NE   PUBLIC

&&

HD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE
705 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

NEZ044-050>052-070045-
Saunders NE-Butler NE-Douglas NE-Dodge NE-
705 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DODGE...NORTHWESTERN
DOUGLAS...CENTRAL BUTLER AND CENTRAL SAUNDERS COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

At 704 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong outflow along
a line extending from Nickerson to near North Bend to near Bellwood.
Movement was south at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this outflow.

Locations impacted include...
Fremont, Wahoo, David City, Valley, Cedar Bluffs, Mead, Bellwood,
Rising City, and Brainard.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4138 9730 4138 9715 4142 9700 4140 9677
      4153 9644 4148 9643 4144 9637 4144 9633
      4139 9633 4139 9627 4134 9623 4114 9671
      4117 9732
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 350DEG 10KT 4152 9646 4140 9677 4141 9719

Heinlein

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
709 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             8 NNW CLARKSON          41.83N 97.17W
06/06/2018  M1.75 INCH       STANTON            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

HD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE
711 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

IAZ056-070100-
Shelby IA-
711 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SHELBY COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM CDT...

At 710 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Irwin, or 9 miles northwest of Audubon, moving south at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Harlan, Irwin, Defiance, Kirkman, Prairie Rose State Park and Elk
Horn Creek Recreation Area.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Iowa.

LAT...LON 4158 9531 4186 9538 4186 9509 4160 9509
      4160 9504 4156 9504
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 343DEG 24KT 4178 9510

Thies

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