Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
715 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Main forecast problem is severe weather overnight.

Closed upper low is forecast to move southeast into the Mid
Mississippi Valley tonight. Airmass is unstable south of a
northwest-southeast warm front. Latest ML CAPE values were between
1000 to 1500 J/Kg. A north-south oriented surface trough over
north central Nebraska is forecast to move slowly eastward during
the evening. 0-6 Km bulk shear at 20Z is 35 to 50 knots over
eastern Nebraska.

Believe the scenario will be isolated storms, most likely
Supercells, to occur in northeast Nebraska during the early
evening. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado is possible.

Then later on this evening, a complex of severe thunderstorms with
damaging wind threat is expected to develop over northeast
Nebraska after 03Z and move southeast across eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa. HRRR model forecasts that the complex will be
through eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa by 11 to 12Z.

After this complex moves through, dry weather is forecast through
Saturday as high pressure moves in.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Below normal temperatures, with highs in the lower 80s is
forecast. Another chance of thunderstorms is on Sunday night into
Monday morning as a weak cold front moves southeast. This may only
affect western portions of our CWA. The next system with more
widespread thunderstorm activity will be next Wednesday as another
cold front moves southeast in northwest upper flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 715 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Main aviation concern during the TAF period is the coverage and
evolution of strong to severe thunderstorms that currently are
ongoing northwest of KOFK. Isolated convection is expected to
congeal into linear cluster of severe storms and then spread
southeast across eastern Nebraska late evening and overnight. Timing
into KOFK around 03z, with potential impact through 07z.  Right now,
looks like storms will not arrive in vicinity of KOMA until 07-08z,
and will persist through 10-11 UTC.  Timing into Lincoln 08-09z,
with impact through 12z. Ceilings with storms will drop to low
VFR or high end MVFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Fortin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
655 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-191400-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
655 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

Severe thunderstorms will continue moving southeast across
northeast Nebraska this evening. Isolated tornadoes, large hail
and damaging thunderstorms are possible. This activity is expected
to continue moving southeast into east central Nebraska later
tonightwhere damaging thunderstorm winds and large hail will be
the primary hazards. Locally heavy rainfall may also accompany
the severe storms.

Minor flooding will continue on the Missouri River from Nebraska
City downstream to Rulo.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Wednesday

Isolated thunderstorms may linger into Thursday morning in eastern
parts of the area, then on and off again chances remain for Sunday
through Tuesday.

Minor flooding will continue along the Missouri River from
Nebraska City downstream to Rulo.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed across portions of northeast
Nebraska this evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
900 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WNW COLERIDGE         42.53N 97.30W
07/18/2018                   CEDAR              NE   PUBLIC

            WATER FLOWING OVER COUNTY ROADS 561 AND 876.
            3" OF RAIN .

0815 PM     HAIL             6 WNW COLERIDGE         42.53N 97.31W
07/18/2018  E1.00 INCH       CEDAR              NE   PUBLIC

&&

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