Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
302 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Convection is rather limited early this afternoon, although the
stalled surface boundary is still in place across the region,
stretching from central IA into east central NE then arcing down
towards northwest KS at 19Z. Potential for heavy rain will be the
main forecast concern through the period.

Another round of storms is expected to move into the area tonight
as the next shortwave trough, currently coming out of the central
Rockies, ejects out across the central plains. Precipitable water
remains high and the potential for heavy rain will continue for
the area tonight into Thursday as the upper low over the northern
Rockies moves into the region. SREF shows weak flow spreading over
the region with the upper system resulting in slow storm motion
and the possiblity of prolonged heavy rain.

Some areas around Omaha into parts of west central and southwest
Iowa received significant rains during the past 24 hours with
reports of 3 to 5 inches and saturated or near saturated ground.
More heavy rain will be possible tonight so a flash flood watch
has been issued for areas around Omaha arcing down to southwest
of Lincoln in southeast Nebraska along the stalled frontal
boundary. Storms are expected to develop west and south of the
area during the late afternoon then spread north and east during
the evening and overnight hours.

This wet pattern is expected to move east of the area on Friday
with cooler and less humid conditions spreading into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

The forecast doesn't stay dry for long however, as another upper
trough begins to drop into the plains region by Saturday with a
reenforcing trough coming in by Monday. These two system will
bring the chance of more storms to the region for the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Satl imagery and sfc obs were showing MVFR cigs over ERN NE were
gradually breaking. KOMA and KLNK have already gone VFR. However,
KOFK is still MVFR and believe it will remain so the the rest of
this aftn. Next round of TSRA moves into the area later this
evening. Some +TSRA may become severe in nature and be
accompanied by prolonged period of hvy rainfall into early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for NEZ044-045-051>053-065>068-078-088-089.

IA...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...DEE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
348 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-201100-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
348 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across much of
eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this evening and tonight.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary hazards.
Locally heavy rain will also be possible, and some isolated
flooding could occur if storms redevelop over areas that received
3 to 5 inches of rain last night and early this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Tuesday

Thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast Wednesday night
into Thursday night. Occasional periods of heavy rain are
possible. Thunderstorm chances return to part of the area Saturday
and Saturday nigh and continue into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation may be needed for parts of the area this
evening.

Fobert

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