Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
304 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Thursday)...A short-wave is moving
across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon/evening. Airmass
remains marginally unstable with MLCAPEs at 2000-2500. Water vapor
and model soundings show mid-level dry air which is enhancing
downdraft strength this afternoon. Ongoing convection is producing
strong to severe storms. The main threat is strong winds but with
a fairly high WBZ and marginal hail CAPE of 500 J/Kg, hail up to
quarter size hail is possible.  Some broad shear in place with
0-6km shear of 30-35kts, but low-levels remain limited.

Southern half of the area has PWs near 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall is expected. Will need to watch for the potential of any
training of storms for localized flash flooding.

The short wave should exit the region this evening for
decreasing convection across the area. On Thursday...a frontal
boundary will be over the region with another short wave
approaching the area. This will allow scattered showers and
thunderstorms to form across the Southern Appalachian Region once
again by the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Wednesday)...Will remain in an
unsettle weather pattern throughout the extended.  For the upper
levels...the main weather feature through the period will be an
upper trough dropping into the eastern U.S. with a cut off low
developing and rotating through the Ohio Valley during the weekend.
Closer to the surface...an old and weakening frontal boundary will
be meandering around the TN/GA border area through the end of the
work week and into the weekend.  A couple of weak impulses will ride
along this boundary and this will be the focus of thunderstorms
activity through the first half of the extended.  Timing of the
impulses difficult at this time but diurnal heating will aid in
thunderstorms development and allow for an increased chance of
afternoon/early evening convection.  Around the Monday/Tuesday time
frame...the upper low will be moving east and its effect over the
area diminishing.  As a result...the chance of showers and
thunderstorms will decrease across the area.  By Wednesday...models
in poor agreement but there are indications a short wave will move
through...possibly to our north...once again increasing the chance
of convection.  Temperatures should remain fairly seasonal
throughout the extended period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  87  71  85 /  50  60  50  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  86  69  84 /  60  30  30  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  87  68  84 /  50  40  30  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  83  66  83 /  60  30  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

DH/MJB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
310 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-091915-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
310 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 /210 PM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Ongoing thunderstorms will march across the forecast area this
afternoon and evening. A few storms will become strong with a few
severe storms possible. The main threat will be damaging winds.
Also, heavy rains could cause brief flash flooding in a few
places.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed in a few locations this afternoon,
otherwise spotter activation is not anticipated.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
325 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DANDRIDGE               36.02N 83.42W
08/08/2018                   JEFFERSON          TN   911 CALL CENTER

            FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

PWARREN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
333 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

NCZ060-061-082015-
Clay NC-Cherokee NC-
333 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHEROKEE AND NORTHWESTERN
CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 333 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Murphy, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andrews, Murphy, Tusquitee, Topton, Marble and Unaka.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 8419 3525 8415 3525 8409 3529 8403
      3527 8401 3524 8401 3522 8397 3526 8384
      3524 8374 3526 8371 3523 8369 3520 8373
      3519 8371 3516 8374 3515 8373 3516 8365
      3514 8366 3514 8364 3507 8364 3506 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 248DEG 17KT 3515 8409

Moulton

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
344 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 WNW ALCOA            35.85N 84.14W
08/08/2018                   BLOUNT             TN   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN.

&&

PWARREN