Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
304 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Thursday)...A short-wave is moving
across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon/evening. Airmass
remains marginally unstable with MLCAPEs at 2000-2500. Water vapor
and model soundings show mid-level dry air which is enhancing
downdraft strength this afternoon. Ongoing convection is producing
strong to severe storms. The main threat is strong winds but with
a fairly high WBZ and marginal hail CAPE of 500 J/Kg, hail up to
quarter size hail is possible.  Some broad shear in place with
0-6km shear of 30-35kts, but low-levels remain limited.

Southern half of the area has PWs near 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall is expected. Will need to watch for the potential of any
training of storms for localized flash flooding.

The short wave should exit the region this evening for
decreasing convection across the area. On Thursday...a frontal
boundary will be over the region with another short wave
approaching the area. This will allow scattered showers and
thunderstorms to form across the Southern Appalachian Region once
again by the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Wednesday)...Will remain in an
unsettle weather pattern throughout the extended.  For the upper
levels...the main weather feature through the period will be an
upper trough dropping into the eastern U.S. with a cut off low
developing and rotating through the Ohio Valley during the weekend.
Closer to the surface...an old and weakening frontal boundary will
be meandering around the TN/GA border area through the end of the
work week and into the weekend.  A couple of weak impulses will ride
along this boundary and this will be the focus of thunderstorms
activity through the first half of the extended.  Timing of the
impulses difficult at this time but diurnal heating will aid in
thunderstorms development and allow for an increased chance of
afternoon/early evening convection.  Around the Monday/Tuesday time
frame...the upper low will be moving east and its effect over the
area diminishing.  As a result...the chance of showers and
thunderstorms will decrease across the area.  By Wednesday...models
in poor agreement but there are indications a short wave will move
through...possibly to our north...once again increasing the chance
of convection.  Temperatures should remain fairly seasonal
throughout the extended period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  87  71  85 /  50  60  50  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  86  69  84 /  60  30  30  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  87  68  84 /  50  40  30  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  83  66  83 /  60  30  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

DH/MJB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
520 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-090930-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
520 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 /420 AM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and storms are expected to march across the forecast area
this afternoon. Storms may get strong with a few severe storms
possible, with the threat of damaging winds. Also, heavy rains
could cause brief flash flooding in a few places.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed in a few locations this afternoon,
otherwise spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1235 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

VAZ001-005-081715-
Scott VA-Lee VA-
1235 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LEE AND WESTERN
SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

At 1235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Big Stone Gap, or 15 miles west of Gate City, moving
east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gate City, Weber City, Duffield, Clinchport, Fort Blackmore and
Jasper.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 8250 3659 8263 3664 8291 3677 8291
      3684 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 270DEG 14KT 3671 8284

DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
111 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

TNZ015>017-VAZ001-005-081800-
Sullivan TN-Hancock TN-Hawkins TN-Scott VA-Lee VA-
111 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SULLIVAN...NORTHEASTERN
HAWKINS...NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK...SOUTHEASTERN LEE AND SOUTHWESTERN
SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 111 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Jonesville, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kingsport, Rogersville, Gate City, Surgoinsville, Weber City, Church
Hill, Mount Carmel, Clinchport, Bays Mountain State Park, Sullivan
Gardens, Okolona, Kyles Ford and Fall Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3667 8255 3643 8258 3642 8260 3643 8262
      3644 8267 3642 8269 3649 8313 3667 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1711Z 275DEG 23KT 3658 8304

DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
119 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

TNZ014>016-038-039-081800-
Claiborne TN-Hamblen TN-Hancock TN-Grainger TN-Hawkins TN-
119 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HAWKINS...SOUTHEASTERN
CLAIBORNE...SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK...NORTHEASTERN GRAINGER AND
NORTHEASTERN HAMBLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 119 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tazewell, or 9 miles north of Rutledge, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rogersville, Sneedville, New Tazewell, Bean Station, Tazewell, Howard
Quarter, Thorn Hill, Mooresburg, Evanston, St. Clair, Treadway and
Klondike.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3655 8300 3630 8298 3628 8300 3631 8357
      3649 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 267DEG 24KT 3641 8348

DH

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