Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
319 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)...

Water vapor satellite imagery shows the closed upper low to our
northwest, over southern Indiana and parts of the Ohio River
Valley this afternoon. Locally, skies were rather clear earlier
this day across the forecast area. However with good insolation
the atmosphere has recovered and the CU field has really perked up
over the plateau and mountain areas. Given this, plus some showers
showing up on radar over southeast Kentucky and along the plateau,
still think that at least some scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop across the forecast area this afternoon and evening,
especially the northern half. The upper low will drop south
tonight and Sunday, which will again lead to unstable conditions.
Severe weather is not likely, but another round of afternoon
showers is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)...

Low pressure system that is expected to move over the area will
continue to be the biggest weather influencer through next week.
This will lead to a general pattern of cloudy skies, near/below
average temperatures, and persistent rain chances. A couple of
fronts and ripples of energy from the north will dive down during
the week, and this will lead to enhanced rain and thunderstorm
chances... But currently forecast models do not indicate any
particular day to have strong signal for widespread severe weather
during the upcoming work week. Due to the recent rainfalls and with
the potential for some locations to see several days of showers
and/or thunderstorms we could see the potential for flooding in
areas that see heavy rain this upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  85  68  84 /  50  60  40  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  81  66  83 /  50  70  50  60
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  82  67  83 /  50  70  40  60
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  79  64  82 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

CD/ABM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
328 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-221930-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
328 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 /228 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
through late this evening. Widespread severe storms are not
expected. However a few strong storms could develop, with damaging
winds and large hail a possibility.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Not hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
607 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

TNZ101-212300-
West Polk TN-
607 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL POLK COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM
EDT...

At 607 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Benton, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Benton, Reliance, Archville, Hiwassee Ocoee State Park and
Parksville.

LAT...LON 3512 8473 3517 8470 3523 8470 3524 8471
      3526 8467 3527 8467 3527 8452 3522 8439
      3503 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 297DEG 17KT 3520 8465

05/MA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
610 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

NCZ060-TNZ087-102-212300-
Cherokee NC-East Polk TN-Southeast Monroe TN-
610 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEROKEE AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONROE
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 609 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southeast of Etowah, or 15 miles northeast of Ducktown, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Murphy, Hiawasse Dam, Coker Creek, Violet, Marble and Unaka.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 8440 3525 8437 3534 8426 3526 8401
      3525 8400 3524 8401 3522 8397 3523 8391
      3522 8387 3499 8401 3499 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 297DEG 16KT 3524 8427

05/MA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
622 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLLEGEDALE             35.04N 85.05W
07/21/2018                   HAMILTON           TN   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

PWARREN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
624 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

TNZ085-086-212315-
Northwest Monroe TN-McMinn TN-
624 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCMINN AND
NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 623 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sweetwater, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sweetwater, Madisonville, Tellico Plains, Niota and Mount Vernon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 8460 3561 8454 3561 8452 3562 8452
      3554 8415 3535 8432
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 295DEG 17KT 3554 8451

05/MA

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