Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
336 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)...
Convection lined up from western KY to east TN this morning will
bring a wet start to the day. But high pressure will begin to
build in behind the departing H5 trough, and we expect to see
convective activity diminish from north to south this afternoon
and evening. For Friday, convection will be diurnally-driven and
mainly confined to higher elevations of the mountains and Plateau.
Temperatures will be well above normal Fri-Sun.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The upper level ridge axis will be just to the west to start the
long-term period. The ridge axis will move over the area Friday
night into Saturday morning. With this, there will be some weak
moisture return by Saturday afternoon. The best moisture on
Saturday will be across the southern half of the forecast area and
have around 20-30% chances for afternoon showers and storms with
dry conditions further to the north. Saturday will be the hottest
day of the long-term forecast with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s for most locations.

The ridge begins to break down late Saturday night into Sunday as an
upper level trough moves into the Upper Mississippi River Valley and
eventually the Great Lakes region by Sunday. At the surface, there
will be a front associated with the upper level trough. Moisture
will continue to increase across the area with southwesterly flow
throughout much of the atmosphere. Afternoon showers and storms will
be more widespread on Sunday and Monday. The front to the north will
slow and stall early next week as the trough races off to the
northeast and the ridge tries to become established. For now, it
looks as though the front will stall to the north across Ohio River
Valley keeping highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for most locations.
Also, expect numerous to widespread diurnally driven showers and
storms each afternoon next week. Overall, expect this to continue
into Wednesday on the 4th of July.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             88  71  91  73 /  60  20  20  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  69  91  72 /  60  10  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       86  70  92  72 /  60  10  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              85  65  90  67 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.

&&

GC/MA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
339 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-290745-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
339 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018 /239 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected once again
across the region. A few of these storms may become strong or
severe, producing damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with
localized flash flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today and tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1025 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PIKEVILLE               35.61N 85.20W
06/28/2018                   BLEDSOE            TN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WATER ACROSS HWY 127 SOUTH OF PIKEVILLE. ROCKFORT CREEK
            BRIDGE...WHICH IS NEAR THE HOSPITAL IS CLOSED.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1056 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

NCZ060-TNZ086-087-281600-
Cherokee NC-Northwest Monroe TN-Southeast Monroe TN-
1056 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHEROKEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL NOON EDT...

At 1056 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Madisonville, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Murphy, Tellico Plains, Coker Creek, Violet, Hiawasse Dam, Culberson
and Unaka.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8414 3499 8422 3540 8435 3547 8418
      3507 8392 3507 8393 3506 8394 3505 8397
      3504 8396 3498 8414
TIME...MOT...LOC 1456Z 336DEG 17KT 3537 8425

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1109 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ATHENS                  35.45N 84.60W
06/28/2018                   MCMINN             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE ROADS FLOODED ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

PWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1113 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SW GATLINBURG         35.66N 83.57W
06/28/2018                   SEVIER             TN   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            FLOODING IN THE ELKMONT AREA OF THE GSMNP.

&&

PWARREN