Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
506 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 416 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

Biggest concerns for the remainder of this evening into the
overnight period will be the severe threat along with the
potential for additional flooding concerns. Temperatures this
afternoon have warmed well into the 80s across nearly all of the
U.P. with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s. This rather warm, moist
atmosphere, coupled with uncapped instability, increasing 0-6km
shear, and adequate low- and mid-level lapse rates, is opening up
the door for strong to severe thunderstorms to directly impact
portions of Upper Michigan. Although the severe threat is expected
to wind down by around midnight or so, additional showers and
storms, especially along and ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary responsible for the extra push, could still contain
moderate to heavy rainfall capable of causing additional flooding
problems, particularly for areas already hardest-hit. As for
specific severe threats expected, gusty to damaging winds and hail
will be the primary concerns. While the tornadic threat is low, it
can't be entirely ruled out where storms may interact with
boundaries left behind from earlier convection. Also of note is
that places where the ground is already rather saturated could
have trees come down in sub-severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 455 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

Once any lingering showers exit the region with the fropa
tomorrow, look for much quieter weather to resume control through
much of the week. Surface high pressure will park itself overhead
Tuesday into early Friday, with the next pattern change arriving
by the end of the week. At this point, models that far out remain
elusive in nailing down anything specific, but the overall pattern
suggests next weekend being the next best chance for showers and
thunderstorms to potentially impact the forecast area. Regarding
temperatures, look for them to linger near normal for this time of
year, with no significant deviations currently anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 139 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

The active pattern across Upper Michigan will continue through
much of the TAF period, with strong to perhaps severe
thunderstorms possible this afternoon into this evening. A frontal
boundary will be traversing through the terminals later tonight,
allowing for winds to become northerly behind it. Despite the
fropa, lingering showers will be possible through much of the
overnight period, in addition to low ceilings and/or visbys. Look
for clearing by midday Monday.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 430 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

Convection will continue along and ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary with strong to severe thunderstorms expected into tonight.
Winds will stay at or below 20 knots through the forecast period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MIZ001>003-
     009>012-084.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...lg
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...TITUS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
427 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-182030-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
427 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 /327 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely tonight over much of Upper Michigan. A
few storms could be severe with moderate hail and damaging winds.
A few storms could also produce heavy rainfall. See the flood
watch product for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorm chances continue through Monday morning. Heavy
rainfall will be possible. See the flood watch for further
details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail, wind damage
or flooding from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in
Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-182030-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
427 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 /327 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight. A few storms could be
severe and could contain moderate hail and damaging wind gusts. A
few storms could also produce heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind
damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in
Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter.

LMZ221-248-250-182030-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
427 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight. A few storms could be
severe and could contain large hail and damaging wind gusts. A
few storms could also produce heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorm chances continue through Monday morning. Heavy rain
will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind
damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in
Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter.

KCW

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