Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Marquette, MI

657 
WGUS73 KMQT 170935
FFSMQT

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
535 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

MIC013-061-131-171245-
/O.CON.KMQT.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180617T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Houghton MI-Baraga MI-Ontonagon MI-
535 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
HOUGHTON COUNTY...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM EDT FOR
HOUGHTON...WESTERN BARAGA AND NORTHEASTERN ONTONAGON COUNTIES...

At 531 AM EDT, local law enforcement reported flash flooding in 
central and southern Houghton County. Three to six inches of rain 
have already fallen over the past 5 hours. Flash flooding is already 
occurring. Law enforcement reports that multiple roads are 
impassable and have asked that residents stay off area roadways 
until the water subsides and debris is cleared.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for central and southern Houghton 
County. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER 
GROUND NOW!

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Houghton, Baraga, L'anse, Calumet, Hancock, Laurium, Chassell, Lake
Linden, South Range, Covington, Alberta and Redridge.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the 
warned area through 9 AM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4729 8851 4729 8846 4722 8829 4720 8829
      4720 8825 4719 8822 4691 8814 4653 8843
      4657 8898 4694 8927

$$

KEC

444 
WGUS53 KMQT 171148
FFWMQT
MIC013-061-131-171615-
/O.EXT.KMQT.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180617T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Marquette MI
748 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY...

The National Weather Service in Marquette has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Houghton County in western Upper Michigan...
  Western Baraga County in north central Upper Michigan...
  Northeastern Ontonagon County in western Upper Michigan...

* Until 1215 PM EDT

* At 741 AM EDT, local law enforcement reported heavy rain across 
  the warned area. 4 to 7 inches of rain have fallen over the past 7 
  hours. Flash flooding is already occurring. Law enforcement has 
  reported that many of the main roadways have been washed out and 
  many roads remain impassable. Law enforcement requests that all 
  residents of Houghton County shelter in place until further notice.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for central and southern Houghton 
County. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER 
GROUND NOW! 

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Houghton, Baraga, L'anse, Calumet, Hancock, Laurium, Chassell, Lake
  Linden, South Range, Covington, Alberta and Redridge.

While rainfall will steadily diminish through the morning hours, it 
will take several hours for the water to subside and the debris to 
be cleared. Up to an additional half inch of rainfall may still 
occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4729 8851 4729 8846 4722 8829 4720 8829
      4720 8825 4719 8822 4691 8814 4653 8843
      4657 8898 4694 8927

$$

KEC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
127 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...Strong to Potentially Severe Storms and Heavy Rainfall Possible
Sunday...

Convection that had dominated much of Upper Michigan this morning
through early this afternoon has finally been winding down, with
just a few lingering showers remaining. With the atmosphere worked
over as much as it has been today, it appears as though there
should be a bit of a break through this evening. However, as the
nocturnal LLJ cranks up tonight, this could open up the door for
additional development, given there will be ample moisture
available as well as subtle perturbations riding along the
periphery of the mid- to upper-level ridge parked over the mid-
Mississippi into the Tennessee valleys. Unfortunately, the models
have been performing rather poorly, which means that hanging one's
hat on any particular solution may not be the best approach. Given
the type of tropicalesque pattern the U.P. is currently sitting
in, have gone with widespread lower-end PoPs for the overnight
period into Sunday morning, with an increase in chances by
tomorrow afternoon.

Sunday afternoon: The biggest wrench that could be thrown into
this forecast could be whether or not morning convection lingers
from anything that might develop overnight or develop around dawn.
Should the forecast area's atmosphere be worked over enough that
it's much more stable than anticipated, convection tomorrow
afternoon could be much more minimal with less of an impact. But,
with a frontal boundary on the doorstep by tomorrow afternoon, and
with warm, moist air continuing to be pumping into the region
through late tomorrow, strong to severe thunderstorms are not out
of the question. Supporting any stronger convection that develops
is the increasing 0-6km shear, with values approaching and
potentially exceeding 40 knots, and plentiful amounts of
instability. Add in steep low- to mid-level lapse rates, and this
all comes together for the U.P. to perhaps see storms capable of
producing hail and gusty to potentially damaging winds. Again, a
lot of this depends on what happens overnight into tomorrow
morning, which could stave off the more widespread severe threat
that could be lining up for tomorrow. No matter what happens with
the severe threat though, with such a juicy atmosphere, and PWATs
ranging from 1.5" to 2+", moderate to efficiently heavy rain is a
sure bet, especially in any stronger storms that may develop.

As the aforementioned boundary traverses through the U.P. Sunday
night into Monday, any showers and thunderstorms along and ahead
of it will be moving out along with it. By Tuesday, much drier
conditions will take back over, with benign weather expected to
prevail through much of the middle of the upcoming week. High
pressure that will dominate overhead for much of the week could
break down enough to allow for the next round of activity to move
in by the end of the week, but with such high discontinuity
amongst the models that far out, the details remain elusive. Look
for warm temperatures to prevail throughout the forecast period,
with the warmest day likely setting up tomorrow, given the above
discussed pattern.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 126 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

VFR conditions should generally prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this
aftn. However, clusters of shra/tsra will be roaming the Upper Lakes
region and will impact the terminals intermittently, especially
during the overnight/early morning hrs. Conditions will likely fall
to IFR if not lower during heaviest pcpn. Low-level jet aiming into
the Upper Lakes will result in LLWS overnight. There should mostly
be a break in shra/tsra activity during the day today, then cold
front dropping across the area will likely bring another round of
shra/tsra with conditions falling to MVFR or lower early this
evening. As upslope winds develop behind the front at KIWD/KCMX,
cigs will likely fall to IFR or even LIFR during the evening.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 355 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

Thunderstorm activity is winding down over the lakes, with a lull
expected for the remainder of this afternoon into this evening
once the current storms exit the area. Convection is expected to
ramp back up on Sunday out ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary with strong to possibly severe thunderstorms expected
tomorrow afternoon. As for the winds, southerly winds will be on
the increase overnight across the eastern half of Lake Superior,
reaching over 15 knots sustained. As the aforementioned frontal
boundary slides southward across the region, winds will become
northerly to northwesterly by tomorrow night, generally averaging
around 5 to 10 knots. A quiet period looks to prevail for much of
next week with little impacts to marine interests expected.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MIZ002-009.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...lg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
342 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-181200-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
342 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 /242 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today and tonight. A few
storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds. A few
storms could also produce heavy rainfall. See the flood watch
product for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorm chances continue through Monday morning. Heavy
rainfall will be possible. See the flood watch for further
details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail, wind damage
or flooding from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in
Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-181200-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
342 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 /242 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today and tonight. A few
storms could be severe and could contain large hail and damaging
wind gusts. A few storms could also produce heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind
damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in
Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter.

LMZ221-248-250-181200-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
342 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today and tonight. A few
storms could be severe and could contain large hail and damaging
wind gusts. A few storms could also produce heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorm chances continue through Monday morning. Heavy rain
will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind
damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in
Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter.

KEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1158 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

MIZ002-003-170445-
Ontonagon MI-Houghton MI-
1158 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1156 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles northeast of Ontonagon with an additional strong thunderstorm
5 miles east of Hancock, moving east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Houghton, Hancock, Chassell, South Range, Redridge, The Upper
Entrance of Portage Canal, McLain State Park, Toivola, Freda,
Fourteen Mile Point and Painesdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4709 8900 4714 8897 4727 8859 4700 8844
      4689 8912 4702 8918
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 251DEG 24KT 4701 8906

KEC