Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
603 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Line of heavy rain and storms continues to slowly
push east across the area this evening. Widespread rain showers
will continue to slide inland across the entire area ahead of the
main line of storms. IFR ceilings expected tonight with periods
of LIFR conditions possible overnight. Southerly wind gusts of
20-25 knots will continue through 06Z. 07/mb

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 416 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...The biggest concern for later this
afternoon and early tonight will be the threat of flooding
generally over western sections of the forecast area, especially
over most locations in southeast MS stretching east into parts of
Washington and Choctaw counties in AL. Further east flooding will
still be a concern overnight and early Fri generally west of a
line stretching from just east of Camden in Al to Navarre in
Northwest FL. Rainfall totals from 4 to 6 inches with locally
higher amounts will be possible generally north of a line
stretching from Camden AL to south of Leakesville in MS and 3 to 4
inches further east over most inland areas over southwest AL and
NWFL, and 2 to 3 inches closer to the coast. As a result a Flash
Flood Watch continues for much of the forecast area though noon
Fri. As the heavier rains spread further east overnight and early
Fri areas to the west will likely be removed from the watch
possibly before noon on Fri.

As for severe weather the threat still remains minimal with maybe an
isolated severe thunderstorm generally over the western half of the
forecast area through late this evening. The better forcing in the
low to mid levels of boundary layer and surface based instability
will decrease later this evening and overnight limiting the threat
for severe weather even more late tonight and early Fri. During the
day a marginal risk for severe weather will still exist for most
locations in the forecast area occurring mostly during the daylight
hours on Fri when better heating near surface develops.

The main upper short wave trough well to the west over the central
plains will lift northeast late tonight and on Fri leaving the north
central gulf region and forecast area in a warm moist humid pattern
through Fri afternoon. As result some fog will likely form near the
coast and just offshore this evening and overnight.

Temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal norms with lows
ranging from the low to mid 60s for most areas tonight followed by
highs Fri ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s for most areas
including the immediate coast.

For now a high risk for rip currents and heavy surf will continue
through Fri afternoon. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...Friday night into
early Saturday, a mid level shortwave heads northeast on the
backside of an upper ridge stretching north along the Eastern
Seaboard. This exiting energy pushes a cold front south of the
northern Gulf coast before stalling. Best chance of rain shifts
south of the coast with the front. Cooler air moves south over the
forecast area Friday night, bringing overnight lows ranging from
upper 40s north to around 60 along the coast Friday night.

As Saturday progresses through Saturday night, shortwave energy in
the base of an upper trough over the Plains begins to swing east
and organize. Southerly flow on the west side of an 850mb ridge
stretching west over the Gulf of Mexico increases in response to a
tightening pressure gradient and isentropic upglide over the
stalled boundary brings a return of rain and a few embedded
thunderstorms to the forecast area beginning Saturday. Temps
continue to see the effects of the cooler air that has moved over
the area, with highs Saturday ranging from upper 50s north to low
70s southeast, lows around 50 north to low 60s along the coast
Saturday night.

Sunday through Sunday night, guidance is advertising a warm front
organizing along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night into
Sunday, and depending upon the guidance, either pushing a warm
front inland (ECMWF and GFS) or it remaining along the coast
(NAM). Enough instability may bring some severe weather. If the
front moves inland, we have a surface based severe weather, with
damaging winds and a tornado or two possible. If the front remains
along the coast, another round of rain issues over land area is
likely with any surface base strong to severe storms remaining
over unprotected Gulf waters. In either case, upper level
support is limited over the forecast area, remaining well north of
the forecast area, helping to limit the chances of strong to sever
weather. At this point, with a wide range of possible solutions,
will highlight here until guidance converges.
/16

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Another round of shortwave
energy moves the Plains upper trough, bringing another round of
rain to the area. The ECMWF is advertising a slower passage and
longer period of rain lasting into Thursday. The GFS is more
progressive, ending the rain with a strong cold frontal passage
Wednesday afternoon. Have went with a blended approach for this
package, with the GFS ensembles leaning towards a slower frontal
passage as the decider. /16

MARINE...A strong east to southeast wind flow will continue
through this afternoon then become mostly south and slowly diminish
through Fri morning as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the
north. Hazardous conditions for small craft will continue over the
marine area through tonight with the moderate to strong onshore
flow. A light to moderate northerly flow will develop late Friday
into Friday night as the front moves off the coast and stalls. A
light southerly flow will redevelop by Sun as the weak frontal
boundary shifts north. Areas of fog, possibly reducing visibilities
to less than one nautical mile, will continue to form through
tonight then gradually lift after sunrise on Fri. As a result a
Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for the near shore waters
tonight and early Fri. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for ALZ051>057-059-
     261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for FLZ201>204.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ670-675.

     Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ631-632-650-655-
     670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ631-632-650-
     655.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ630-
     633>636.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-281530-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

A few severe storms are possible into this afternoon and perhaps
carrying over into the evening, mainly west of a line from Camden
Alabama to Pensacola Florida. Brief strong wind gusts are possible
in and near storms. A brief tornado occurrence cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ051>057-059-261>264-FLZ201-203-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-281530-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Escambia-
Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

A few severe storms are possible into this afternoon and perhaps
carrying over into the evening, mainly west of a line from Camden
Alabama to Pensacola Florida. Brief strong wind gusts are possible
in and near storms. A brief tornado occurrence cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ058-060-FLZ205-281530-
Crenshaw-Covington-Okaloosa Inland-
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Heavy rains will spread slowly west to east over the area late this
afternoon and overnight. Localized flooding is possible over low
lying and urban areas subject to poor drainage from excessive storm
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heavy rain could linger into Friday morning, bringing the potential
of localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

FLZ206-281530-
Okaloosa Coastal-
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

Heavy rains spread slowly west to east over the area late this
afternoon and overnight. Localized flooding is possible over low
lying and urban areas subject to poor drainage from excessive storm
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   High Rip Current Risk.

Heavy rain could linger into Friday morning, bringing potential of
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-281530-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

GMZ650-655-281530-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

GMZ670-675-281530-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
925 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
646 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W PIAVE               31.40N 88.83W
12/27/2018                   GREENE             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADS (PIAVE
            CHURCH, MANNING HILL, AND UNION ROADS) IN
            THE SAND HILL AND PIAVE AREAS OF GREENE
            COUNTY. SOME ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
659 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

ALZ052>054-280145-
Clarke AL-Wilcox AL-Washington AL-
659 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN CLARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN WILCOX
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CST...

At 659 PM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles northeast
of Saint Stephens, or 10 miles northwest of Jackson, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

Winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Thomasville, Grove Hill and Fulton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3186 8747 3150 8799 3166 8814 3170 8810
      3170 8809 3171 8809 3199 8783 3199 8767
      3200 8766 3200 8764
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 224DEG 37KT 3165 8797

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
813 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

MSZ067-076-280300-
Greene MS-Wayne MS-
813 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
CST...

At 813 PM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles east of
Richton, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clara.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3163 8869 3148 8849 3125 8869 3134 8884
      3138 8884
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 212DEG 43KT 3137 8873