Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
358 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...Isolated to scattered convection
will linger into the early evening hours, diminishing by mid to late
evening with the loss of daytime heating. However, additional
development is possible during the early morning hours offshore and
along coastal areas due to the marine diurnal max, west to southwest
wind resulting in some weak coastal convergence, and an increasingly
tropical airmass with precipitable waters hovering around 1.8-1.9
inches. Therefore, will show highest rain chances (30-40%) along and
south of I-10 during the predawn hours.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the area during the day Monday, beginning closer to the coast in the
morning and spreading inland as the day progresses. This is due to
the persistent broad trough/weakness aloft combined with increasing
deep layer moisture (precip waters 1.8 to 2 inches.) Locally heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning strikes will be the primary storm
threats, although a few storms could produce gusty winds as the wet
microburst potential will increase.

Lows will generally range from around 70 inland to low to mid 70s
along the coast. Highs on Monday will generally be in the mid to
upper 80s, tempered slightly by the increase in clouds and rain
chances. 34/JFB

.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...A weak and
broad upper level trough will continue across the southeastern
states through midweek. Meanwhile, a ridge of sfc high pressure
will remain from the western Atlantic across the Gulf Coast.
Southerly flow on the western side of the ridge will continue to
pump deep layer moisture into the region. The combination of
increasing deep layer moisture, the weakness aloft and daytime
heating will lead to scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be possible overnight as well, especially near the
coast. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning strikes will
be the primary storm threats, although a few storms could produce
gusty winds due to wet microbursts. /13

.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The upper trough will only
move slowly to the east through the end of the week as an upper
ridge builds in from the west. The combination of the trough,
plenty of deep layer moisture and daytime heating will continue to
lead to daily rounds of scattered to locally numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are forecast during the overnight hours. Both high and low
temperatures will be close to seasonal values. /13

&&

.MARINE...A predominate light west to southwest flow will persist
through next week as high pressure continues to ridge into the Gulf
from the western Atlantic. Little change in seas are expected with
wave heights staying in the 1-2 foot range. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  87  72  88  72  89  73  90 /  30  60  40  60  30  70  30  50
Pensacola   75  87  74  86  75  87  75  88 /  30  60  40  60  30  60  30  50
Destin      76  85  75  85  75  85  76  86 /  40  60  40  60  30  60  30  50
Evergreen   70  88  71  88  71  88  72  90 /  30  60  40  60  30  60  30  60
Waynesboro  69  87  70  88  71  89  71  90 /  20  60  40  60  30  70  30  50
Camden      69  88  71  88  71  89  72  91 /  30  50  40  50  30  60  30  50
Crestview   71  88  71  87  72  88  72  89 /  30  60  40  60  30  60  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
557 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-GMZ633-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-111100-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Perdido Bay-Wayne-Perry-Greene-
Stone-George-
557 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida, southeast Mississippi and the
coastal waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into
this evening. Hail is the primary threat, with strong winds also
possible. Localized ponding of water is also possible with the
stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
into the evening. Damaging winds are the primary threat, with small
hail also possible in the stronger storms.

Increasing onshore winds and an increasing tidal cycle will bring an
increasing chance of dangerous rip currents Thursday through Saturday.

GMZ630>632-634>636-650-655-670-675-111100-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
557 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms developing today will create locally higher winds and
higher waves. This will create hazardous conditions for smaller
craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
434 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     LIGHTNING        MILTON                  30.63N 87.04W
06/10/2018                   SANTA ROSA         FL   911 CALL CENTER

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A COMMERCIAL BUILDING IN
            MILTON. NO FIRE WAS REPORTED. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR DATA.

&&

RR

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