Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
358 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...Isolated to scattered convection
will linger into the early evening hours, diminishing by mid to late
evening with the loss of daytime heating. However, additional
development is possible during the early morning hours offshore and
along coastal areas due to the marine diurnal max, west to southwest
wind resulting in some weak coastal convergence, and an increasingly
tropical airmass with precipitable waters hovering around 1.8-1.9
inches. Therefore, will show highest rain chances (30-40%) along and
south of I-10 during the predawn hours.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the area during the day Monday, beginning closer to the coast in the
morning and spreading inland as the day progresses. This is due to
the persistent broad trough/weakness aloft combined with increasing
deep layer moisture (precip waters 1.8 to 2 inches.) Locally heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning strikes will be the primary storm
threats, although a few storms could produce gusty winds as the wet
microburst potential will increase.

Lows will generally range from around 70 inland to low to mid 70s
along the coast. Highs on Monday will generally be in the mid to
upper 80s, tempered slightly by the increase in clouds and rain
chances. 34/JFB

.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...A weak and
broad upper level trough will continue across the southeastern
states through midweek. Meanwhile, a ridge of sfc high pressure
will remain from the western Atlantic across the Gulf Coast.
Southerly flow on the western side of the ridge will continue to
pump deep layer moisture into the region. The combination of
increasing deep layer moisture, the weakness aloft and daytime
heating will lead to scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be possible overnight as well, especially near the
coast. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning strikes will
be the primary storm threats, although a few storms could produce
gusty winds due to wet microbursts. /13

.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The upper trough will only
move slowly to the east through the end of the week as an upper
ridge builds in from the west. The combination of the trough,
plenty of deep layer moisture and daytime heating will continue to
lead to daily rounds of scattered to locally numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are forecast during the overnight hours. Both high and low
temperatures will be close to seasonal values. /13

&&

.MARINE...A predominate light west to southwest flow will persist
through next week as high pressure continues to ridge into the Gulf
from the western Atlantic. Little change in seas are expected with
wave heights staying in the 1-2 foot range. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  87  72  88  72  89  73  90 /  30  60  40  60  30  70  30  50
Pensacola   75  87  74  86  75  87  75  88 /  30  60  40  60  30  60  30  50
Destin      76  85  75  85  75  85  76  86 /  40  60  40  60  30  60  30  50
Evergreen   70  88  71  88  71  88  72  90 /  30  60  40  60  30  60  30  60
Waynesboro  69  87  70  88  71  89  71  90 /  20  60  40  60  30  70  30  50
Camden      69  88  71  88  71  89  72  91 /  30  50  40  50  30  60  30  50
Crestview   71  88  71  87  72  88  72  89 /  30  60  40  60  30  60  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
557 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-GMZ633-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-111100-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Perdido Bay-Wayne-Perry-Greene-
Stone-George-
557 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida, southeast Mississippi and the
coastal waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into
this evening. Hail is the primary threat, with strong winds also
possible. Localized ponding of water is also possible with the
stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
into the evening. Damaging winds are the primary threat, with small
hail also possible in the stronger storms.

Increasing onshore winds and an increasing tidal cycle will bring an
increasing chance of dangerous rip currents Thursday through Saturday.

GMZ630>632-634>636-650-655-670-675-111100-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
557 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms developing today will create locally higher winds and
higher waves. This will create hazardous conditions for smaller
craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1057 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

FLZ203-205-206-101645-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
1057 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN OKALOOSA AND SOUTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1145
AM CDT...

At 1056 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Bagdad, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wright.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3047 8693 3049 8696 3054 8695 3056 8692
      3059 8694 3060 8695 3067 8694 3069 8662
      3042 8664
TIME...MOT...LOC 1556Z 273DEG 10KT 3057 8690

DJ/17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
209 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

FLZ203-101945-
Santa Rosa Inland FL-
209 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...EAST
CENTRAL SANTA ROSA COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles north of
Point Baker, or 9 miles north of Milton, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds around 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Point Baker and Roeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8716 3083 8717 3084 8679 3063 8679
      3063 8680
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 272DEG 18KT 3077 8702

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

FLZ202>204-102030-
Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Escambia Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMs WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
SANTA ROSA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 300 PM CDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms were centered near
Pace, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds around 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Pace, Milton, Bagdad, Pea Ridge, Floridatown,
Point Baker and Roeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8716 3058 8729 3061 8727 3073 8705
      3053 8684
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 308DEG 15KT 3056 8714

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
332 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

FLZ202-102115-
Escambia Coastal FL-
332 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SOUTH
CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 331 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles west of
Ensley, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, West Pensacola, Ensley, Goulding and
Myrtle Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3037 8736 3054 8742 3056 8737 3058 8729
      3060 8727 3049 8713
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 313DEG 10KT 3053 8734

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