Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
358 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

...This will be an abbreviated AFD due to ongoing active
weather...

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...In the very near term, forecast
area is bisected by surface warm front that lies in a NW-SE
fashion across our area. The feature is lifting to the NE with
time. A few hours ago mesocyclones, some of which may likely produced
tornadoes, exploded over the NE Sector of our area (and over the
interior NW FL Panhandle). Currently the ambient environment
remains favorable for more mesocyclone and isolated tornado
formation the next several hours along and just SE of the sfc
warm front. EffSrHel is maxed out in the 300-500 m^2 s-^2 and
there are some 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPES south of the warm front
(MLCAPES generally range under 1000 J/kg). This will continue
through around 9 PM CDT and a Tornado Watch is in effect. By
midnight, an upstream cold front will have moved through the
western portion of our area. By 3 AM, sfc winds will have shifted
to a W-NW direction behind the cold front. There will be periods
of patchy drizzle and fog in the sfc low wrap-around moisture
after the more significant and deeper precipitation departs the NE
zones during the mid evening. Give the orientation of the upper
system as it lifts to the NE on Monday, it will likley be mostly
cloudy on Monday north of Highway 84 with possible drizzle
lingering into the late morning. Temperatures will range below
normal.

Look for us to start trimming back the western edge of Tornado
Watch 56 over the next few hours. /23 JMM

.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...A N-S cloud
gradient remains Monday night through Tuesday as another upper
level vorticity maximum passes to the N. Yet another system
approaches Wed night, and clouds and rain chances will be on the
increase from the NW. /23 JMM

.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...No changes to previous
package. Afternoon high and morning low temperatures remain below
seasonal values through the period. /23 JMM and /10 GJM

&&

.MARINE...A cold front moves through the coastal waters this
evening and very early Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms end
from the west. Winds shift to the west and then northwest around
daybreak. West to northwest flow is then expected to gradually weaken
in the wake of the front through midweek.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect out to 60 nm east of Pensacola
through 9 PM CDT. Also a Small Craft Exercise Caution remains in
effect through most of the evening and may cancelled with the
1030 PM CDT update. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      56  75  56  76  56  78  57  73 /  20  10  10  10   0  10  20  30
Pensacola   61  74  59  75  59  77  60  74 /  40  10  10  10   0   0  10  40
Destin      66  73  62  73  61  75  62  73 /  80  10  10  10   0   0  10  40
Evergreen   58  76  55  75  55  77  55  73 /  70  10  10  10   0  10  20  40
Waynesboro  53  72  54  73  53  76  53  70 /  20  10  10  10   0  20  30  30
Camden      58  74  56  72  54  75  54  70 /  80  10  10  20   0  20  30  40
Crestview   60  76  56  76  55  78  56  74 /  80  10  10  10   0   0  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
558 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-231100-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
558 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become numerous across the
region today as a cold front approaches from the west. There is a
Marginal Threat for severe weather across the entire area today, but
the greatest risk for a few severe storms with damaging wind gusts and
perhaps an isolated brief/weak tornado will be over interior southwest
Alabama and inland portions of the western Florida panhandle from
late morning, through the afternoon and into the early evening hours.
Any heavy rainfall threat appears minimal due to the relatively fast
west to east motion of the front across the area today and tonight.
Stay tuned for further updates on the developing situation.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

There is a continued High Risk for rip currents along the Gulf
beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Sunday.

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-231100-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
558 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become numerous across the
region today as a cold front approaches from the west. There is a
Marginal Threat for severe weather across the entire area today, but
the greatest risk for a few severe storms with damaging wind gusts and
perhaps an isolated brief/weak tornado will be over interior southwest
Alabama and inland portions of the western Florida panhandle from
late morning, through the afternoon and into the early evening hours.
Any heavy rainfall threat appears minimal due to the relatively fast
west to east motion of the front across the area today and tonight.
Stay tuned for further updates on the developing situation.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

There is a continued High Risk for rip currents along the Gulf
beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Sunday.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-231100-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
558 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous conditions for small craft can be expected today and
tonight over much of the marine area. Small craft should exercise
caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous conditions for small craft will be possible into the early
and middle part of the week.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
211 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W Molino              30.72N 87.33W
04/22/2018                   ESCAMBIA           FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE CHIEF REPORTS A HOME WITH MISSING SHINGLES WITH
            DOWNED POWERLINES AND TREE DEBRIS OVER THE ROAD IN
            MOLINO, FL.

&&

DJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
358 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2018

MSZ075-076-078-079-222145-
Stone MS-Perry MS-Greene MS-George MS-
358 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...GEORGE...SOUTHEASTERN PERRY...SOUTHERN GREENE AND
NORTHEASTERN STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles southwest of McLain to 7 miles east of
Perkinston, and moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lucedale.

LAT...LON 3110 8895 3111 8843 3074 8841 3074 8909
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 258DEG 27KT 3100 8889 3080 8902

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