Small Craft Advisory 27, NWS Mobile, AL

335 
WHUS74 KMOB 142222
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
522 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT...

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR THE OPEN 
GULF WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA OUT TO 60 NM...

GMZ650-655-670-675-150600-
/O.CON.KMOB.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180415T1200Z/
/O.EXT.KMOB.SC.Y.0027.180415T1200Z-180416T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
522 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM
CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...South to southwest 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to
  gale force.

* WAVES/SEAS...Building 7 to 9 feet out to 20 NM and 8 to 10 
  feet 20 to 60 NM out. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ631-632-150600-
/O.EXT.KMOB.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-180416T1500Z/
Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
522 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...South to southwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 
  knots.

* WAVES/SEAS...Building 3 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ630-150600-
/O.EXT.KMOB.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-180416T0900Z/
Northern Mobile Bay-
522 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...Increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots.

* WAVES/SEAS...Building to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ633>636-150600-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-180415T1200Z/
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
522 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...South to southwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 
  knots.

* WAVES/SEAS...Around 2 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

342 
WHUS74 KMOB 150324
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1024 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT...

...GALE WARNING nO lONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS OF 
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA OUT TO 60 NM...

GMZ650-655-670-675-151130-
/O.CAN.KMOB.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180415T1200Z/
/O.EXT.KMOB.SC.Y.0027.180415T0324Z-180416T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
1024 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has cancelled the Gale
Warning. 

* WINDS...South to southwest 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts 
  to gale force. 

* WAVES/SEAS...Building 7 to 9 feet out to 20 NM and 8 to 10 
  feet 20 to 60 NM out. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ633>636-151130-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-180415T1200Z/
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
1024 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...South to southwest 20 to 25 knots with FREQUENT gusts 
  up to 30 knots. 

* WAVES/SEAS...Around 2 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave 
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially 
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these 
conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ631-632-151130-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-180416T1500Z/
Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
1024 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...South to southwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 
  knots. 

* WAVES/SEAS...sEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave 
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially 
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these 
conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ630-151130-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-180416T0900Z/
Northern Mobile Bay-
1024 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...Increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots.

* WAVES/SEAS...1 TO 2 FEET/

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave 
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially 
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these 
conditions.

&&

$$

596 
WHUS74 KMOB 150828 AAA
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
328 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

GMZ630-633>636-151800-
/O.EXT.KMOB.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-180416T0000Z/
Northern Mobile Bay-Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-
Western Choctawhatchee Bay-Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
328 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West to northwest at 18 to 23 knots with higher gusts. 
 
* WAVES/SEAS...Waves around 2 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ631-632-151800-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-180416T1500Z/
Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
328 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...West to northwest at 18 to 23 knots with higher gusts.  

* WAVES/SEAS...Waves 2 to 3 feet. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ650-655-670-675-151800-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-180416T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
328 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...South to southwest 25 to 30 knots with higher gusts. 

* WAVES/SEAS...7 to 9 feet out to 20 NM and 8 to 10 feet 20 to 60
  NM out. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

207 
WHUS74 KMOB 151814
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
114 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT...

GMZ630-633>636-160000-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-180416T0000Z/
Northern Mobile Bay-Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-
Western Choctawhatchee Bay-Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
114 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West to northwest 18 to 23 knots with higher gusts.

* WAVES/SEAS...Waves around 2 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ631-632-160200-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-180416T1500Z/
Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
114 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...West to northwest 18 to 23 knots with higher gusts.

* WAVES/SEAS...Waves 2 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ650-655-670-675-160200-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-180416T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
114 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...West to northwest winds 25 to 30 knots with higher 
  gusts.

* WAVES/SEAS...6 to 8 feet out to 20 NM and 7 to 10 feet 20 to 60
  NM out. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

269 
WHUS74 KMOB 160020
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
720 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

GMZ630-633>636-160130-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-180416T0000Z/
Northern Mobile Bay-Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-
Western Choctawhatchee Bay-Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
720 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The strong winds which prompted the Small Craft Advisory have
subsided below advisory criteria. Small craft should exercise
caution for the remainder of the night.

$$

GMZ650-655-670-675-160930-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-180416T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
720 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts. 

* WAVES/SEAS...5 to 7 feet out to 20 NM and 7 to 9 feet 20 to 60 
  NM out. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ631-632-160930-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-180416T1500Z/
Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
720 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 18 to 23 knots with higher gusts.

* WAVES/SEAS...Waves 2 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

853 
WHUS74 KMOB 161005 AAA
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
505 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

GMZ650-655-161115-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-180416T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
505 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory. 

Small craft should exercise caution. |

$$

GMZ631-632-161115-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-180416T1500Z/
Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
505 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory. 

Small craft should exercise caution. |

$$

GMZ670-675-162300-
/O.EXT.KMOB.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-180417T0000Z/
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
505 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots with higher gusts.

* WAVES/SEAS...5 to 7 feet.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

441 
WHUS74 KMOB 161206 AAA
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
706 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GULF WATERS OF 
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT UNTIL 7 PM
CDT...

GMZ670-675-162015-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-180417T0000Z/
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
706 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots with higher gusts.

* WAVES/SEAS...5 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

263 
WHUS74 KMOB 162021
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
321 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GULF WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT UNTIL 7 PM
CDT...

GMZ670-675-170000-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-180417T0000Z/
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
321 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots with occasional higher 
  gusts.

* WAVES/SEAS...4 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds or frequent gusts
of 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 7 feet or higher are expected to
produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1153 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...Gusty south to southeast winds continue through
the period with broken to overcast MVFR/IFR ceilings overspreading
the area. Patchy fog development will be possible near the coast
late tonight and early Saturday morning, with visibilities dipping
to MVFR/IFR levels in spots. A squall line capable of producing
damaging straight-line winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning
is expected to march west to east across the area late Saturday
morning through evening. Best estimates at this time have the line
reaching KMOB/KBFM between 14.18z and 15.00z, and KPNS between
15.00z and 15.06z. These windows should narrow in future updates
as the event unfolds and timing becomes a bit more certain.
Following the squall line, winds abruptly shift to northwesterly
and rain chances quickly taper off.

/49

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 842 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Overall things appear on track. Have made no changes at
the moment to the severe weather threat regarding impacts or
timing. A squall line is still forecast to develop west of the
area Saturday morning and move through the region Saturday
afternoon and night. Severe weather is likely with the squall line
with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. Embedded
tornadoes are also possible (and perhaps in individual cells ahead
of the line).

On this shift, we have adjusted the forecast rainfall amounts upward
over the southwest portion of our area by 1-2" on average (namely
portions of Stone, George, Perry, Greene, Mobile, Baldwin and
Escambia FL). The best sfc-850 hPa moisture flux convergence now
more acutely appears to be working in concert with the highest
values of thermodynamic instability (1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE) as
the deep convection moves in from the west (while also developing)
from late morning through evening. Will likely extend the Flash
Flood Watch into Baldwin and Escambia County FL, but will hold on
Monroe Co for now. The potential for rainfall totals as high as 4-6"
exists in the Flash Flood Watch area.

The magnitude of forecast vertical wind shear remains impressive
tomorrow. The question, as usual, is the amount of thermodynamic
instability that will be realized by developing updrafts that will
have no problem rotating 'right off the bat.' The highest threat
for tornadoes still appears to be west of a Grove Hill, AL to
Mobile, AL line - but we are also examining whether we should also
extend that threat a bit further east along the coast in
addition to. Hopefully the newer data this evening will make this
more clear. The exact outcome of this upcoming event is still
tenuous due to the fact that if the progression of the main line
stalls just by a few hours (i.e., with more downstream heating
over our area before its' arrival and subsequent higher
thermodynamic instability) this could spell big differences. For
example we could see a few strong tornadoes versus a brief weaker
tornado. It is still too early to determine and the data we have
seen thus far bolsters our ongoing forecast (the western FL
Panhandle counties, Escambia AL and Covington should really pay
close attention during the afternoon and evening). The forecast
tornado threat will likely will shift a bit as the details become
more clear.

In other news we are looking into issuing a Wind Advisory for
Saturday (at least for the coastal zones) and a Gale Watch may
also be needed for frequent gusts to near gale force on Saturday.
These changes could be in subsequent updates. /23 JMM

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018/

SEVERE WEATHER RISK INCREASING FOR SATURDAY...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS BRING AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT SATURDAY...

HIGH SURF AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACHES THIS WEEKEND...

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday Night/...Latest upper air map
analysis, shows an amplified long wave upper level trof now over
the spine of the Rocky Mountains, southward to the four corners of
the Desert Southwest. Large span of height falls associated with
the mean long wave trof has resulted in lowering heights/
pressures in the low levels and surface respectively over the
central Plains where a closed frontal low pressure system was
evolving over central KS. Potent upper level storm system over the
Plains tonight moves slowly east in the near term, with a large
area of notable upper level height falls expanding eastward over
the deep south. With frontal low pressure over the Plains,
undergoing occlusion across northeast Nebraska into Missouri,
attendant cold front is favored to be a slow eastward mover over
the deep south Saturday and Saturday night. Ahead of the front,
low level wind fields respond by increasing with low level south
to southwesterly H850 jet streak intensifying to around 50 kts
thru the course of the day Saturday. Backed surface winds below
strengthening and low level veering wind profiles result in
elevated 0-1 KM Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) values from 300 to
500 m2/s2 in the presence of a narrow eastward moving favorable
instability profile (SB CAPES rising to between 1000 to 2000 J/KG)
Saturday. An enhanced risk of severe storms is maintained Saturday
with a threat for damaging winds in excess of 70 mph and
tornadoes => (in discreet supercells just out ahead of eastward
moving squall line). At this time, it appears the greatest threat
initially for this exists along and west of a line from
Thomasville to Mobile AL Saturday morning into the afternoon.
What's concerning is that the wind field/shear profiles result in
strongly curved hodographs supportive of rotating updrafts.
Tornado watches will likely be issued for our area on Saturday.
Take the time to review severe weather safety at www.weather.gov/safety
and ensure your Mobile devices are charged and NOAA weather
radios are in good operating order to ensure you will be able to
get all the latest information regarding watches and warnings. The
line of storms continues eastward along and east of I-65 into the
evening, maintaining a severe weather and heavy rain threat
before threat diminishes late in the night.

As mentioned earlier, the slow eastward motion of the front favors
an increased potential of heavy rainfall. A general 2 to 4 inches
is possible with some locations possibly getting upwards of 5+
inches over the western zones where Flash Flood Watch is currently
in effect for this potential. Some eastward expansion of the
watch is possible on later forecast packages. Breezy conditions
continue. Considering this along with long period period swell and
breakers building upwards to some 4 to 6 feet into the surf zone
Saturday and Saturday night, dangerous to potentially deadly rip
current risk remains high. High surf advisories also in effect.
Please refer to National Weather Service Mobile AL webpage at
www.weather.gov/mob for specific information on all hazards and
expected timing. /10

HYDROLOGY...Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches on Saturday (generally
across the Flash Flood Watch area) will cause numerous rivers across
the area to respond. In southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama,
expect to see quick rises along the rivers beginning Saturday
afternoon and evening in response to the heavy rain. Minor Flooding
is expected on several of those rivers, mainly across the Flash
Flood Watch area.

Higher rainfall totals of 5+ inches are possible where heavy rain
repeatedly moves over the same area. If those higher totals are
realized upstream of the rivers in southeast Mississippi and parts
of extreme southwest Alabama, a few rivers may rise very close to
Moderate Flood Stage. Of particular concern for flooding will be the
fast-response rivers in the coastal Alabama counties. Based on the
QPF ensembles, if 4-5 inches falls upstream of the Styx near Elsanor
in Baldwin County, the river could rise above Moderate Flood Stage
by Sunday afternoon. We stress that may only happen if higher
rainfall totals are realized upstream of those river points. 07/MB

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...
Mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes region ejects
northeast as the trailing cold front continues to push through the
central Gulf Coast Sunday. Along with the front breezy north winds
during the day will help advect south much cooler air as max
temperatures are expected to be into the upper 60s nearly 10 degrees
below the monthly average. Dew points fall into the low 40s by
Sunday evenings as drier conditions dominate the short term.
Overnight and into Monday a surface ridge builds over southern
Alabama. The corresponding subsidence should diminish any rain
chances during the day and into the first half of the week. DJ/17

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...
Mid-level ridge and surface high pressure move over central Alabama
starting Tuesday. As the ridge builds throughout the day the
surface high drifts eastward and winds veer out of the south. Late
in the day Wednesday a dry shortwave traverses the Ohio River
Valley with a weak trailing surface boundary. Precipitable water
values are rather low at 1.1 inches as such rain isn't expected at
this time. Overnight light southwest winds shift out of the
northwest on Thursday as dry mid conditions continue late into the
week. DJ/17

MARINE...

Southerly winds of 15 to 20 knots expected tonight with waves
expecting the build ahead of a strong cold front. Saturday
afternoon until the evening numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected ahead and along an anticipated line strong
thunderstorms. Seas build to 8 to 10 feet offshore from the
persistent southerly swell. Small craft will have to exercise
caution tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect starting
tomorrow until Sunday morning for the bays. Winds shift out of the
north Sunday behind the cold front. The Small Craft Advisory
continues for the near and offshore waters until Monday Morning.
Winds gradually lax towards the beginning of next week as surface
high builds over the central Gulf Coast. DJ/17

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Saturday through late Saturday
     night for ALZ051>056-059-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 PM CDT Sunday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Saturday through late Saturday
     night for FLZ201>204.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 PM CDT Sunday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Saturday through late Saturday
     night for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Monday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ630>636.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
414 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

ALZ266-FLZ202-204-206-142200-
Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-
414 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 PM CDT
SUNDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   High Surf Advisory.

An organized line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread
eastward across the area Saturday into Saturday night. Some storms
will likely become severe, particularly from late Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. Conditions will be favorable for an
enhanced risk of damaging straight line winds in excess of 70 mph
and a few tornadoes. The slow moving line of showers and
thunderstorms will bring an increased potential of heavy rainfall and
a risk of flooding over urban and low lying areas Saturday and
Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required Saturday and Saturday night.

ALZ265-142200-
Mobile Coastal-
414 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 PM CDT
SUNDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   High Surf Advisory.

n organized line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread
eastward across the area Saturday into Saturday night. Some storms
will likely become severe, particularly from late Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. Conditions will be favorable for an
enhanced risk of damaging straight line winds in excess of 70 mph
and a few tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required Saturday and Saturday night.

ALZ055>060-262-264-FLZ201-203-205-142200-
Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-Escambia-Covington-Baldwin Inland-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
414 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

An organized line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread
eastward across the area Saturday into Saturday night. Some storms
will likely become severe, particularly from late Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. Conditions will be favorable for an
enhanced risk of damaging straight line winds in excess of 70 mph
and a few tornadoes. The slow moving line of showers and
thunderstorms will bring an increased potential of heavy rainfall and
a risk of flooding over urban and low lying areas Saturday and
Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required Saturday and Saturday night.

ALZ051>054-261-263-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-142200-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Mobile Inland-Mobile Central-Wayne-
Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
414 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

An organized line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread
eastward across the area Saturday into Saturday night. Some storms
will likely become severe, particularly from late Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. Conditions will be favorable for an
enhanced risk of damaging straight line winds in excess of 70 mph
and a few tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required Saturday and Saturday night.

GMZ630>636-142200-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
414 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Small craft should exercise caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

GMZ650-655-670-675-142200-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
414 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Small craft should exercise caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.