River Flood Warning 22, NWS Mobile, AL

088 
WGUS84 KMOB 141520
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1020 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018
 

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties.

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-059-141550-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-180414T1520Z/
/MRRM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1020 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Pascagoula At Merrill
* until Wednesday December 31.
* At 9 AM Saturday the stage was 13.4 feet. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
646 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Gusty southeast winds continue through the period
as broken to overcast ceilings dip back to MVFR/IFR levels
tonight into Saturday. Patchy fog development will be possible
near the coast as well late tonight and early Saturday morning,
with visibilities dipping to MVFR/IFR levels. A squall line
capable of producing damaging straight-line winds, heavy rain, and
frequent lightning is expected to march west to east across the
area late Saturday morning through evening. Best estimate at this
time has the line reaching KMOB/KBFM by the end of this period
(15.00z), and KPNS during the early part of next period (by
15.06z). However, discrete thunderstorms could form ahead of this
line, particularly during the late morning and afternoon hours,
and will also be capable of producing strong winds, heavy
downpours, and even perhaps a few tornadoes. Following the squall
line, winds abruptly shift to northwesterly. /49

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018/

.SEVERE WEATHER RISK INCREASING FOR SATURDAY...

..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS BRING AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT SATURDAY...

..HIGH SURF AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACHES THIS WEEKEND...

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday Night/...Latest upper air map
analysis, shows an amplified long wave upper level trof now over
the spine of the Rocky Mountains, southward to the four corners of
the Desert Southwest. Large span of height falls associated with
the mean long wave trof has resulted in lowering heights/
pressures in the low levels and surface respectively over the
central Plains where a closed frontal low pressure system was
evolving over central KS. Potent upper level storm system over the
Plains tonight moves slowly east in the near term, with a large
area of notable upper level height falls expanding eastward over
the deep south. With frontal low pressure over the Plains,
undergoing occlusion across northeast Nebraska into Missouri,
attendant cold front is favored to be a slow eastward mover over
the deep south Saturday and Saturday night. Ahead of the front,
low level wind fields respond by increasing with low level south
to southwesterly H850 jet streak intensifying to around 50 kts
thru the course of the day Saturday. Backed surface winds below
strengthening and low level veering wind profiles result in
elevated 0-1 KM Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) values from 300 to
500 m2/s2 in the presence of a narrow eastward moving favorable
instability profile (SB CAPES rising to between 1000 to 2000 J/KG)
Saturday. An enhanced risk of severe storms is maintained Saturday
with a threat for damaging winds in excess of 70 mph and
tornadoes => (in discreet supercells just out ahead of eastward
moving squall line). At this time, it appears the greatest threat
initially for this exists along and west of a line from
Thomasville to Mobile AL Saturday morning into the afternoon.
What's concerning is that the wind field/shear profiles result in
strongly curved hodographs supportive of rotating updrafts.
Tornado watches will likely be issued for our area on Saturday.
Take the time to review severe weather safety at www.weather.gov/safety
and ensure your Mobile devices are charged and NOAA weather
radios are in good operating order to ensure you will be able to
get all the latest information regarding watches and warnings. The
line of storms continues eastward along and east of I-65 into the
evening, maintaining a severe weather and heavy rain threat
before threat diminishes late in the night.

As mentioned earlier, the slow eastward motion of the front favors
an increased potential of heavy rainfall. A general 2 to 4 inches
is possible with some locations possibly getting upwards of 5+
inches over the western zones where Flash Flood Watch is currently
in effect for this potential. Some eastward expansion of the
watch is possible on later forecast packages. Breezy conditions
continue. Considering this along with long period period swell and
breakers building upwards to some 4 to 6 feet into the surf zone
Saturday and Saturday night, dangerous to potentially deadly rip
current risk remains high. High surf advisories also in effect.
Please refer to National Weather Service Mobile AL webpage at
www.weather.gov/mob for specific information on all hazards and
expected timing. /10

HYDROLOGY...Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches on Saturday (generally
across the Flash Flood Watch area) will cause numerous rivers across
the area to respond. In southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama,
expect to see quick rises along the rivers beginning Saturday
afternoon and evening in response to the heavy rain. Minor Flooding
is expected on several of those rivers, mainly across the Flash
Flood Watch area.

Higher rainfall totals of 5+ inches are possible where heavy rain
repeatedly moves over the same area. If those higher totals are
realized upstream of the rivers in southeast Mississippi and parts
of extreme southwest Alabama, a few rivers may rise very close to
Moderate Flood Stage. Of particular concern for flooding will be the
fast-response rivers in the coastal Alabama counties. Based on the
QPF ensembles, if 4-5 inches falls upstream of the Styx near Elsanor
in Baldwin County, the river could rise above Moderate Flood Stage
by Sunday afternoon. We stress that may only happen if higher
rainfall totals are realized upstream of those river points. 07/MB

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...
Mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes region ejects
northeast as the trailing cold front continues to push through the
central Gulf Coast Sunday. Along with the front breezy north winds
during the day will help advect south much cooler air as max
temperatures are expected to be into the upper 60s nearly 10 degrees
below the monthly average. Dew points fall into the low 40s by
Sunday evenings as drier conditions dominate the short term.
Overnight and into Monday a surface ridge builds over southern
Alabama. The corresponding subsidence should diminish any rain
chances during the day and into the first half of the week. DJ/17

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...
Mid-level ridge and surface high pressure move over central Alabama
starting Tuesday. As the ridge builds throughout the day the
surface high drifts eastward and winds veer out of the south. Late
in the day Wednesday a dry shortwave traverses the Ohio River
Valley with a weak trailing surface boundary. Precipitable water
values are rather low at 1.1 inches as such rain isn't expected at
this time. Overnight light southwest winds shift out of the
northwest on Thursday as dry mid conditions continue late into the
week. DJ/17

MARINE...

Southerly winds of 15 to 20 knots expected tonight with waves
expecting the build ahead of a strong cold front. Saturday
afternoon until the evening numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected ahead and along an anticipated line strong
thunderstorms. Seas build to 8 to 10 feet offshore from the
persistent southerly swell. Small craft will have to exercise
caution tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect starting
tomorrow until Sunday morning for the bays. Winds shift out of the
north Sunday behind the cold front. The Small Craft Advisory
continues for the near and offshore waters until Monday Morning.
Winds gradually lax towards the beginning of next week as surface
high builds over the central Gulf Coast. DJ/17

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for ALZ051>054-261-263-265.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 PM CDT Sunday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 PM CDT Sunday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Monday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ630>636.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
414 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

ALZ266-FLZ202-204-206-142200-
Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-
414 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 PM CDT
SUNDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   High Surf Advisory.

An organized line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread
eastward across the area Saturday into Saturday night. Some storms
will likely become severe, particularly from late Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. Conditions will be favorable for an
enhanced risk of damaging straight line winds in excess of 70 mph
and a few tornadoes. The slow moving line of showers and
thunderstorms will bring an increased potential of heavy rainfall and
a risk of flooding over urban and low lying areas Saturday and
Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required Saturday and Saturday night.

ALZ265-142200-
Mobile Coastal-
414 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 PM CDT
SUNDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   High Surf Advisory.

n organized line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread
eastward across the area Saturday into Saturday night. Some storms
will likely become severe, particularly from late Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. Conditions will be favorable for an
enhanced risk of damaging straight line winds in excess of 70 mph
and a few tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required Saturday and Saturday night.

ALZ055>060-262-264-FLZ201-203-205-142200-
Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-Escambia-Covington-Baldwin Inland-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
414 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

An organized line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread
eastward across the area Saturday into Saturday night. Some storms
will likely become severe, particularly from late Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. Conditions will be favorable for an
enhanced risk of damaging straight line winds in excess of 70 mph
and a few tornadoes. The slow moving line of showers and
thunderstorms will bring an increased potential of heavy rainfall and
a risk of flooding over urban and low lying areas Saturday and
Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required Saturday and Saturday night.

ALZ051>054-261-263-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-142200-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Mobile Inland-Mobile Central-Wayne-
Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
414 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

An organized line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread
eastward across the area Saturday into Saturday night. Some storms
will likely become severe, particularly from late Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. Conditions will be favorable for an
enhanced risk of damaging straight line winds in excess of 70 mph
and a few tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required Saturday and Saturday night.

GMZ630>636-142200-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
414 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Small craft should exercise caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

GMZ650-655-670-675-142200-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
414 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Small craft should exercise caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.