Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
845 PM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018

.UPDATE...
Strong high pressure northeast of the mid Atlantic coast and
strengthening Hurricane Michael emerging into the southeast Gulf
will continue the tight pressure gradient across the area. Low
level flow in the H9-H8 layer will remain elevated to 25-35 knots
which will continue to allow repeated rounds of scattered Atlantic
showers to move onshore. Slightly deeper low to mid level moisture
across nrn sections should favor high coverage of onshore moving
showers north of Sebastian Inlet with activity moving well into the
interior through the night. Some of the quick moving showers will be
accompanied by gusty winds to 30 to 40 mph as they move WNW.
Increased POPs some for nrn/central cstl sections (to 60 pct) where
current coverage of onshore moving showers remains highest. Breezy
winds will continue at the coast with lows in the mid 70s interior
to upper 70s to around 80 near the east coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Should see a higher coverage of onshore moving showers mainly from
KVRB northward which will make it into the interior to Orlando area
terminals and KLEE overnight. Have included TEMPO groups for much of
the this activity. Short range guidance continues higher SHRA
chances for nrn terminals into Tue morning with a moist airmass
allowing for diurnal convection to develop as flow level flow veers
to the ESE/SE into Tue afternoon. Showers will be accompanied by
MVFR CIGs and short duration IFR VSBYs with mod-heavy rain and gusty
winds to near 30 knots possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Easterly winds around 20KT tonight wil gradually veer to
the ESE by Tue morning. Seas will build to 6-8 feet in the nearshore
waters and peaking up to 9 ft in the offshore waters during the day
on Tuesday. Small craft advisory conditions continue for all of the
east central FL Atlc waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  85  77  88 /  60  60  40  60
MCO  76  87  76  89 /  50  60  30  60
MLB  81  87  78  88 /  60  60  40  60
VRB  79  86  79  88 /  50  60  40  60
LEE  76  88  76  89 /  40  60  30  60
SFB  75  87  77  90 /  60  60  40  60
ORL  75  87  76  89 /  50  60  30  60
FPR  79  86  78  88 /  40  60  40  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

Volkmer/Weitlich/Rodriguez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
712 PM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-091030-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
712 PM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Gusty isolated to scattered showers and squalls will continue to
develop over the local Atlantic waters, pushing onshore overnight
and inland up to 30 to 35 knots. These showers will be capable of
producing occasional wind gusts around 35 knots over the local
Atlantic and Intracoastal Waters, and over inland lakes. Boaters
should look be alert for squalls moving in rapidly from the east.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Easterly winds up to 20 to 25 knots will produce seas as high as
7 feet near shore and up to 9 feet well offshore through tonight.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the east central
Florida Atlantic waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
Hurricane Michael is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane
while lifting north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Deep moisture
will lead to increasing rain coverage along with a slight chance for
thunderstorms and squalls Tuesday through Thursday. Squalls will
potentially gust to tropical storm force in a few areas, along
with the chance of one or two tornadoes from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas
will be possible. Beach and boating conditions will remain poor
through mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

Weitlich

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