Alert archive / Florida / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

July 6, 2018Brevard County, Florida

NWS Melbourne, FL issued this special weather statement at Jul 6, 2018, 3:09 PM EDT for Brevard County, Florida. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 6, 2018, 3:09 PM EDT (19:09 UTC)
Expired: Jul 6, 2018, 4:00 PM EDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Melbourne, FL

County Brevard County, FL

The radar

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 23 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1168 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -41 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 980 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 4 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 64 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 6, 9:47 AM EDT, 5 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 9:47 AM EDT, 5 hours 22 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
947 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.UPDATE...

...Scattered Strong Lightning Storms this Afternoon...

Today...A weak mid level cyclonic circulation was situated over east
central Florida this morning.  Considerable mid level cloudiness was
occurring, especially across the south half.  The mid cloud deck has
looked rather thin, so we don't think it will significantly inhibit
storm formation this afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows mid-upper
level drying on the southwest flank of a well defined upper level
low just offshore near the Georgia/Florida border.  This drying
aloft has started to reach our northern sections.

It's still cool aloft with 500mb temps around minus 9C.  Morning
soundings and satellite precipitable water estimates are in the 1.8
to 1.9 inch range.

The pressure gradient is weak as east central Florida lies near a
weakness in the subtropical ridge.  We are getting some northeast to
east winds 5-10 mph already this morning in Brevard, but that is
likely due to some outflow from a convective complex offshore.  The
east coast sea breeze should set up along the Volusia county coast
towards midday and start to focus storms.  The HRRR model shows this
occurring, then a south to southwest propagation of storms is
indicated through late afternoon.  This basic evolution was also
shown by our 09z local WRF.

The moisture and instability parameters suggest likely PoPs for most
of the area with a chance for strong storms again.  Lightning will
be the main hazard, which will be frequent in a few strong storms.
Slow storm motion will bring a risk of local flooding and aggravate
ongoing minor river flooding.  The HRRR model has been showing some
amounts around 3 inches.  With the cool temps aloft and some mid
level dry air in the north, a few storms may produce gusty winds 40-
50 mph and small hail.

Overall little change to the previous forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Another active afternoon is expected with storms forming on the sea
breeze and propagating inland.  The latest HRRR model shows
convective initiation occurring KDAB-KTIX towards midday, then
spreading inland and southward through late afternoon.  By early
evening, it is expected that only areas of light rain will be
lingering at some of the terminals. A few of the storms will be
strong with frequent lightning and gusty winds 35-40 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...The subtropical ridge is poorly defined, causing the
pressure gradient early this morning to be light.  Winds are largely
due to outflow boundaries from offshore storms.  So, there are no
wind/sea concerns.  The primary threat will be scattered storms that
form over the mainland, which affect the intracoastal waterways this
afternoon.  Outflow boundaries and a few storms should also affect
the nearshore Atlantic waters into evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Saint Johns River near Astor has reached Action Stage (2.0 feet)
and is forecast to only slowly rise through the weekend, remaining
below Flood Stage.

Farther upstream, the river level near Sanford remains in Action
Stage at 4.7FT. Additional slight rises are expected through the
weekend but the river will remain below Flood Stage.

The Saint Johns River near Geneva, just south of Lake Harney,
remains in Minor Flood at 8.6 FT. Additional slight rises are
possible through the weekend. A River Flood Warning remains in
effect for this area.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

UPDATES...Lascody
IMPACT WX...Negron

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 6, 11:45 AM EDT, 3 hours 24 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1145 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-070000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1145 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Sufficient moisture and added instability aloft will trigger another
round of scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Development will start along the coast and propagate inland. The
greatest coverage of afternoon and evening thunderstorms is expected
over the interior where numerous boundary interactions should
occur.

Conditions are favorable for storms to produce frequent lightning
strikes, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, small hail, and quick 1 to 2
inch downpours. Those with outdoor activities, whether on land or
water, should remain weather aware. Seek shelter in an enclosed
building or automobile at the first sign of threatening weather.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be capable of producing
wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph over inland lakes this afternoon. Some
of these storms will push back toward the intracoastal and nearshore
waters late this afternoon and early this evening. Boaters should
be alert for gusty winds that occur well ahead of the heavy rain
and lightning associated with storms.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Persistent daily rains have led to a slow rise of the Saint Johns
River. The river just south of Lake Harney near Geneva remains in
Minor Flood. Additional slight rises are expected to continue
through this weekend. A River Flood Warning remains in effect for
this area.

Farther downstream, the Saint Johns River near Sanford and at
Astor are at Action Stage. Though additional slight rises are
expected to continue, the river is forecast to remain below flood
stage at those locations through Wednesday next week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening storms are expected
to continue into early next week. The main storm threats will be
frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes, gusty winds and
torrential downpours producing urban, river and poor drainage
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed.

KN

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 6, 2:10 PM EDT, 59 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

FLZ047-147-061845-
Southern Brevard County FL-Northern Brevard County FL-
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM EDT...

At 210 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Merritt Island. This storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rockledge, Cocoa, Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral and Merritt Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2827 8078 2847 8081 2848 8060 2832 8060
      2828 8059
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 173DEG 2KT 2836 8071

Combs

Local storm report, Jul 6, 2:18 PM EDT, 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
218 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW DAYTONA BEACH      29.18N 81.07W
07/06/2018  M45 MPH          Volusia            FL   MESONET

            MESONET SITE AT DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY MEASURED
            WIND GUST OF 39KT/45MPH FROM W

&&

JRS

Special weather statement, Jul 6, 2:23 PM EDT, 46 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
223 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

FLZ041-046-061915-
Seminole FL-Inland Volusia FL-
223 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SEMINOLE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 223 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Deltona. This storm was nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Sanford, Orange City, Lake Helen and Geneva.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2895 8103 2877 8102 2873 8126 2895 8131
      2901 8105
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 249DEG 2KT 2894 8114

Combs

Special weather statement, Jul 6, 2:57 PM EDT, 12 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
257 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

FLZ045-046-061945-
Orange FL-Seminole FL-
257 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SEMINOLE AND CENTRAL
ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 257 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Jessup, moving east at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Altamonte Springs, Oviedo, Winter Springs and Winter Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2874 8133 2877 8106 2875 8106 2851 8117
      2850 8143
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 275DEG 9KT 2870 8121

Combs

Local storm report, Jul 6, 3:05 PM EDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
305 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WSW PATRICK AIR FORCE 28.22N 80.67W
07/06/2018  M45 MPH          Brevard            FL   MESONET

            MESONET SITE REPORTS WIND GUST OF 39KT/45MPH FROM E

&&

JRS

Special weather statement, Jul 6, 3:09 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
309 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

FLZ047-062000-
Southern Brevard County FL-
309 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM EDT...

At 308 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Patrick Air Force Base, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Melbourne, Rockledge, Cocoa Beach, Satellite Beach and Patrick Air
Force Base.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2812 8071 2830 8076 2836 8062 2836 8061
      2835 8061 2834 8062 2834 8061 2837 8060
      2838 8058 2835 8057 2833 8057 2815 8055
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 335DEG 6KT 2826 8064

Weitlich

The office that day

Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 6, 1:18 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	MLB	Seminole	27 min
Jul 6, 1:50 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	MLB	Volusia	40 min
Jul 6, 1:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MLB	Volusia	24 min
Jul 6, 1:59 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	MLB	Seminole	31 min
Jul 6, 2:06 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	MLB		54 min
Jul 6, 2:07 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	MLB		36 min
Jul 6, 2:10 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	MLB	Brevard	35 min
Jul 6, 2:23 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	MLB	Seminole	52 min
Jul 6, 2:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MLB	Volusia	39 min
Jul 6, 2:57 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	MLB	Orange, Seminole	48 min
Jul 6, 3:07 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	MLB		83 min
Jul 6, 3:18 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MLB	Volusia	87 min
Jul 6, 3:42 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	MLB	Orange	48 min
Jul 6, 3:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MLB	Orange	27 min
Jul 6, 4:47 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	MLB	Okeechobee	43 min
Jul 6, 5:07 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MLB	Indian River, Okeechobee, Saint Lucie	83 min
Jul 6, 6:52 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	MLB	Martin	38 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Florida, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.