Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
947 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.UPDATE...

...Scattered Strong Lightning Storms this Afternoon...

Today...A weak mid level cyclonic circulation was situated over east
central Florida this morning.  Considerable mid level cloudiness was
occurring, especially across the south half.  The mid cloud deck has
looked rather thin, so we don't think it will significantly inhibit
storm formation this afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows mid-upper
level drying on the southwest flank of a well defined upper level
low just offshore near the Georgia/Florida border.  This drying
aloft has started to reach our northern sections.

It's still cool aloft with 500mb temps around minus 9C.  Morning
soundings and satellite precipitable water estimates are in the 1.8
to 1.9 inch range.

The pressure gradient is weak as east central Florida lies near a
weakness in the subtropical ridge.  We are getting some northeast to
east winds 5-10 mph already this morning in Brevard, but that is
likely due to some outflow from a convective complex offshore.  The
east coast sea breeze should set up along the Volusia county coast
towards midday and start to focus storms.  The HRRR model shows this
occurring, then a south to southwest propagation of storms is
indicated through late afternoon.  This basic evolution was also
shown by our 09z local WRF.

The moisture and instability parameters suggest likely PoPs for most
of the area with a chance for strong storms again.  Lightning will
be the main hazard, which will be frequent in a few strong storms.
Slow storm motion will bring a risk of local flooding and aggravate
ongoing minor river flooding.  The HRRR model has been showing some
amounts around 3 inches.  With the cool temps aloft and some mid
level dry air in the north, a few storms may produce gusty winds 40-
50 mph and small hail.

Overall little change to the previous forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Another active afternoon is expected with storms forming on the sea
breeze and propagating inland.  The latest HRRR model shows
convective initiation occurring KDAB-KTIX towards midday, then
spreading inland and southward through late afternoon.  By early
evening, it is expected that only areas of light rain will be
lingering at some of the terminals. A few of the storms will be
strong with frequent lightning and gusty winds 35-40 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...The subtropical ridge is poorly defined, causing the
pressure gradient early this morning to be light.  Winds are largely
due to outflow boundaries from offshore storms.  So, there are no
wind/sea concerns.  The primary threat will be scattered storms that
form over the mainland, which affect the intracoastal waterways this
afternoon.  Outflow boundaries and a few storms should also affect
the nearshore Atlantic waters into evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Saint Johns River near Astor has reached Action Stage (2.0 feet)
and is forecast to only slowly rise through the weekend, remaining
below Flood Stage.

Farther upstream, the river level near Sanford remains in Action
Stage at 4.7FT. Additional slight rises are expected through the
weekend but the river will remain below Flood Stage.

The Saint Johns River near Geneva, just south of Lake Harney,
remains in Minor Flood at 8.6 FT. Additional slight rises are
possible through the weekend. A River Flood Warning remains in
effect for this area.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

UPDATES...Lascody
IMPACT WX...Negron

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1145 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-070000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1145 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Sufficient moisture and added instability aloft will trigger another
round of scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Development will start along the coast and propagate inland. The
greatest coverage of afternoon and evening thunderstorms is expected
over the interior where numerous boundary interactions should
occur.

Conditions are favorable for storms to produce frequent lightning
strikes, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, small hail, and quick 1 to 2
inch downpours. Those with outdoor activities, whether on land or
water, should remain weather aware. Seek shelter in an enclosed
building or automobile at the first sign of threatening weather.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be capable of producing
wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph over inland lakes this afternoon. Some
of these storms will push back toward the intracoastal and nearshore
waters late this afternoon and early this evening. Boaters should
be alert for gusty winds that occur well ahead of the heavy rain
and lightning associated with storms.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Persistent daily rains have led to a slow rise of the Saint Johns
River. The river just south of Lake Harney near Geneva remains in
Minor Flood. Additional slight rises are expected to continue
through this weekend. A River Flood Warning remains in effect for
this area.

Farther downstream, the Saint Johns River near Sanford and at
Astor are at Action Stage. Though additional slight rises are
expected to continue, the river is forecast to remain below flood
stage at those locations through Wednesday next week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening storms are expected
to continue into early next week. The main storm threats will be
frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes, gusty winds and
torrential downpours producing urban, river and poor drainage
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed.

KN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
118 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

FLZ041-045-046-141-147-061745-
Coastal Volusia FL-Northern Brevard County FL-Orange FL-Seminole FL-
Inland Volusia FL-
118 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SEMINOLE...NORTHWESTERN
BREVARD...SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL
145 PM EDT...

At 117 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sharpes. This storm was nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Titusville, Wedgefield, Port Saint John, Christmas and Mims.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2846 8075 2844 8107 2882 8111 2883 8082
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 034DEG 0KT 2847 8067

Combs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

FLZ041-141-061830-
Coastal Volusia FL-Inland Volusia FL-
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM EDT...

At 150 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Daytona International Speedway, or near Port Orange. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Daytona Beach, Port Orange, DeLand and New Smyrna Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2905 8093 2890 8122 2926 8133 2927 8103
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 141DEG 4KT 2912 8110

Combs

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