Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
910 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...Low-level westerlies represent a primary governor
for today's forecast across Central Florida. A late season frontal
boundary will sag south through North Florida to help organize
convection there, while ahead of the boundary a steady eastward
progression of developing showers/storms will occur. Greater
coverage will therefore be toward the coastal counties, even as the
east coast sea breeze is mostly thwarted once again. There will also
be a modest measure of upper support until the axis of the mid-upper
level trough swings east tonight. Morning XMR/TBW soundings verify
PWats still ~1.7 inches and 500 mb temps -8C to -9C as forecast.
Expect a little more vigor to the updraft/downdraft sequence aided
by solar heating, plenty of residual surface moisture, and somewhat
drier air aloft. Local gusts to 50 mph with increased lightning
activity.

Showers/storms should generate first for interior sections late
morning and early afternoon, then increase in number and intensity
moving eastward early-mid afternoon, with isolated secondary
convection lingering into the evening. Hot and humid. Max temps
peaking in the L/M90s, with mid-afternoon heat indices in the U90s
to near 100C. Overnight min temps in the L/M70s, with only slight
chances for showers staying out over tne marine waters.

&&

.AVIATION...Morning tempo bkn stratus lifting/breaking as
vertical mixing initiates thru 14-15Z. Main concern today will be
VCTS 17-21Z for interior sites, and 18-22Z coastal sites. Better
coverage toward the coast where tempo groups might be needed for
2SM TSRA BKN015- 025CB. Gusts greater than 34KT could occur given
presence of drier air aloft, prompting AWW monitoring this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...Westerly flow ahead of an approaching frontal boundary
will be 10-15 knots, except for a diurnal increase to around 15
knots offshore tonight. Seas will be around 2 feet at the coast
and up to 3-4 feet out near 60nm from shore.

The main hazard to mariners will again be a chance for strong storms
with gusty winds 35-40 knots moving across the coast and
intracoastal waters this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  74  94  71 /  40  10   0  10
MCO  93  75  95  72 /  30  10  10  10
MLB  93  76  94  73 /  40  10  20  10
VRB  93  76  94  72 /  40  10  30  20
LEE  92  75  94  72 /  30  10   0  10
SFB  93  75  96  72 /  30  10   0  10
ORL  93  76  95  72 /  30  10   0  10
FPR  93  74  94  72 /  40  10  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT-TERM/Long-Term...DS
AVIATION/DSS...FJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1000 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-050300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1000 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Daytime heating and a quite moist air mass will combine to
generate isolated to scattered afternoon storms. The main hazard
will be from occasional to frequent lightning strikes in a few
strong storms. Wind gusts to around 50 mph will also be possible.
Movement will be to the east at 10 to 15 mph. Those with outside
activities should move indoors as skies darken to the west or
thunder is heard in the distance.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered storms will move to the east at 10 to 15 mph
this afternoon and cross coastal sections into the nearshore
Atlantic. A few strong storms with frequent lightning strikes and
gusty winds 35 to 40 knots will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
Drier air is forecast to overspread areas northward from Orlando
and Cape Canaveral on Tuesday, inhibiting afternoon storm
formation there. Otherwise, moisture levels should support
scattered afternoon and evening storms, with some increase in
coverage expected late in the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Lascody/Johnson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1226 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2018

FLZ041-044-041700-
Northern Lake County FL-Inland Volusia FL-
1226 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAKE AND
NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1226 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Juniper Springs, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pierson, Lake George, Eldridge, Sellers Lake and Astor Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Lake George or Seller Lake, get out of the water and
move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out
to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 2908 8144 2908 8164 2928 8164 2929 8165
      2930 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 1626Z 261DEG 11KT 2920 8166

Combs