Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
910 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...Low-level westerlies represent a primary governor
for today's forecast across Central Florida. A late season frontal
boundary will sag south through North Florida to help organize
convection there, while ahead of the boundary a steady eastward
progression of developing showers/storms will occur. Greater
coverage will therefore be toward the coastal counties, even as the
east coast sea breeze is mostly thwarted once again. There will also
be a modest measure of upper support until the axis of the mid-upper
level trough swings east tonight. Morning XMR/TBW soundings verify
PWats still ~1.7 inches and 500 mb temps -8C to -9C as forecast.
Expect a little more vigor to the updraft/downdraft sequence aided
by solar heating, plenty of residual surface moisture, and somewhat
drier air aloft. Local gusts to 50 mph with increased lightning
activity.

Showers/storms should generate first for interior sections late
morning and early afternoon, then increase in number and intensity
moving eastward early-mid afternoon, with isolated secondary
convection lingering into the evening. Hot and humid. Max temps
peaking in the L/M90s, with mid-afternoon heat indices in the U90s
to near 100C. Overnight min temps in the L/M70s, with only slight
chances for showers staying out over tne marine waters.

&&

.AVIATION...Morning tempo bkn stratus lifting/breaking as
vertical mixing initiates thru 14-15Z. Main concern today will be
VCTS 17-21Z for interior sites, and 18-22Z coastal sites. Better
coverage toward the coast where tempo groups might be needed for
2SM TSRA BKN015- 025CB. Gusts greater than 34KT could occur given
presence of drier air aloft, prompting AWW monitoring this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...Westerly flow ahead of an approaching frontal boundary
will be 10-15 knots, except for a diurnal increase to around 15
knots offshore tonight. Seas will be around 2 feet at the coast
and up to 3-4 feet out near 60nm from shore.

The main hazard to mariners will again be a chance for strong storms
with gusty winds 35-40 knots moving across the coast and
intracoastal waters this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  74  94  71 /  40  10   0  10
MCO  93  75  95  72 /  30  10  10  10
MLB  93  76  94  73 /  40  10  20  10
VRB  93  76  94  72 /  40  10  30  20
LEE  92  75  94  72 /  30  10   0  10
SFB  93  75  96  72 /  30  10   0  10
ORL  93  76  95  72 /  30  10   0  10
FPR  93  74  94  72 /  40  10  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT-TERM/Long-Term...DS
AVIATION/DSS...FJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1000 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-050300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1000 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Daytime heating and a quite moist air mass will combine to
generate isolated to scattered afternoon storms. The main hazard
will be from occasional to frequent lightning strikes in a few
strong storms. Wind gusts to around 50 mph will also be possible.
Movement will be to the east at 10 to 15 mph. Those with outside
activities should move indoors as skies darken to the west or
thunder is heard in the distance.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered storms will move to the east at 10 to 15 mph
this afternoon and cross coastal sections into the nearshore
Atlantic. A few strong storms with frequent lightning strikes and
gusty winds 35 to 40 knots will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
Drier air is forecast to overspread areas northward from Orlando
and Cape Canaveral on Tuesday, inhibiting afternoon storm
formation there. Otherwise, moisture levels should support
scattered afternoon and evening storms, with some increase in
coverage expected late in the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Lascody/Johnson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1226 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2018

FLZ041-044-041700-
Northern Lake County FL-Inland Volusia FL-
1226 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAKE AND
NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1226 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Juniper Springs, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pierson, Lake George, Eldridge, Sellers Lake and Astor Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Lake George or Seller Lake, get out of the water and
move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out
to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 2908 8144 2908 8164 2928 8164 2929 8165
      2930 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 1626Z 261DEG 11KT 2920 8166

Combs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
115 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2018

FLZ041-044-041800-
Northern Lake County FL-Inland Volusia FL-
115 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LAKE AND CENTRAL
VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 114 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near DeLand Airport to near Paisley. Movement
was southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, DeLand, Orange City, Lake Helen and Paisley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Lake Helen or Lake Kathryn, get out of the water and
move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out
to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 2912 8128 2902 8105 2896 8103 2886 8136
      2888 8136 2887 8138 2886 8138 2884 8144
      2903 8162
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 295DEG 18KT 2906 8132 2903 8150

Combs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2018

FLZ041-046-141-147-041845-
Coastal Volusia FL-Northern Brevard County FL-Seminole FL-
Inland Volusia FL-
200 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SEMINOLE AND SOUTHEASTERN
VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 200 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Deltona to DeBary.
Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Sanford, Winter Springs, New Smyrna Beach and Lake Mary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2878 8083 2880 8085 2873 8084 2871 8132
      2889 8136 2894 8135 2901 8099
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 308DEG 17KT 2896 8108 2890 8131

Combs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
248 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2018

FLZ041-045-046-141-147-041945-
Coastal Volusia FL-Northern Brevard County FL-Orange FL-Seminole FL-
Inland Volusia FL-
248 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SEMINOLE...NORTHWESTERN
BREVARD...EAST CENTRAL ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL
345 PM EDT...

At 248 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Osteen to near Scottsmoor. Movement was
east at 25 mph.  An outflow boundary moving southward across
Seminole, northern Brevard, and northeastern Orange counties is
expected to initiate additional strong thunderstorms.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Sanford, Titusville, Oviedo and Winter Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2858 8060 2854 8073 2859 8066 2863 8079
      2872 8074 2880 8085 2854 8079 2852 8132
      2885 8129 2887 8084 2886 8080 2880 8079
      2882 8076 2869 8071 2866 8064 2856 8057
      2855 8057
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 284DEG 26KT 2881 8118 2881 8082

Combs

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
254 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW HAULOVER CANAL     28.78N 80.80W
06/04/2018  M46 MPH          Brevard            FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            GUST TO 40 KNOTS FROM NW AT USAF WIND TOWER 421.

&&

PG