Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
310 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Potential for Strong-Severe Storms Through This Evening...

.Current-Tonight...
Convection firing ahead of main squall line presently. Strengthening
low level wind fields over the region with many locations reporting
sfc winds gusting to around 35 mph outside of convection. Cape wind
profilers indicate 35-40kt LLJ just above the surface early this
afternoon. Any cells that move through will be capable of producing
winds of around 50 mph...even stronger where further intensification
takes place. Activity ahead of the main squall line will continue
during the mid-late afternoon. Prefrontal convective line moving
across northern sections getting better organized, with a few cells
also moving south and east of this area. Any of these cells will
also be capable of becoming strong-severe. Deep layer shear is
strongest to the north, but surface winds backed to SELY along the
Space and Treasure Coasts, helping to enhance directional shear in
those locations.

Activity will push through into this evening, with rain/storms
ending from NW-SE during the evening hours...and pushing south of
the Treasure Coast areas before midnight. Much drier and cooler air
arrives behind the front in the late night hours, with overnight
mins in the mid-upper 50s across much of the area, save for a few
lower 50s far north and lower 60s southern Treasure Coast.

Previous discussion follows...

Monday-Friday...a dry work week in store as southern extent of broad
mid-upper trough over the eastern U.S. early in the period gives way
to a shortwave ridge by midweek, then pattern aloft become mostly
zonal late week. Initial post-frontal airmass will result in a quite
cool mid April day Mon, with max temps some 8-14 degrees below
climo, coldest across the northern third of CWA. Max temps will then
begin to modify as surface high spreads from NE Gulf Tue to FL Wed
then into the Atlantic late week. Mins remaining below normal
Tue/Wed mornings (mostly in the 50s, but with some mid/upper 40s
across interior rural areas early Tue). Max temps return to near
normal Tue, then above Wed-Fri, although a cool wedge likely to work
onshore with a backdoor front Fri, lowering maxs to the upper
70s/lower 80s across Volusia/N Brevard Counties. Mins returning to
the 60s Thu-Fri, except some upper 50s across the northern interior.

Saturday...building high pressure well north of the state will cause
low level winds to veer easterly and gradient to increase some. Long
fetch of onshore flow will begin to tap an increasingly moist
upstream airmass, with prospect for isolated showers, initially
across the southern CWA. Temps near climo along the coast (except a
few degrees below north of the Cape) and several degrees above
across inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...South winds 16-14kt gusting to near 30kt outside of
convection this afternoon. Expect MVFR cig/vsby reductions in
widespread SHRA with ocnl IFR/LIFR TSRA with sfc winds G35KT through
late afternnon-evening as squall line pushes through. Activity winds
down from NW-SE and becoming VFR most locations by around 16/06z.

&&

.MARINE...

Through Tonight...Fresh to strong south winds through late afternoon
before veering to S/SW by late aftn/early evng with the passage of
the squall line. Strong-severe prefrontal storms pushing across the
coast and over the local waters in the late afternoon and into the
evening hours. Winds bcmg a moderate to fresh W/NW breeze overnight
as the front pushes in with precip ending from NW to SE. Seas
building to 6-8FT nearshore and 8-10FT offshore by late aftn...
subsiding to 4-6FT nearshore and 6-8FT offshore aft midnight as
winds veer to a more westerly component. Significant short pd chop
expected with the dvlpg offshore breeze.

Monday-Thursday...Strong post-frontal NW flow early Mon will
gradually lessen some during the day/overnight, but remaining near
15 kt. Seas gradually lowering toward 3-4 ft nearshore and up to 6
ft offshore by early Tue. Should be able to drop SCA for nearshore
and southern offshore leg early Mon, but likely will continue into
the afternoon for the offshore area from Sebastian north. Winds veer
north Tue and weaken substantially as surface high approaches. Flow
becoming S near 10 kt Wed night, then light S/SW Thu. Seas will
continue to subside, reaching 2-3 ft all waters Wed-Thu.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry airmass will remain in place for at least the first half of
the week. Low RH values may fall below 35 percent in a few locations
Monday, then over a larger portion of the area on Tuesday, as
temperatures rise but a dry air mass remains in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  52  67  50  74 /  50   0   0   0
MCO  56  72  52  77 /  40   0   0   0
MLB  59  75  51  75 /  60   0   0   0
VRB  59  76  51  76 /  70   0   0   0
LEE  54  70  51  76 /  30   0   0   0
SFB  54  72  50  78 /  40   0   0   0
ORL  56  72  53  79 /  40   0   0   0
FPR  60  76  50  77 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Volusia County-Indian River-Inland Volusia County-Martin-
     Northern Brevard County-Northern Lake County-Okeechobee-
     Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-Southern
     Lake County-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

Glitto/Cristaldi/Combs/Smith/Volkmer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
746 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-152145-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
746 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
There will be a slight risk of severe storms today as a strong
late season cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico toward the
Florida peninsula. A squall line is expected to develop ahead of
the front that will bring an organized band of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening. Strong and damaging
wind gusts, frequent lightning, and small hail will be possible.
as well as a brief tornadoes. People should monitor forecasts
today, especially those involved in outdoor events.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
Brisk southerly winds will prevail ahead of a strong cold front
that will push through central Florida this evening. Sustain winds
between 20 and 25 mph are expected, with frequent higher gusts. A
Lake Wind Advisory will be in effect between 10 AM and 8 PM today.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A squall line is expected to push across central Florida today
that will bring an organized band of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and this evening. Wind gusts of 35 knots or
greater, frequent lightning, and small hail will be possible,
especially as the storms approach and move off the east Florida
coast. Boaters should take steps to prepare for these storms.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
An organized squall line is expected to push across central
Florida this afternoon and this evening that may produce brief
waterspouts over the coastal waters and the inland lakes.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A fresh to strong southerly breeze will develop over the Atlantic
waters today as a late season cold front pushes across the Gulf of
Mexico. These winds will generate hazardous boating conditions as
seas build to 6 to 8 feet nearshore and 8 to 10 feet offshore.
Winds will shift to the west and northwest overnight as the cold
front pushes through central Florida. While the developing
offshore flow will result in lower wave heights, it also will
produce rough, short period chop. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out to 60 nautical
miles.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Brisk southerly winds in the surf zone today will produce a strong
longshore current flowing from the south toward the north. To avoid
the northward pull of a longshore current, swim toward shore, and
never swim directly against the ocean current. Check with your local
beach patrol for additional information about ocean hazards. Always
swim within sight of a lifeguard, and never swim alone.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Winds will diminish into Monday, but will remain strong enough to
require a Small Craft Advisory into the afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed.

Bragaw/Cristaldi

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